Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal Predictions
Major League Soccer · USA
Colorado Rapids
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
CF Montreal
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4.02
Match Result
7.2/10Colorado Rapids Edge CF Montreal 1-0 in Hard-Fought MLS Battle
Colorado Rapids secured a narrow 1-0 victory over CF Montreal at Dick's Sporting Goods Park, thanks to a decisive first-half goal. The Rapids dominated possession with 58% and peppered the Montreal goal with 18 shots—seven of them on target—showcasing their attacking intent throughout the match. Montreal, though less prolific in front of goal, remained competitive and threatened with 11 shots, five of which tested the home goalkeeper. The only goal of the match came just before halftime, providing Colorado with a crucial advantage that they managed to defend staunchly after the break. Both sides showed discipline and commitment, with a total of three yellow cards issued but no reds. Despite late pressure from Montreal, the Rapids' backline held firm to secure all three points in a closely contested encounter.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
43' — Goal
D. Yapi scores for Colorado Rapids, giving the home side a 1-0 lead just before halftime.
52' — Yellow Card
H. Ojediran (Colorado Rapids) shown yellow for a tactical foul in midfield.
61' — Yellow Card
S. Piette (CF Montreal) booked for a late challenge as Montreal pushed forward.
75' — Yellow Card
M. Navarro (Colorado Rapids) cautioned for time-wasting as Rapids defend their lead.
Colorado Rapids
The Rapids put in a commanding display at home, controlling the tempo with 58% possession and creating the better chances. Their 18 shots and seven on target reflected their attacking ambition, while the midfield trio ensured Montreal struggled to build sustained pressure. Defensively, Colorado remained organized, limiting Montreal to just one corner and five shots on target, all of which were handled by goalkeeper N. Defreitas. A well-timed goal before halftime gave them the edge, and although they picked up two yellow cards, the Rapids maintained composure to see out the result.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
CF Montreal
CF Montreal battled valiantly but ultimately fell short in Colorado. With only 42% possession, they found themselves on the back foot for much of the match, though they still managed 11 shots and five on target. The midfield struggled to assert itself, and the attack was largely contained by Colorado’s disciplined defense. Montreal’s lone corner kick highlighted their difficulties in creating sustained pressure. Defensively, they worked hard to keep the deficit to a single goal, with goalkeeper S. Breza making several important stops. However, a lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-3-3 formation, but Colorado’s midfield trio—anchored by P. Aaronson—dictated play and allowed the Rapids to build attacks patiently. Their wide forwards stretched Montreal’s backline, creating space for D. Yapi to exploit, as seen in the decisive goal. Colorado’s pressing forced turnovers and limited Montreal’s ability to play out from the back. Montreal attempted to counter through the pace of D. Sealy and P. Owusu, but with only one corner and limited possession, their attacks were sporadic. Defensive discipline kept them in the contest, but a lack of creativity in midfield and few tactical adjustments from the bench left them chasing the game.
Turning Point
D. Yapi’s goal in the 43rd minute shifted momentum firmly in Colorado’s favor and proved to be the match-winner.
Man of the Match
D. Yapi
Scored the only goal and led the line with energy and intent throughout.
Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal: Match Preview
Colorado Rapids return home after a heavy 0-3 defeat at Columbus, but their overall trajectory at Dick's Sporting Goods Park remains strong—eight wins in eleven home fixtures and three clean sheets in their last five. Sitting seventh in the standings, Rapids are firmly in the playoff hunt, while Montreal languish in 15th, having conceded a league-high 48 goals and won just twice on the road all season. Montreal's recent form is patchy: a 1-7 collapse at Inter Miami was followed by a battling draw at Vancouver and a narrow loss in Philadelphia, underlining their unpredictability.
Statistically, this is a clash between one of the league's stingiest home defences and its most generous away rearguard. Rapids' attack, however, is sputtering—just four goals in their last five, with two blanks—while Montreal, for all their defensive woes, have scored in four of five and boast a high BTTS rate (4/5). Rapids average 14.6 shots and 5 corners per game at home, but their conversion rate is down. Montreal, meanwhile, concede 2.6 goals per game over the last five and allow plenty of space in transition, but their early-goal threat (four first-half goals recently) could trouble a Rapids side that tends to start slowly.
