Dundee Utd vs Dundee Predictions
Premiership · Scotland
Dundee Utd
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Dundee
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.6(+30% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Dundee Stun United in Tannadice Derby with Clinical 2-0 Victory
Dundee claimed local bragging rights with a composed 2-0 victory over Dundee United at Tannadice Park, capitalizing on their chances despite conceding the lion’s share of possession. The visitors struck at pivotal moments—just before half time and early in the second period—while United’s dominance on the ball and in shot count failed to yield a breakthrough. United, lining up in a 4-3-3, controlled 68% of possession and unleashed 23 shots, but only five tested Owen Goodman, who stood firm between the posts for Dundee. The away side, set up in a 4-2-3-1, were far more efficient, converting two of their four shots on target and weathering late pressure to seal a memorable derby win.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
43' — Goal
Dundee break the deadlock with a well-worked move, punishing United just before the interval.
57' — Goal
Dundee double their lead with a swift counterattack, capitalizing on United’s high line.
65' — Yellow Card
Tensions flare as United pick up their third booking, reflecting growing frustration.
78' — Yellow Card
Dundee’s disciplined rearguard action sees them pick up another card while defending their lead.
Dundee Utd
Dundee United dominated the ball and created more than enough opportunities, but a lack of cutting edge in the final third saw them blanked at home. Their 23 shots and 68% possession reflected territorial superiority, but only five efforts forced a save, and frustration grew as the match wore on. Four yellow cards highlighted their struggle to cope with Dundee’s counterattacking threat and the mounting pressure to find a way back into the game.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Dundee
Dundee executed a near-perfect away performance, absorbing pressure and striking decisively at key moments. Despite seeing just 32% of the ball and conceding 23 shots, their defensive organization and counterattacking intent paid dividends. Four shots on target produced two goals, and their ability to frustrate United while remaining dangerous on the break was the foundation of their derby triumph.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
United’s 4-3-3 formation allowed them to dominate the ball, especially in midfield, but their wide forwards struggled to penetrate Dundee’s compact defensive lines. The home side’s high pressing left them exposed to quick transitions, which Dundee exploited ruthlessly. Dundee’s 4-2-3-1 shape morphed into a deep block out of possession, with the double pivot shielding the back four and the attacking trio ready to spring forward on the break. Set pieces offered United some hope, but Dundee’s aerial discipline and organization held firm throughout.
Turning Point
Dundee’s opening goal in the 43rd minute, against the run of play, shifted the momentum and forced United to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Owen Goodman
Made crucial saves and marshaled his defence superbly to keep United at bay.
Dundee Utd vs Dundee: Match Preview
Dundee Utd enter this derby in need of a response after a heavy 0-4 defeat away to Hearts, having started the league campaign with a 1-1 draw at home to Rangers. Their attack has yet to click in the Premiership, with just one goal scored and a -4 goal difference after two rounds, leaving them 11th in the early standings. Dundee, meanwhile, sit 5th after a 2-0 win over Aberdeen and a narrow 0-1 defeat at Celtic, showing a more robust defensive profile and a slightly better start in terms of results and underlying numbers.
The statistical matchup points to a low-scoring affair. Dundee Utd average only 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per league game, while Dundee have conceded just once and kept a clean sheet in 50% of their league matches. Both sides' last five averages are skewed by cup outings, but even so, Dundee's 3.6 shots on target per game and Utd's 0.6 suggest limited attacking threat. First-half goals have been rare for both, with just four combined in the last ten H2H meetings, and the last three derbies at Tannadice have all seen at least one side fail to score.
Given these rates and the historical pattern of tight margins, the model expects a cagey contest, with neither side likely to dominate for extended periods. The probability distribution favours a draw (36%), with under 2.5 goals (59%) and a slight lean towards both teams not scoring (52%). Set-piece and discipline data offer little separation, so the likeliest scenario is a 1-1 or 1-0 either way, with the draw offering the most value.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Dundee Utd vs Dundee Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Dundee Utd vs Dundee that most previews miss.
- 1Dundee have conceded just one goal in their last four competitive matches, keeping three clean sheets.
- 2Four of the last ten Dundee derbies have ended in draws, including two 2-2 scorelines and a 0-0.
