Colombia vs Jordan Prediction
Colombia Heavy Favourites Against Jordan in World Cup 2026 Warm-Up
International Friendly · World
Colombia
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Jordan
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.35
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
65%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Colombia vs Jordan Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Colombia vs Jordan?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Colombia vs Jordan Prediction
Colombia enter this friendly at Snapdragon Stadium as clear favourites over Jordan, with a commanding Elo edge of +285 points (1975 vs 1690) and a top-10 global ranking. The model projects Colombia to control proceedings, with a final expected goals line of 2.34 for the hosts against just 0.98 for Jordan. The most likely scoreline is a 2-0 Colombia win, but Jordan's recent attacking form suggests they could trouble the scoresheet. Colombia's attacking depth, led by L. J. Suárez and R. Martínez, is expected to overwhelm a Jordanian side that has struggled defensively against higher-ranked opponents. The model gives Colombia a 67.5% win probability, reflecting both their superior squad quality and recent momentum.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
xG factor — Colombia 1.09× · Jordan 0.76×
- →Colombia's attack boosted by recent form (1.18x momentum multiplier)
Defence
Suppression — Colombia 0.80× · Jordan 0.80×
- →Jordan's defense has a suppression factor of 0.8 but faces much stronger opposition
Match Context
- →Colombia's Elo rating is 285 points higher than Jordan's (1975 vs 1690)
- →Final model expected goals: Colombia 2.34, Jordan 0.98
- →Most likely scorelines: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.5%)
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
xG Attack Strength
Top-11 expected-goals output, adjusted for finishing efficiency and chance quality. 1.00× is the tournament median.
Colombia
1.09×Top-11 xG
126
Finishing
1.20×
Chance qual.
0.88×
- L. J. Suárez F23.3 xG
- R. Martínez F19.8 xG
- L. Díaz M15.1 xG
- C. Hernández F11.1 xG
- Y. Asprilla M10.3 xG
Jordan
0.76×Top-11 xG
23
Finishing
1.20×
Chance qual.
0.88×
- A. Olwan F5.3 xG
- M. Tamari F5.2 xG
- I. Sabra F3.2 xG
- A. Al-Azaizah F2.4 xG
- Y. Al-Arab D2.0 xG
Defensive Suppression
Defender & midfield ball-winning (tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks). Higher = more suppression of the opponent's attack.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.87 · 0.73
From xG
1.77 · 1.24
Blended
2.34 · 0.98
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Colombia attacking form lifts their goals ×1.18; Jordan's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.08.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Colombia goals, columns = Jordan goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
8.5%
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with a strong Elo baseline: Colombia's rating of 1975 (ranked 7th) dwarfs Jordan's 1690 (ranked 50th), giving Colombia a home-expected score of 0.838. This sets the foundation for a clear Colombian advantage. Next, the model blends each team's attacking and defensive metrics. Colombia's attack factor of 1.09 (boosted by high finishing quality and top-11 xG) faces a Jordanian defense with a suppression factor of 0.8. Jordan's attack, while showing some finishing efficiency, is less threatening with a factor of 0.76 and faces a Colombian defense of similar suppression strength. Recent form momentum is then applied: Colombia's attack gets an 18% boost, raising their expected goals from a blended 1.83 to a final 2.34, while Jordan's modest 2.7% attack boost takes them to 0.98 expected goals. Finally, these adjusted expected goals are run through a Poisson distribution to generate precise scoreline probabilities. The highest likelihood is a 2-0 Colombia win (9.9%), but 2-1 and 1-0 are also prominent. Overall, the model gives Colombia a 67.5% chance of victory, with the draw and Jordan win far less likely.
More Friendlies Predictions
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Colombia vs Jordan
No bookmaker odds are currently available for this fixture, so we cannot identify any value bets at this time. Should odds become available, the model's strong preference for Colombia and the high likelihood of over 2.5 goals would be areas to watch for potential value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Colombia vs Jordan Confirmed Lineups
Colombia
Jordan
Colombia vs Jordan Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Colombialast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Jordanlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Colombia have won three of their last five, averaging 2 goals scored per match, but have managed just one clean sheet in that span. Their recent form is trending positively, as reflected in the model's momentum boost. Jordan, meanwhile, have mixed results (LDDWW) but have scored in every recent match, showing some attacking promise despite a leaky defense. Both sides have seen high-scoring games, but international form data can be sparse and may not fully capture current squad dynamics.
Colombia vs Jordan — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
- +Dominant in possession — 59% avg
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
🚩 Colombia vs Jordan Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Colombia and 4 for Jordan, for an expected total of 8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 41% · Over 10.5: 18%.
What History Says: Colombia vs Jordan
There is no notable head-to-head history between Colombia and Jordan, as these teams rarely meet in international play. This lack of direct data means the model relies heavily on relative Elo, squad metrics, and recent form to assess the matchup.
Colombia vs Jordan Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
Colombia wins
0
Draws
0
Jordan wins
Things to Watch: Colombia vs Jordan
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available for this match, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable due to squad rotation and experimental lineups.
- ⚠️Recent form data for national teams is limited and may not fully reflect current squad strength.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Colombia vs Jordan: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.