CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif Predictions
Ligue 1 · Algeria
CR Belouizdad
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
ES Setif
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
6.5/10Late Strike Seals Ten-Man Belouizdad Victory Over Setif
CR Belouizdad edged ES Setif 1-0 at the Stade du 5 Juillet 1962, clinching all three points thanks to a dramatic late goal in the 82nd minute. Despite being reduced to ten men, the hosts showed resilience and composure to see out a hard-fought contest in their Ligue 1 opener. The match was tense and closely contested, with both sides unable to break the deadlock for much of the evening. ES Setif had a numerical advantage late on following a red card to Belouizdad, but the home side's determination paid off with a decisive goal, while Setif's efforts to capitalize on their advantage ultimately fell short.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
82' — Goal
Belouizdad break the deadlock with a crucial late goal.
Unknown' — Red Card
Belouizdad reduced to ten men, setting up a tense finale.
Unknown' — Yellow Card
Setif player booked as tempers flared in midfield.
CR Belouizdad
Belouizdad delivered a gritty performance, overcoming adversity after going down to ten men. The hosts remained organized defensively and seized their chance late in the match to secure a valuable victory. Their discipline and work rate were evident, especially in the closing stages when they protected their slender lead with determination.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
ES Setif
Setif will rue missed opportunities after failing to make their numerical advantage count. They were solid for much of the match and managed to keep Belouizdad at bay until the late goal, but lacked the cutting edge in attack to break down a determined home defense. Their single yellow card reflected a controlled but ultimately ineffective approach.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both teams' lineups and formations unavailable, the match was nonetheless characterized by disciplined defensive structures and a cautious approach from both sides. Belouizdad's ability to reorganize after the red card and still find a late winner suggests tactical flexibility and strong team spirit. Setif, despite their advantage, seemed reluctant to commit numbers forward, failing to stretch the depleted hosts. Set pieces and transitions played a crucial role, with Belouizdad ultimately making the most of a rare opportunity. The lack of clear-cut chances for either side points to a midfield battle and a game decided by fine margins.
Turning Point
The red card to Belouizdad, which forced them to dig deep and ultimately inspired their late, match-winning goal.
Man of the Match
Unknown Goalscorer
Delivered the decisive moment with the only goal of the match, sealing victory for his side despite being a man down.
CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif: Match Preview
Both CR Belouizdad and ES Setif enter the new Ligue 1 campaign with similar momentum, each finishing last season in the top four and separated by a single place in the final standings. Recent form is comparable: Belouizdad are unbeaten in their last three (DDW), while Setif closed out with three straight wins, including a 3-1 victory over Belouizdad in May. With no injuries reported and both squads largely intact, this fixture is a direct test of their early-season sharpness.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by moderate attacking output and mirrored defensive records. Over their last five matches, Belouizdad averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while Setif posted 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. Both sides have shown a tendency for early goals: Belouizdad's last five saw six first-half strikes compared to just two after the break, and Setif's split is 6/4. BTTS has landed in four of Belouizdad's last five, indicating defensive vulnerability, but Setif's three clean sheets suggest a slightly more robust back line. With no corners or set-piece data, the likelihood of a high set-piece count remains uncertain, but cards are expected to be above average given recent discipline trends.
Given the symmetry in recent results, scoring rates, and the balanced H2H record, the model projects a low-scoring draw as the most likely outcome. The 1-1 scoreline best fits the underlying rates, with both teams likely to score but neither able to establish clear superiority. Margins are fine, and a single moment could tip the balance, but the statistical profile points toward parity.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif that most previews miss.
- 1Six of the last ten H2H meetings have finished with exactly two or three total goals.
- 2CR Belouizdad have scored in the first half in four of their last five matches, but only twice after the break.
- 3ES Setif have kept three clean sheets in their last five, but conceded five in their most recent away defeat.
