Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham Predictions
National League - South · England
Ebbsfleet United
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Horsham
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Horsham Win
Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham: Match Preview
Ebbsfleet United enter their first league fixture of the campaign off a mixed pre-season, with a last five record of two wins, two losses, and a draw—all in friendlies. Their attack produced two goals per game in these matches, but the defensive side conceded 1.6 per match. Horsham, meanwhile, have started the National League South strongly, sitting second in the table with eight points from four matches, and have yet to taste defeat (W2 D2). Their most recent result was a 2-1 away win, underlining their early momentum.
The tactical matchup is shaped by Horsham's compact defence, which has allowed just two goals in four league matches (0.5 per game) and produced two clean sheets. Offensively, Horsham average 1.25 goals per game, with a slight bias towards second-half scoring (3 of 5 goals after the break). Ebbsfleet's pre-season numbers suggest attacking intent but little evidence of defensive control, and their last five have all seen both teams score. Notably, Horsham's matches have tended to be low-scoring, with only one of four exceeding 2.5 goals.
Given the defensive baseline Horsham have set and Ebbsfleet's lack of competitive data, the model expects a cautious first half with Horsham gradually asserting themselves. Horsham's superior league form, away resilience (one win, one draw on the road), and positive H2H record tilt the probabilities in their favour. The most likely scenario is a narrow away win, with a 2-1 scoreline reflecting both Horsham's efficiency and Ebbsfleet's untested status.
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Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
42%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham that most previews miss.
- 1Horsham have conceded just two goals in four league matches (0.5 per game), the joint-best defensive rate among the top six.
- 2Only one of Horsham's four league matches has produced over 2.5 goals, despite both teams scoring in both H2H meetings last season.
- 3Ebbsfleet's last five matches—all friendlies—have seen both teams score every time, but they have not kept a clean sheet in that span.
Who do you think wins: Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Horsham Win
Horsham are unbeaten in four league matches (W2 D2), averaging 1.25 goals scored and just 0.5 conceded per game, while Ebbsfleet have yet to play a league match and lost their last home H2H.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Only one of Horsham's four league matches has gone over 2.5 goals (25%), and their defensive record (2 goals conceded in 4) suggests a low-scoring trend.
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More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham Prediction
The statistical profile points to a low-scoring contest where Horsham's defensive solidity and early-season momentum give them the edge over an Ebbsfleet side yet to play a league fixture. Horsham's away record and recent H2H success further tip the balance in their favour.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Horsham have conceded just 0.5 goals per game across four league matches.
Match Context
- →Ebbsfleet have not played a league match and lost their last home H2H to Horsham.
- →Only 25% of Horsham's league matches have gone over 2.5 goals.
How Ebbsfleet United and Horsham Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Ebbsfleet Unitedlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Horshamlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ebbsfleet United's recent form is difficult to assess, as all last five matches were friendlies, yielding two wins, two losses, and a draw, with goals at both ends in every game. Horsham, by contrast, are unbeaten in four league fixtures, have won their last two, and boast the second-best defensive record in the division.
Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham
Horsham have the upper hand in the recent head-to-head, winning 2-1 away last season and drawing 1-1 at home. Both meetings saw both teams score, but Ebbsfleet have yet to beat Horsham in this fixture.
Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
0
Ebbsfleet United wins
1
Draws
1
Horsham wins
Things to Watch: Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham
- ⚠️Ebbsfleet's lack of league data introduces high uncertainty into their true level.
- ⚠️Recent Ebbsfleet results are from friendlies, so competitive intensity and lineups may differ.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Ebbsfleet United 1–2 HorshamThe model forecasts a 2-1 away win for Horsham, with their defensive record—just 0.5 goals conceded per league game—standing out as the strongest indicator. The main risk is Ebbsfleet's unknown competitive level, as their pre-season attacking output could translate differently in league play.
Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham: Common Questions
Who will win Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham?
Horsham are favoured with a 45% probability of victory, compared to 23% for Ebbsfleet United and 32% for the draw. Horsham's unbeaten league start and defensive record underpin their edge.
Will both teams score in Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham?
The probability for both teams to score is estimated at 48%, with Ebbsfleet's friendlies showing a 100% BTTS rate but Horsham's league matches producing BTTS in just two of four.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham?
Under 2.5 goals is rated at 57% probability, driven by Horsham's low-scoring matches (three of four under 2.5) and their strong defensive metrics so far.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Ebbsfleet United vs Horsham: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.