Criciuma vs São Bernardo Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Criciuma
Full Time
1 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
São Bernardo
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: Draw or São Bernardo
Match Result
6.5/10Criciuma Edge São Bernardo in Tight Serie B Contest
Criciuma secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over São Bernardo in a closely contested Serie B encounter. The decisive moment came in the 26th minute, with Criciuma capitalizing on an early opportunity to take the lead. Despite São Bernardo's efforts to claw their way back into the match, resolute defending and disciplined midfield play from the hosts kept the visitors at bay. The match was marked by its physicality, with a total of seven yellow cards shown—three to Criciuma and four to São Bernardo—reflecting the intensity of the battle. Both teams struggled to find attacking fluency, but Criciuma's early breakthrough proved enough as they managed the game effectively to claim all three points.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
26' — Goal
Criciuma score the only goal of the match to take an early lead.
Various' — Yellow Cards
A total of seven yellow cards are shown, highlighting the match's physical nature.
Criciuma
Criciuma delivered a disciplined and determined performance, making the most of their early advantage. After taking the lead in the 26th minute, the hosts focused on maintaining their defensive shape and managing the tempo of the game. While they picked up three yellow cards, Criciuma's defensive organization and ability to withstand São Bernardo's pressure were key to their victory. The home side's midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt São Bernardo's rhythm, and the backline remained compact throughout, ensuring the slender lead was preserved until the final whistle.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
São Bernardo
São Bernardo fought valiantly but ultimately fell short in their search for an equalizer. The visitors showed plenty of commitment, as evidenced by their four yellow cards, but struggled to break down Criciuma's disciplined defense. Despite pushing forward in the second half, São Bernardo lacked the cutting edge in the final third to turn their possession into clear chances. While their attacking efforts were stifled, São Bernardo's determination and work rate were evident, though frustration grew as the match wore on and the breakthrough never arrived.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both sides likely deploying compact formations, the match was characterized by tight midfield battles and a lack of clear-cut chances. Criciuma, after taking the lead, sat deeper and focused on defensive solidity, relying on their backline to absorb São Bernardo's pressure. São Bernardo, meanwhile, tried to inject energy through aggressive pressing and midfield transitions, but their final ball was lacking. The high number of yellow cards suggests both teams were committed in the tackle and willing to disrupt play. Substitutions and tactical tweaks were insufficient to change the flow, as Criciuma's disciplined approach and São Bernardo's lack of attacking invention kept the scoreline unchanged after the early goal.
Turning Point
The 26th-minute goal for Criciuma set the tone, allowing them to dictate the tempo and focus on protecting their lead.
Man of the Match
Criciuma Goalscorer
Delivered the match-winning goal and provided the decisive moment in a tight contest.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.85
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
26%
BTTS: Yes
34%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Criciuma vs São Bernardo Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Criciuma vs São Bernardo?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Criciuma vs São Bernardo(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Double Chance: Draw or São Bernardo
São Bernardo are unbeaten away (5W, 1D) and sit top of the table, while Criciuma have drawn 3 of 6 home games and have a high draw rate. The away side's form and defensive solidity suggest strong value on São Bernardo avoiding defeat.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have strong defensive records (Criciuma 0.85 conceded/game, São Bernardo 0.77 conceded/game). Criciuma's home games have only 23% over 2.5 goals, and São Bernardo's away games are also low-scoring. A tight, low-scoring match is likely.
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Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in their last 5, and both draw frequently. The 1-1 is the most probable single scoreline in this matchup.
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More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Criciuma vs São Bernardo Prediction
This is a clash between two of Serie B's most consistent sides: Criciuma, unbeaten at home but prone to draws, and São Bernardo, the league leaders with a formidable away record. Both teams are defensively solid and rarely concede multiple goals, suggesting a tactical, tightly contested game. São Bernardo's slight attacking edge is offset by Criciuma's home resilience, making a draw or narrow result highly likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Criciuma are unbeaten at home (3W, 3D), but have a high draw rate and only 8 goals scored in 6 home games.
Defence
- →São Bernardo are unbeaten away (5W, 1D), with just 5 goals conceded in 6 away matches.
- →Both teams average just 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either side; both likely to field strong lineups.
Match Context
- →Criciuma's season over 2.5 goals rate is just 23%, São Bernardo's is 46% but lower away.
🚩 Criciuma vs São Bernardo Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Criciuma and 3.7 for São Bernardo, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 50% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How Criciuma and São Bernardo Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Criciuma vs São Bernardo Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Criciumalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
São Bernardolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Criciuma come into this game unbeaten in their last five (DWWDD), but with four draws in that span, highlighting their solidity but lack of cutting edge. São Bernardo are also unbeaten in five (DWDWD), with two away wins and three draws, and have shown the ability to grind out results on the road. Both teams have been difficult to beat, with similar recent goal and defensive stats.
Criciuma vs São Bernardo — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Criciuma vs São Bernardo
There is no recent head-to-head data between Criciuma and São Bernardo, so the prediction is based entirely on current season form and statistical trends.
Criciuma vs São Bernardo Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
1
Criciuma wins
0
Draws
0
São Bernardo wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Criciuma vs São Bernardo
Due to the absence of bookmaker odds, no explicit value edges can be identified. However, model probabilities suggest the market may underestimate São Bernardo's unbeaten away record and the high likelihood of a draw. The strongest model lean is towards double chance X2 and under 2.5 goals, which would be value if priced at typical market levels.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Criciuma vs São Bernardo
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️No head-to-head data between these teams; model relies solely on form, stats, and league context.
- ⚠️Some away team match stats (shots, possession) are missing for the most recent game, slightly reducing confidence in averages.
- ⚠️Low scoring games can be prone to variance from set pieces or individual errors.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Criciuma vs São Bernardo: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 20 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.