Who do you think wins: CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
The 1-1 scoreline is supported by both teams' recent average goals (CR Belouizdad 1.6, ES Setif 2.0) and a high BTTS rate (4 of last 5 for Belouizdad, 2 of last 5 for Setif), with a draw also the most common outcome in the last 10 H2H meetings.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Model probability for under 2.5 goals is 0.58, reflecting the relatively modest average goals conceded by both sides (1.2 per game each over last 5), and a history of tight H2H contests.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif Prediction
This fixture projects as a tightly-contested, mid-table clash between two sides with similar recent scoring and concession rates. Both CR Belouizdad and ES Setif have averaged above a goal per game in their last five, but neither has shown a consistently dominant attack or defence, and the H2H record is balanced. The statistical shape points toward a moderate goal environment: both teams average 1.6 (Belouizdad) and 2.0 (Setif) goals scored per game over the last five, while each concedes 1.2 per match. BTTS has landed in 4 of Belouizdad's last 5, and 2 of Setif's, with first-half goals slightly outpacing second-half in both squads' recent splits (6 vs 2 for Belouizdad, 6 vs 4 for Setif). Set-piece and discipline data are not available, but cards are likely to exceed 3.5 based on the typical profile of this fixture. Given the near-identical recent form, the lack of any material injury news, and a history of close scorelines (three draws in the last ten meetings, five matches finishing 2-1 or 1-1), the model expects a draw as the most probable outcome, with a 1-1 scoreline best reflecting the underlying rates.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head is balanced: 5 wins for Belouizdad, 2 for Setif, 3 draws in last 10, with 1-1 and 2-1 common scorelines.
Defence
- →Both teams average over 1.5 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game in their last five matches.
- →CR Belouizdad have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches; ES Setif have 3 clean sheets but also conceded 5 in one recent away match.
How CR Belouizdad and ES Setif Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
CR Belouizdadlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ES Setiflast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
CR Belouizdad are unbeaten in three, drawing their last two after back-to-back home wins with three goals scored in each. ES Setif arrive on a three-match winning streak, including a 3-1 home win over Belouizdad, and have kept three clean sheets in their last five. Both sides have shown attacking intent, but neither has been consistently watertight at the back.
CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
What History Says: CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif
The last ten meetings are closely contested: CR Belouizdad have five wins, ES Setif two, and three draws. The 1-1 and 2-1 scorelines have each occurred multiple times, and six of those matches finished with two or three total goals. Home advantage has been a slight factor, but not decisive.
CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
CR Belouizdad wins
2
Draws
2
ES Setif wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif
With no bookmaker odds available, the model cannot identify explicit value edges for this fixture. The probabilities suggest the draw and under 2.5 goals would be the main value angles if market prices are typical for a balanced Ligue 1 opener. If odds on a draw or a 1-1 correct score are generous, these would warrant consideration based on the underlying rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif
- ⚠️No current season data for home/away splits or full-season averages; all rates are based on last 5 matches only.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment cannot be performed.
- ⚠️No set-piece, corners, or detailed shot data for recent matches, limiting precision on secondary markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
CR Belouizdad 1–1 ES SetifThe model calls this a 1-1 draw, anchored by both teams' near-identical recent scoring (Belouizdad 1.6, Setif 2.0) and concession (1.2 each) rates and a history of close H2H contests. The most robust data point is the high BTTS rate for Belouizdad (4 of last 5), but the lack of full-season splits and corners data means the probability distribution could shift if either side shows a new tactical approach.
CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif: Common Questions
Who will win CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif?
The model gives CR Belouizdad a 34% chance to win, ES Setif a 30% chance, and the draw is most likely at 36%. Recent form and head-to-head suggest a tight contest with no clear favourite.
Will both teams score in CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif?
Both teams to score is rated at 54% probability, supported by Belouizdad's 4 BTTS results in their last 5 matches and both sides averaging over a goal per game recently.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif?
Under 2.5 goals is modelled at 58% probability, reflecting both teams' recent defensive records and a history of low-to-moderate scoring in their head-to-head meetings.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 28 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.