Chesham United vs Billericay Town Predictions
National League - South · England
Chesham United
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Billericay Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
Match Result
6.8/10Billericay Edge Chesham in Hard-Fought Away Victory at The Meadow
Billericay Town claimed a valuable 2-1 away win over Chesham United at The Meadow, capitalizing on a strong first-half performance to secure all three points in this National League South encounter. The visitors struck early, taking the lead in the 19th minute and doubling their advantage before the break, putting Chesham on the back foot. Chesham responded with renewed vigor after halftime, pulling a goal back in the 56th minute to set up a tense finale, but ultimately could not find an equalizer. Despite Chesham's second-half resurgence, Billericay's disciplined defensive display and clinical finishing in the opening period proved decisive. With no cards issued to either side, the contest was played in good spirit, but it was Billericay's early initiative and resolute game management that made the difference.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
19' — Goal
Billericay Town take the lead with a well-taken goal.
36' — Goal
Billericay Town double their advantage before halftime.
56' — Goal
Chesham United pull one back to set up a tense finish.
Chesham United
Chesham United struggled to impose themselves in the first half, conceding twice before the interval and finding themselves chasing the game. Their response after the break was commendable, as they pulled a goal back in the 56th minute and pressed hard for an equalizer. However, despite their efforts, they were unable to break down a well-organized Billericay defense in the closing stages. The lack of disciplinary issues reflected Chesham's focus on football, but their inability to convert pressure into clear chances ultimately cost them. The home side showed heart and determination, but were left to rue a sluggish start.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Billericay Town
Billericay Town delivered a composed away performance, seizing control with two well-taken goals in the 19th and 36th minutes. Their early attacking intent put Chesham on the defensive, and they managed the game effectively after the interval, absorbing pressure and maintaining their lead. The visitors' discipline was notable, as they avoided any bookings and stayed organized under Chesham's second-half pressure. Billericay's ability to capitalize on their chances and defend resolutely was key to their victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With lineups unavailable, both teams appeared to favor a balanced approach, but Billericay's early attacking intent paid dividends. Their ability to strike twice in the first half suggests effective use of width and incisive passing to break down Chesham's defense. After the break, Billericay shifted to a more compact shape, focusing on protecting their lead and absorbing Chesham's pressure. Chesham, meanwhile, adjusted tactically in the second half, increasing their attacking numbers and pressing higher up the pitch. Their improved energy and commitment yielded a goal, but Billericay's disciplined defensive lines and organization ultimately frustrated the hosts' attempts to draw level.
Turning Point
Billericay's second goal in the 36th minute gave them a crucial cushion, forcing Chesham to chase the game and allowing Billericay to manage the tempo after halftime.
Man of the Match
Billericay Town First Goalscorer
Opened the scoring and set the tone for Billericay's crucial away win.
Chesham United vs Billericay Town: Match Preview
Chesham United and Billericay Town both enter this fixture with 7 points from the opening rounds, sitting 14th and 13th in the National League South table respectively. Chesham are unbeaten at The Meadow (1 win, 1 draw), while Billericay have split their away results (1 win, 2 losses), and both sides have shown patchy form—Chesham's last five read DWWLL, Billericay's LDWLW. With neither side establishing real momentum, the stakes are about establishing mid-table stability rather than chasing the leaders.
The statistical matchup is finely balanced. Chesham average 1.67 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, while Billericay post 1.6 and 1.2. Chesham's last five have seen 10 goals for and 6 against, while Billericay's have produced 8 for and 6 against. Both teams tend to score early—Billericay have netted 6 first-half goals in their last five, Chesham 5. Clean sheets are sporadic (Chesham 2 in 5, Billericay 1 in 5), and both sides have failed to score at least once. With no relevant H2H trend and no significant injuries, the game is likely to be decided by which attack finds more consistency on the day.
Given the near-identical scoring and concession rates, plus the lack of a home or away dominance, the model projects a low-variance, competitive match. The most probable outcome is a draw, with 1-1 the likeliest scoreline, and a slight lean towards under 2.5 goals based on Billericay's more conservative away results. Margins are fine, and a single lapse at either end could swing it.