- 3Dundee Utd's shots on target average in their last five is just 0.6 per game, indicating a blunt attack.
Who do you think wins: Dundee Utd vs Dundee?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Dundee Utd vs Dundee(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.54
With a model probability of 36% for the draw and odds implying just 28%, the draw price offers a strong edge in a fixture where both sides have low-scoring tendencies and the last 10 H2H meetings have produced four draws.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2
Both teams have averaged under 1.5 goals scored per game in the league so far, and Dundee's matches have yet to go over 2.5; the model gives a 59% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No@ 2.1
Dundee have kept three clean sheets in their last five in all competitions, and both teams to score has landed in just two of Dundee Utd's last five, supporting value on 'no' at the current price.
Read more ↓
More Premiership Predictions
The Case For This Dundee Utd vs Dundee Prediction
Statistically, this Dundee derby shapes as a low-scoring, tightly-matched contest. Both sides have struggled to find the net consistently in their opening league fixtures, and the historical head-to-head record is littered with draws and narrow margins. The model expects a tactical battle with neither side able to impose sustained attacking pressure, making a 1-1 draw the likeliest outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Four of the last ten head-to-head meetings have ended level, including a 2-2 draw in March.
Defence
- →Dundee Utd have scored just once in their first two league matches, conceding five.
- →Dundee have recorded three clean sheets in their last five across all competitions.
🚩 Dundee Utd vs Dundee Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Dundee Utd and 4.8 for Dundee, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How Dundee Utd and Dundee Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Dundee Utd vs Dundee Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Dundee Utdlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dundeelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Dundee Utd have taken just one point from their opening two Premiership fixtures, shipping five goals and scoring only once, with their last outing a heavy 0-4 defeat at Hearts. Dundee, by contrast, have three points from two games, including a clean-sheet win over Aberdeen and a narrow loss at Celtic. Both sides' cup form is stronger, but league data points to early attacking struggles.
Dundee Utd vs Dundee — Last 3 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Dundee Utd vs Dundee
The last ten Dundee derbies have been evenly split, with three wins each and four draws. Notably, draws have come in high-scoring (2-2) and low-scoring (0-0) forms, and the most recent Tannadice meeting ended 3-0 to Dundee Utd. The fixture often produces close contests, with no side dominant over the last two years.
Dundee Utd vs Dundee Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Dundee Utd wins
3
Draws
4
Dundee wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Dundee Utd vs Dundee
The draw at 3.6 stands out as the clearest value, with a 36% model probability versus 28% implied by the odds. Under 2.5 goals (model: 59%, odds: 2.0) also offers a notable edge, reflecting both teams' low scoring rates and recent defensive records. Both teams to score 'no' is another area of mild value, given Dundee's recent clean sheets.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Dundee Utd vs Dundee
- ⚠️Early-season data increases variance; only two league matches per side so far.
- ⚠️Some last five averages are inflated by cup matches against lower-tier opposition.
- ⚠️Lineups are not confirmed at time of analysis, so late team news could shift probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Dundee Utd 1–1 DundeeA 1-1 draw is the model's base case, driven by both sides' low early-season scoring rates and the head-to-head trend of stalemates. The single strongest data point is Dundee Utd's lack of attacking output (0.5 goals per league game), but the biggest risk is that Dundee's recent defensive solidity is overstated due to weaker cup opposition.
Dundee Utd vs Dundee: Common Questions
Who will win Dundee Utd vs Dundee?
The model gives Dundee Utd a 34% chance of victory, Dundee a 30% chance, and the draw a 36% probability. With both teams struggling for goals and four draws in the last ten meetings, the draw is the most likely result.
Will both teams score in the Dundee derby?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with 'no' slightly favoured at 52%. Dundee have kept three clean sheets in their last five, and Dundee Utd have failed to score in one of their last five, pointing to a marginal edge for 'no'.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Dundee Utd vs Dundee?
Under 2.5 goals is rated a 59% chance by the model, compared to odds implying just 50%. Both teams have averaged under 1.5 goals scored per league game, and Dundee's two league matches have both gone under.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Dundee Utd vs Dundee: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.