Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W Predictions
FA Women's Cup · England
Chesterfield W
AI Predicted Score
1 - 3
Leafield Athletic W
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Leafield Athletic W Win
Recommended Bets: Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W
Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W: Match Preview
Chesterfield W approach this cup fixture on the back of two consecutive defeats, having shipped eight goals in one of those and failing to score in their most recent outing. Their only recorded match this season ended in a 0-0 draw, but the broader recent record shows a defence that has struggled to contain opposition attacks. Leafield Athletic W, meanwhile, arrive with momentum after a 4-0 win in their only cup match this season and a five-match average of 3.4 goals scored per game, underlining their attacking threat.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by Leafield's prolific attack against a Chesterfield back line that has conceded heavily in recent cup campaigns. While both teams have a 100% clean sheet rate in their single cup match this season, Chesterfield's last five have seen them allow 3.67 goals per game, and Leafield have twice scored four or more in their last three. With little data on set pieces or cards, the main variable is open-play efficiency, where Leafield's recent numbers are far superior.
The model expects Leafield Athletic W to dictate the tempo and create the majority of high-quality chances, projecting a 60% probability of an away win and a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals. Chesterfield's best hope lies in restricting the pace and volume of attacks, but the underlying rates suggest a likely away victory with multiple goals scored.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 2.20
Over 2.5 Goals
66%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-2 · 1-1 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W that most previews miss.
- 1Leafield Athletic W's last five matches have averaged 4.4 total goals per game.
- 2Chesterfield W have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding 3.67 per game.
- 3Both teams' only cup match this season ended in a clean sheet, but all other recent matches have seen at least two goals.
Who do you think wins: Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Leafield Athletic W Win
Leafield Athletic W have averaged 3.4 goals scored and just 1 conceded per match across their last five, while Chesterfield W have lost two straight and conceded 3.67 per game in that span. The model assigns a 60% probability to the away win, driven by Leafield's superior recent scoring rates.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Leafield Athletic W's last five matches have seen an average of 4.4 total goals, and their only cup match this season finished 4-0. Chesterfield W have conceded eight in a single recent cup outing. The model projects a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals.
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The Case For This Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W Prediction
This tie sets up a clear contrast in recent scoring rates, with Leafield Athletic W entering on the back of a 4-0 cup win and a five-match average of 3.4 goals scored per game, while Chesterfield W have struggled defensively, conceding 3.67 goals per match across their last three outings. Chesterfield's only cup action this season ended in a 0-0 draw, but their prior results include a heavy 0-8 defeat, signalling vulnerability against higher-scoring sides. Leafield Athletic W's attack is the statistical standout, having netted four or more in two of their last three, including an 8-0 rout. Chesterfield W, by contrast, have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five and have scored just once in their last two. The model expects Leafield's offensive output to test a home defence that has shown little resistance in recent cup campaigns. With neither side providing much data on set pieces or discipline, the goal environment is likely to be shaped by open play rather than dead-ball situations. Given the disparity in recent scoring and conceding rates, the model projects Leafield Athletic W as strong favourites, with a 60% win probability and a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals. Chesterfield W's best route to an upset would be a low-event match, but the underlying numbers point to a likely away win with multiple goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Leafield Athletic W average 3.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game in their last five matches.
- →Chesterfield W have conceded 3.67 goals per game across their last three matches, including an 0-8 defeat.
- →Both teams have a 100% clean sheet rate in their single cup match this season, but sample sizes are minimal.
How Chesterfield W and Leafield Athletic W Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Chesterfield Wlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Leafield Athletic Wlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Chesterfield W come into this tie off the back of two defeats, including a heavy 0-8 loss, and have conceded an average of 3.67 goals per game in their last three. Leafield Athletic W have won three of their last five, including a 4-0 victory in their most recent cup match, and are averaging 3.4 goals scored per game over that span.
Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W — Last 1 Matches
Strengths
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 3.7 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 3.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Things to Watch: Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W
- ⚠️Very limited season data for both teams; most rates are based on small samples.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️No head-to-head, standings, or set piece/discipline data; model confidence is reduced.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chesterfield W 1–3 Leafield Athletic WThe model projects a 3-1 away win for Leafield Athletic W, with their recent scoring rate of 3.4 goals per game the single strongest data point in their favour. The main risk to this outcome is the limited sample size for both sides' current season form, which could mask underlying volatility or tactical changes.
Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W: Common Questions
Who will win Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W?
Leafield Athletic W are strong statistical favourites, with a 60% win probability based on their recent average of 3.4 goals scored per game and Chesterfield W's defensive struggles.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W?
The model assigns a 66% probability to over 2.5 goals, driven by Leafield's high-scoring recent matches and Chesterfield's average of 3.67 goals conceded per game across their last three.
What is the recent form for Chesterfield W and Leafield Athletic W?
Chesterfield W have lost two of their last three, conceding heavily, while Leafield Athletic W have won three of their last five and scored at least three goals in each of those wins.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chesterfield W vs Leafield Athletic W: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 8 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
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