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chesham United vs Billericay Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chesham United vs Billericay Town that most previews miss.
- 1Billericay Town have scored six of their last eight goals in the first half, suggesting early attacking intent.
- 2Chesham United's home matches have averaged just 2.0 total goals per game so far, below their overall season average.
- 3Both teams have seen BTTS land in only 2 of their last 5 matches, despite averaging over 1.5 goals scored per game each.
Who do you think wins: Chesham United vs Billericay Town?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chesham United vs Billericay Town(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
Both teams have identical points (7) and very similar season scoring/conceding rates (Chesham 1.67/1.5, Billericay 1.6/1.2), with neither side showing a clear superiority in home or away splits. The model's draw probability (0.36) reflects this statistical parity.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Despite Chesham's high over 2.5 rate (66.7%), the combined season average for both teams is 2.6 goals per game and Billericay matches have only gone over 2.5 in 40% of cases, suggesting the market may overrate the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
Read more ↓
More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Chesham United vs Billericay Town Prediction
Statistically, this is a meeting of two mid-table sides with closely matched profiles: Chesham United average 1.67 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, while Billericay Town are at 1.6 and 1.2 respectively. Both have 7 points, and neither has a clear home or away edge, with Chesham unbeaten at home (1W, 1D) and Billericay splitting their away record (1W, 2L, 4-4 aggregate). The underlying rates point to a balanced contest with little to separate them.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Chesham United's home matches average 2.0 goals per game (4 scored, 2 conceded in 2 matches).
- →Billericay Town have scored 4 and conceded 4 in 3 away games, showing no major travel drop-off.
- →Both teams have failed to score in at least one of their last five, but also kept at least one clean sheet.
How Chesham United and Billericay Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chesham United vs Billericay Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Chesham Unitedlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Billericay Townlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chesham United have stabilised after a shaky start, taking 7 points from their last three matches (DWW) following two early defeats. Billericay Town's form is more inconsistent, alternating wins and losses in their last five (LDWLW), and they come off a narrow away defeat. Both sides have shown flashes of attacking quality but lack sustained momentum.
Chesham United vs Billericay Town — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Chesham United vs Billericay Town
Only one head-to-head is on record, a 2-0 Chesham win away in the FA Trophy back in 2015. With no recent meetings and major squad turnover likely, there is no relevant H2H trend to inform this fixture.
Chesham United vs Billericay Town Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Chesham United wins
0
Draws
1
Billericay Town wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Chesham United vs Billericay Town
With no bookmaker odds available, the model cannot identify explicit value edges. However, the probabilities suggest the market may overrate the likelihood of a home win and a high-scoring game, given the close statistical profiles and Billericay's more conservative away results.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Chesham United vs Billericay Town
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Lack of shots, possession, and set-piece data limits precision on attacking/defensive quality.
- ⚠️Only one historical H2H, from 2015, is not relevant for current squad analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chesham United 1–1 Billericay TownThe model calls a 1-1 draw, with the strongest anchor being the teams' virtually identical season scoring and conceding rates (Chesham 1.67/1.5, Billericay 1.6/1.2). The most plausible way this goes wrong is if either side capitalises on an early goal, opening up a match that otherwise profiles as statistically balanced.
Chesham United vs Billericay Town: Common Questions
Who will win Chesham United vs Billericay Town?
The model gives Chesham United a 37% chance, the draw 36%, and Billericay Town 27%. Both teams have identical points and similar goal records, so a draw is the most probable outcome.
Will both teams score in Chesham United vs Billericay Town?
There is a 53% probability of both teams scoring, based on both sides averaging over 1.5 goals per game and each keeping only one or two clean sheets in their last five.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in Chesham United vs Billericay Town?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly more probable at 52%, despite Chesham's high season over 2.5 rate (67%), because Billericay's matches have gone over 2.5 only 40% of the time and both teams' away/home splits are tighter.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chesham United vs Billericay Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Chesham United vs Billericay Town Resources
Chesham United Predictions
All Chesham United fixtures & tips
Billericay Town Predictions
All Billericay Town fixtures & tips
Chesham United vs Billericay Town Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
National League - South Predictions
All fixtures for this competition
Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results