Derby vs Swansea Predictions
Championship · England
Derby
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Swansea
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 4.8(+7% edge)
Match Result
7.4/10Clinical Derby Stun Swansea with Second-Half Surge at Pride Park
Derby County delivered a disciplined and incisive performance to claim a 2-0 victory over Swansea City at Pride Park. Despite conceding a massive 71% of possession to the visitors, Derby struck twice in the second half, with goals in the 47th and 67th minutes, to seal the points in front of their home fans. Swansea dominated the ball and registered 15 shots, but struggled to convert their territorial advantage into genuine threats, managing only two shots on target. The match was a tale of contrasting approaches: Swansea’s patient buildup was consistently repelled by a resolute Derby backline, while the hosts capitalized on their chances with clinical efficiency. Tactical tweaks and timely substitutions helped Derby maintain their shape and composure, frustrating Swansea and ensuring a clean sheet in a match where defensive organization and counter-attacking prowess proved decisive.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
47' — Goal
Patrick Agyemang finishes a swift Derby counter to break the deadlock early in the second half.
67' — Goal
Derby double their lead, with Sammie Szmodics providing a key assist for the second goal.
74' — Yellow Card
Ben Brereton Díaz receives a booking as Derby dig in defensively.
78' — Yellow Card
Swansea’s Josh Tymon is booked as frustrations mount for the visitors.
Derby
Derby executed a textbook counter-attacking game plan, soaking up pressure and striking decisively when opportunities arose. Despite only enjoying 29% possession, they were far more efficient in the final third, firing 6 shots on target from 11 attempts. The defense held firm under sustained Swansea pressure, with the midfield providing diligent cover and launching quick transitions. The home side’s discipline was evident in their compact 4-2-3-1 shape, and their ability to convert key chances after the break proved the difference. A couple of bookings reflected their combative edge, but overall, Derby’s organization and sharpness in front of goal were exemplary.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Swansea
Swansea controlled the tempo for large stretches, amassing 71% possession and dictating play with their 4-1-4-1 formation. However, their dominance rarely translated into genuine scoring opportunities, as they managed just two shots on target from 15 attempts. The visitors’ midfield circulated the ball well, but found it difficult to break down Derby’s compact lines. Despite their territorial advantage, Swansea lacked penetration and were vulnerable on the break. Their inability to capitalize on possession and set pieces ultimately left them frustrated, and defensive lapses at key moments proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Derby’s 4-2-3-1 shape was compact and disciplined, with the double pivot shielding the back four and the attacking trio springing forward on the break. Their willingness to concede possession in favor of defensive solidity paid dividends, as they limited Swansea to speculative efforts and few clear sights of goal. The home side’s use of width on the counter and their threat from set pieces kept Swansea’s defense on edge. Swansea’s 4-1-4-1 aimed to control the midfield and stretch Derby’s lines, but their patient buildup often fizzled out against Derby’s deep block. Attempts to inject more attacking impetus through substitutions and tactical tweaks failed to break down the hosts, with Swansea’s lack of a focal point in the box becoming increasingly apparent as the match wore on.
Turning Point
Agyemang’s goal just after halftime shifted momentum decisively in Derby’s favor, forcing Swansea to chase the game and opening up space for the hosts to exploit on the counter.
Man of the Match
Patrick Agyemang
His clinical finish early in the second half set Derby on course for victory and his tireless running troubled Swansea’s backline throughout.
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Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
26%
BTTS: Yes
34%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Derby vs Swansea Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Derby vs Swansea?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Derby vs Swansea(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 4.8
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (28%) is slightly higher than the implied probability from odds (20.8%), offering a small value edge in a match where both teams have shown recent attacking intent and defensive lapses.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.15
Both teams have similar recent form and defensive stats, and H2H history shows a high draw rate. The model makes draw the most likely outcome.
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More Championship Predictions
The Case For This Derby vs Swansea Prediction
Derby and Swansea meet at Pride Park in a mid-table clash with both teams separated by just three points. Derby's home form has been inconsistent (4W, 6D, 6L), while Swansea have struggled away (4W, 2D, 9L), but both sides are coming off positive recent results and have similar goal records. Injuries and suspensions affect both squads, especially in midfield and defense for Derby. Expect a tight, tactical battle likely to be decided by small margins, with a draw the most probable outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →H2H last 10: 3 draws, 4 away wins, 3 home wins; low scoring is common.
Defence
- →Both teams average under 1.5 goals conceded per game and have kept 2 clean sheets each in their last 5.
- →Both sides' last 5 matches average under 2 goals conceded per game combined.
- →Season over 2.5 goal % is around 50% for both, but recent defensive improvement noted.
Match Context
- →Derby have failed to score in none of their last 5, Swansea likewise.
- →Derby missing key midfielder (Travis, red card) and defender (Langas, hamstring).
🚩 Derby vs Swansea Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.9 corners for Derby and 4.4 for Swansea, for an expected total of 9.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 58% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How Derby and Swansea Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Derby vs Swansea Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Derbylast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Swansealast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Derby vs Swansea — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Derby vs Swansea
Derby vs Swansea Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Derby wins
2
Draws
4
Swansea wins
Things to Watch: Derby vs Swansea
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession, corners) missing for several recent away games for both teams.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; injuries could impact starting XIs more than expected.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds suggest lower scoring than model, increasing risk for goal markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Derby vs Swansea: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 February 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.