CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat Predictions
Premier League · Russia
CSKA Moscow
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Akhmat
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4.1(+11% edge)
Recommended Bets: CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat: Match Preview
CSKA Moscow return to the VEB Arena looking to consolidate their top-five position after a mixed run of form, with two wins, two losses and a draw in their last five. Their home record remains a major strength: unbeaten in eight (5W 3D), they have conceded just five goals at home all season. Akhmat, by contrast, sit 12th and have struggled away from Grozny, picking up only three points from seven away games and scoring just four times on their travels.
Statistically, CSKA’s attack is among the league’s most consistent at home, averaging 1.63 goals and 5.2 shots on target per match over the last five, while Akhmat’s defence has been porous away, conceding 1.43 per game. The first half could be decisive: CSKA have scored six first-half goals in their last five, while Akhmat have managed just two. Both sides generate over 4.5 corners per game, but Akhmat’s higher foul rate (12.2 per match) suggests they may be forced into more defensive actions, potentially leading to set-piece opportunities for CSKA.
The model expects CSKA to control possession and territory, with the likeliest outcome a narrow home win (2-1). However, Akhmat’s ability to frustrate and their tendency to draw on the road (three away draws) mean the draw is a live possibility, especially if CSKA’s attack is blunted. The overall goal expectation is moderate, with a 54% probability for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score rated at 55%.
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat that most previews miss.
- 1CSKA Moscow have conceded only five goals in eight home matches, a defensive record bettered by only two teams in the league.
- 2Akhmat have scored just four away goals in seven matches, the joint-lowest away tally in the division.
- 3In the last ten H2H meetings, six have finished with under 2.5 goals, including three of the last four in Moscow.
Who do you think wins: CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 4.08
The draw probability is modelled at 27%, above the implied 24.4% from the odds, and both teams have drawn a combined 8 of their 28 league matches, with CSKA drawing 3 of 8 at home and Akhmat 3 of 7 away.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.22
While CSKA's over 2.5 rate is high (57%), Akhmat's is just 36%, and their away matches average 2.0 goals; the model sees a 46% chance for under 2.5, slightly above the market's implied probability.
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The Case For This CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat Prediction
This match sets up as a clash between CSKA Moscow’s strong home record and Akhmat’s difficulties on the road, with both teams trending toward mid-table but CSKA still in the hunt for European places. The statistical profile points to a moderate goal environment, with CSKA’s attack (1.64 goals/game, 5.2 shots on target in the last five) facing an Akhmat defence that concedes 1.36 per match and has kept just one away clean sheet all season. Akhmat’s attack has been blunt away from Grozny, scoring only four times in seven road games. The tactical matchup is defined by CSKA’s ability to control games at home (13 goals for, 5 against in eight home matches) against an Akhmat side that has yet to win on their travels (0W 3D 4L away). CSKA’s shot volume (15.8 per game in the last five) and consistent early scoring (six first-half goals in their last five) contrast with Akhmat’s tendency to fade after the interval, with just two second-half goals in their last five. Set pieces may be a factor: both sides average over 4.5 corners per match, but Akhmat’s higher foul count (12.2 per game) points to more defensive actions. The model projects CSKA to edge this, with a 56% win probability and a 2-1 scoreline as the modal outcome. However, the draw is more live than the market suggests, given both teams’ draw rates and Akhmat’s defensive set-up away from home. The most likely deviation comes if Akhmat frustrate CSKA for long spells, leveraging their compact midfield and forcing a low-scoring stalemate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →CSKA Moscow are unbeaten at home this season (5W 3D 0L), conceding just 0.63 goals per home game.
- →Akhmat have failed to win any of their seven away matches, scoring only four goals and conceding ten.
- →CSKA average 1.64 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per match, while Akhmat average 1.14 scored and 1.36 conceded.
🚩 CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for CSKA Moscow and 4.6 for Akhmat, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How CSKA Moscow and Akhmat Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
CSKA Moscowlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Akhmatlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
CSKA Moscow come into this match with a mixed recent record (2W 2L 1D), but their home form remains unblemished this season. Akhmat halted a four-game losing streak with a narrow win last time out, but have struggled for consistency, especially away from home where they remain winless.
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
What History Says: CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat
CSKA Moscow have dominated recent head-to-heads, winning six of the last ten, including three of the last four at home. Most Moscow meetings have been low scoring, with three of the last four finishing under 2.5 goals.
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
CSKA Moscow wins
2
Draws
2
Akhmat wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat
The draw offers the clearest value with model probability (27%) above the market's implied 24.4%, reflecting both teams’ high draw rates. The under 2.5 goals market is also marginally mispriced, with the model’s 46% probability slightly above the implied 45% from current odds.
Odds from Marathonbet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat
- ⚠️CSKA’s last five matches show defensive volatility, with 1.6 goals conceded per game.
- ⚠️Akhmat’s attack is inconsistent, with two matches in the last five failing to score.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but potential squad rotation after the international break is an unknown.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
CSKA Moscow 2–1 AkhmatCSKA Moscow are favoured to win 2-1, driven primarily by their unbeaten home record (5W 3D) and Akhmat’s struggles away (0W 3D 4L, 4 goals scored). The strongest data point is CSKA’s defensive solidity at home, conceding just 0.63 goals per match. The main risk is a low-tempo draw, as both sides have drawn three matches each in their respective home/away splits, and CSKA’s recent defensive lapses could offer Akhmat a foothold.
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat: Common Questions
Who will win CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
The model gives CSKA Moscow a 56% chance to win, with Akhmat at 17% and a draw at 27%. CSKA’s unbeaten home record and Akhmat’s winless away form are key factors.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
There is a 55% probability for both teams to score, as CSKA have conceded in three of their last five and Akhmat have found the net in three of their last five as well.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in this match?
Over 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 54%, but the under is live given Akhmat’s low away scoring rate and the H2H trend toward lower scores in Moscow.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.