The model expects Colorado's home strength to prevail, but not without resistance. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, but the value in the market is slim—bookmakers are pricing the Rapids as much stronger favourites than the data justifies. With both teams' recent goal patterns and Montreal's capacity to disrupt, a draw is not out of the question if Rapids' attack fails to click.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal
There is little to no value at current market prices: the home win and over 2.5 goals are both priced in line with or shorter than the model's probabilities. The draw at 4.00 is the only selection matching the model's 25% probability, but not offering a positive edge. This suggests the market is accurately reflecting the likely outcomes, and there are no obvious value bets unless odds drift before kickoff.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.02
The draw price at 4.00 matches the model's 25% probability, making it the only selection where market and model are in alignment without a negative edge. Both teams have shown inconsistency, with Colorado failing to score in two of their last five and Montreal drawing six times this season, so a stalemate is plausible if Rapids' home attack stalls.
Read more ↓
Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal that most previews miss.
- 1Colorado Rapids have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, but have failed to score in two of those games.
- 2Montreal's away matches average 4.2 total goals this season, with 65% finishing over 2.5 goals.
- 3Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have seen at least three goals, with Colorado scoring four or more in four of those.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 2.10
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
2-1 · 1-1 · 2-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
More Major League Soccer Predictions
The Case For This Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal Prediction
Bookmakers have Colorado Rapids as clear favourites at 1.62, but the data suggests the gulf is narrower. Rapids' home record is imposing (eight wins from eleven), yet their attack has cooled—averaging just 0.8 goals over the last five games. Montreal's away form is dire defensively, conceding 35 in twelve, but they've managed to score in four of their last five and have a knack for making things awkward on the road. The tactical contrast is stark: Rapids dominate possession at home (57.4% last five) and rack up corners (5 per game), but their shot conversion has dipped. Montreal, meanwhile, are porous at the back (2.6 conceded per game last five) but have found the net early—four first-half goals in that same span. Rapids' defence has been sturdy at home, with three clean sheets in their last five overall, but Montreal's BTTS rate (four of last five) hints at both sides getting chances. The model expects Colorado's home strength to edge it, but not by the margin the market implies. A 2-1 home win is most likely, but with Rapids' recent attacking struggles and Montreal's ability to score even when outplayed, a draw is not out of the question—especially if Rapids fail to convert early pressure.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Colorado Rapids have won eight of eleven home matches this season, conceding just nine goals at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.
- →CF Montreal have lost nine of twelve away, conceding a league-worst 35 goals on their travels.
- →Rapids have kept three clean sheets in their last five, but have failed to score in two of those games.
🚩 Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Colorado Rapids and 3.8 for CF Montreal, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How Colorado Rapids and CF Montreal Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Colorado Rapidslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
CF Montreallast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Colorado Rapids come in with a mixed run—three wins and two losses in their last five, including back-to-back home clean sheets but also two matches without scoring. Montreal's recent form is more erratic: just one win in their last five, but four matches with at least one goal scored and a high rate of both teams scoring.
Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
What History Says: Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal
Colorado have had the upper hand in this fixture, winning six of the last ten encounters and scoring four or more in four of those. Montreal's only two wins in this period came away, but they've failed to beat Colorado in the last three meetings. High-scoring games have been common, with seven of ten finishing over 2.5 goals.
Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Colorado Rapids wins
2
Draws
2
CF Montreal wins
Things to Watch: Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal
- ⚠️Montreal's defensive volatility makes their matches hard to price—recently conceded seven at Inter Miami but also drew at Vancouver.
- ⚠️Colorado's attack is in a dry spell, averaging just 0.8 goals per game over the last five.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but both sides have rotated lineups in recent weeks, adding some uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Colorado Rapids 2–1 CF MontrealThe model calls this 2-1 to Colorado Rapids, with their dominant home record (eight wins from eleven) the single strongest data point. However, the lack of value at the current home odds and Rapids' recent attacking struggles mean a draw is a real risk, especially if Montreal strike first or Rapids' conversion issues persist.
Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal: Common Questions
Who will win Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal?
Colorado Rapids are favoured with a 59% probability of victory based on their strong home record, but the model sees less of a gap than the bookmakers, with a 25% chance of a draw and 16% for a Montreal upset.
Will both teams score in Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal?
Both teams to score is rated at 55%, reflecting Montreal's high BTTS rate (four of the last five) and Colorado's tendency to concede when their attack stalls.
Is there value in betting on Colorado Rapids at the current odds?
At 1.62, the implied probability for a Rapids win is 62%, but the model gives them a 59% chance—meaning there's no positive expected value at the current price, and the market may be overestimating their edge.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Colorado Rapids vs CF Montreal: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.