Derby vs Swansea Predictions
Championship · England
Derby
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Swansea
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7.2/10Swansea Outclass Derby with Dominant Display at Pride Park
Swansea City delivered a commanding performance at Pride Park, comfortably dispatching Derby County 3-0 in a one-sided Championship encounter. The visitors asserted their authority from the outset, controlling possession and peppering the Derby goal with a barrage of shots, while the hosts struggled to muster any attacking threat throughout the ninety minutes. Despite Derby's home advantage, they failed to register a single shot on target from their eight attempts, while Swansea's relentless attacking play saw them rack up 23 shots, 12 of which tested the Derby goalkeeper. The gulf in quality was evident, with Swansea's efficiency in both attack and defence ensuring a deserved three points and a statement victory on the road.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
N/A' — Goal
Swansea scored three unanswered goals, capitalising on their attacking dominance.
N/A' — Derby yellow cards
Derby collected three yellow cards as frustration grew.
Derby
Derby County endured a torrid afternoon, unable to match Swansea's intensity or creativity. The Rams were second best in possession and failed to create any meaningful chances, finishing the match without a single shot on target. Their defensive frailties were exposed repeatedly, and their discipline wavered with 16 fouls and three yellow cards. The home crowd saw little to cheer about as Derby struggled to build any momentum, their midfield overrun and their attack blunted by Swansea's organised backline.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Swansea
Swansea City put in a near-flawless away performance, controlling the tempo with 53% possession and launching wave after wave of attacks. Their 23 shots, including 12 on target, were a testament to their attacking intent and fluidity. Defensively, they were rarely troubled, keeping Derby at bay and maintaining discipline with only seven fouls and two yellow cards. Swansea's cohesive play and clinical finishing ensured a comprehensive victory, underlining their credentials as promotion contenders.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Swansea set up to control the midfield and press high, using their superior technical ability to dictate play and create numerous chances. Their shape allowed them to stretch Derby's defence, frequently overloading the flanks and finding space in the final third. The visitors' defensive organisation ensured Derby's attacks fizzled out before becoming dangerous, and their transition play was swift and effective. Derby, meanwhile, appeared to lack a clear attacking plan, struggling to progress the ball through midfield and resorting to physical challenges to break up Swansea's rhythm. Their inability to register a shot on target reflected a lack of cohesion and creativity in the final third.
Turning Point
Swansea's opening goal—coming amid a dominant spell—set the tone and forced Derby onto the back foot for the remainder of the match.
Man of the Match
Swansea Forward(s)
Instrumental in Swansea's attacking dominance, leading the line and contributing to all three goals.
Derby vs Swansea: Match Preview
Derby return to Pride Park after a narrow 2-1 defeat at Charlton in their league opener, still looking for their first points of the campaign. Their recent form string of 'LLDLW' reflects a side struggling to find consistency, with no clean sheets in their last five and a current run of two straight losses. Swansea, meanwhile, arrive eighth in the table after a 2-1 win at Stoke and a mixed bag of results in pre-season, showing a 'WLWLW' form string that hints at volatility but also attacking intent.
Statistically, both teams have produced similar output in the early going: Derby average 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per last five, Swansea 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Neither side has established a defensive stronghold—Derby’s clean sheet rate is 0% this season, while Swansea’s is also 0% in competitive matches. The shot and xG volumes are modest (Derby 4.6 shots per game, Swansea 4.2), and both sides have seen just one of their last five matches end with more than two goals, suggesting a low-to-mid goal environment. Set-piece threat is limited, with corners per game below 2.5 for both.
Given the balanced head-to-head record (4 wins each, 2 draws in the last 10), the model expects a closely fought contest, with neither attack likely to overwhelm the opposing defence. The distribution of likely scorelines is flat, but 1-1 emerges as the statistical mode, reflecting both sides’ tendency to score but rarely in volume. Expect a cagey first half, with the majority of goals likely to arrive after the break.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Derby vs Swansea Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Derby vs Swansea that most previews miss.
- 1Four of the last ten Derby vs Swansea meetings have finished 2-1 to either side.
- 2Derby have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding 1.4 goals per game in that span.
- 3Swansea’s last five away matches (competitive and friendly) have averaged just 1.8 total goals per game.
Who do you think wins: Derby vs Swansea?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Derby vs Swansea(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
The 1-1 scoreline is supported by both teams’ moderate attacking output (Derby 1.2, Swansea 1.0 goals per last 5), balanced xG rates, and a high draw probability (36%) with neither side showing clear dominance in form or head-to-head.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have averaged just above 1 goal per game in their last 5, and only one of Swansea’s last five saw both teams score, suggesting a slightly higher likelihood of a low-scoring match than the market may imply.
Read more ↓
More Championship Predictions
The Case For This Derby vs Swansea Prediction
This fixture sets up as a statistical dead heat, with both Derby and Swansea showing similar goal production and concession rates in the early season. Neither side has established a clear home or away edge, and the model expects a tightly contested match with limited clear-cut chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average just over 1 goal scored per game in their last 5 matches.
Defence
- →Swansea have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5, but Derby have failed to score only once in that span.
Match Context
- →Head-to-head is perfectly balanced over the last 10, with 4 wins each and 2 draws.
🚩 Derby vs Swansea Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Derby and 5.2 for Swansea, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Derby and Swansea Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Derby vs Swansea Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Derbylast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Swansealast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Derby enter this fixture on a two-match losing streak, with their last five showing just one win and no clean sheets. Swansea’s form is more erratic but positive overall, alternating wins and losses in their last five, including a 2-1 away win at Stoke in their league opener.
Derby vs Swansea — Last 1 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: Derby vs Swansea
The last ten meetings between Derby and Swansea have been evenly split, with each side winning four and two draws. Scorelines have often been tight, with four matches ending 2-1 and only two goalless draws in that span.
Derby vs Swansea Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Derby wins
2
Draws
4
Swansea wins
Things to Watch: Derby vs Swansea
- ⚠️Only one league match played for each side in the current season, so underlying rates are based on small samples.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be formally calculated.
- ⚠️No injury or suspension data reported, but lineups are not yet confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Derby 1–1 SwanseaA 1-1 draw is the likeliest outcome, underpinned by both teams’ almost identical scoring and conceding rates and the absence of a home or away edge in the data. The single strongest data point is the flat head-to-head record, which mirrors the current statistical balance. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if one side capitalises on a defensive lapse early, opening up a match that otherwise profiles as low-event.
Derby vs Swansea: Common Questions
Who will win Derby vs Swansea?
The model gives Derby a 32% chance, Swansea a 32% chance, and a draw 36%. Both teams have similar scoring rates and the head-to-head is perfectly balanced, so a draw is marginally the most likely outcome.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Swansea?
There is a 54% probability of both teams scoring, based on each side averaging around a goal per game and Derby’s last five featuring BTTS in four of five matches.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Derby vs Swansea?
The probability for under 2.5 goals is 52%, with both teams’ recent matches tending towards low-to-mid goal totals and neither attack consistently producing multiple goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Derby vs Swansea: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.