Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Coritiba
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
Chapecoense-sc
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.75(+21% edge)
Match Result
7.3/10Coritiba Edge Chapecoense in Tense 2-1 Thriller at Couto Pereira
Coritiba clinched a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Chapecoense at the Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, with late drama ensuring a nail-biting finish. The hosts struck first in the 31st minute and doubled their lead late on, only for Chapecoense to pull one back in stoppage time, setting up a frantic finale. Despite being out-possessed for much of the match, Coritiba’s efficiency in front of goal and defensive resilience proved decisive.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
31' — Goal
Pedro Rocha puts Coritiba ahead with a composed finish after a swift attacking move.
83' — Goal
Breno Lopes doubles Coritiba’s lead, capitalizing on a rare spell of sustained pressure.
90' — Goal
Giovanni Augusto pulls one back for Chapecoense, setting up a tense finale.
45' — Yellow Card
Thiago Santos (Coritiba) receives a booking for a tactical foul.
57' — Yellow Card
Bruno Matias (Chapecoense) shown yellow after a late challenge in midfield.
Coritiba
Coritiba made the most of their 36% possession, registering 15 shots and 4 on target. The home side’s compact 4-2-3-1 shape allowed them to absorb pressure and break with intent, capitalizing on their chances to secure a crucial win. Their defensive discipline and ability to strike at key moments were instrumental, even as Chapecoense dominated the ball.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense controlled 64% of the ball and managed 11 shots (3 on target), but struggled to break down Coritiba’s disciplined defense until the dying moments. Their patient build-up and width created openings, but a lack of cutting edge in the final third proved costly. A late goal in the 90th minute was too little, too late, as they left Curitiba empty-handed despite a spirited effort.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides deployed a 4-2-3-1 formation, but the tactical execution differed markedly. Coritiba sat deep, inviting Chapecoense’s pressure and looking to spring forward quickly through their attacking midfield trio. Their transitions were sharp, and the full-backs provided just enough width to stretch Chapecoense’s lines. Chapecoense, meanwhile, monopolized possession and probed patiently, but their lack of incisiveness in the box limited their effectiveness. Substitutions in the second half saw both teams inject fresh legs in midfield, but Coritiba’s compactness and discipline held firm until the late scare.
Turning Point
Breno Lopes’ 83rd-minute goal, which gave Coritiba a crucial two-goal cushion and ultimately secured the points despite Chapecoense’s late reply.
Man of the Match
Pedro Rocha
His opening goal and tireless work leading the line set the tone for Coritiba’s victory.
Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc: Match Preview
Coritiba return to Curitiba after a run of mixed results, sitting 11th with 27 points and a negative goal difference. Their recent form string of 'LDLLW' includes a narrow home defeat to Cruzeiro and a goalless draw away at Bragantino, highlighting ongoing issues in attack. Chapecoense-sc, rooted to the bottom of the table with just 10 points from 20 games, have not won away all season and come into this off a 2-2 draw at Santos and a heavy 0-4 loss to Flamengo.
The tactical matchup is defined by Chapecoense's anaemic attack and leaky defence: they average just 0.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per away game, while Coritiba's home record is modest (1.1 goals for, 1.2 against per home match). Both sides have failed to score in three of their last five, and neither has kept more than one clean sheet in that stretch. Discipline could play a role, with both averaging nearly 8 fouls per match and Chapecoense picking up four yellows at Santos.
Despite the short price on Coritiba, the model sees more value in opposing goals than backing the hosts outright. Chapecoense's travel sickness and lack of firepower point to a low-scoring home win, but Coritiba's own attacking limitations mean a 2-0 or 1-0 is more likely than a rout. The edge lies in the BTTS 'no' market, where the visitors' scoring record and the hosts' defensive stability converge.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc
The market's odds on Coritiba are short, leaving little value in the home win, but the BTTS 'no' market stands out: the model's 69% probability far exceeds the 57% implied by 1.75 odds. With both sides struggling for goals and Chapecoense-sc especially blunt away, this is the clearest edge. The draw is also slightly undervalued by the market, but the margin is slim.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.81
Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in three of their last five and average just 0.6 goals per away game, while Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 29% of matches and conceded only one goal in their last two at home; the model gives a 69% chance of BTTS 'no', well above the implied 57% from the odds.
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Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc that most previews miss.
- 1Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in three of their last five league matches and in 70% of their away games this season.
- 2Coritiba's last three home games have all gone under 2.5 goals, with just two goals scored in total by the hosts.
- 3Across the last ten H2H meetings, the home side has kept a clean sheet in five, suggesting a trend towards low-scoring home wins.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
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The Case For This Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction
The market has installed Coritiba as strong favourites at 1.53, but recent form for both sides is patchy, and neither attack has been especially prolific. Chapecoense-sc's away record is dire, with no wins and just six goals in ten road games, while Coritiba's home output is modest but steadier. The data points to a low-scoring contest where the home side's defensive edge and the visitors' bluntness away from home are decisive.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Coritiba have failed to score in three of their last five but face a defence conceding over two goals per game.
Match Context
- →Chapecoense-sc have the league's worst away record (0W, 3D, 7L) and average just 0.6 goals per away match.
- →BTTS has landed in just 2 of Coritiba's last 5 and 2 of Chapecoense's last 5.
🚩 Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Coritiba and 4 for Chapecoense-sc, for an expected total of 9.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 59% · Over 10.5: 33%.
How Coritiba and Chapecoense-sc Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Coritibalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chapecoense-sclast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Coritiba's recent form is inconsistent, with just one win in their last five and three games without a goal. Chapecoense-sc are in even worse shape, winless in their last five league matches and conceding heavily, particularly away from home. Both sides have struggled to find the net, but Chapecoense's defensive frailty is more pronounced.
Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc
The head-to-head is remarkably balanced, with four wins each and two draws in the last ten meetings. Notably, recent games in Curitiba have tended towards low scores, and the last meeting did finish 3-3, but that was an outlier in an otherwise cagey series.
Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Coritiba wins
2
Draws
4
Chapecoense-sc wins
Things to Watch: Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc
- ⚠️Coritiba's own attack has struggled for consistency, failing to score in three of their last five.
- ⚠️Chapecoense-sc's defensive collapses have sometimes come against stronger attacks than Coritiba's.
- ⚠️Market odds already reflect Coritiba's home edge, limiting value on the 1x2 favourite.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Coritiba 2–0 Chapecoense-scCoritiba to win 2-0 is the model's call, driven by Chapecoense-sc's chronic away scoring issues and a defensive record that gives the hosts a clear edge. The strongest data point is Chapecoense's 0.6 goals per away game and 0% away win rate. The biggest risk is Coritiba's own recent attacking struggles, which could see them labour to break down even a porous defence.
Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc: Common Questions
Who will win Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
The model rates Coritiba as 59% likely to win, with a 27% chance of a draw and just 14% for Chapecoense-sc. The home side's superior defensive numbers and the visitors' poor away form underpin this edge.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Both teams to score is rated just 31% likely, with 'no' at 69%. Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in three of their last five and average only 0.6 goals away from home.
Is there value in betting against goals in this match?
Yes, the BTTS 'no' market offers significant value: the model's 69% probability is well above the 57% implied by odds of 1.75, making it the best data-backed angle.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Coritiba vs Chapecoense-sc: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.