Ecuador vs Guatemala Prediction
Ecuador Heavy Favourites Over Guatemala in World Cup 2026 Warm-Up
International Friendly · World
Ecuador
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Guatemala
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.05
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 1-0 · 2-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Ecuador vs Guatemala Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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The Case For This Ecuador vs Guatemala Prediction
Ecuador enter this friendly against Guatemala as clear favourites, backed by a commanding Elo rating advantage and a well-drilled attack. The model projects a 2-0 win for Ecuador, with the South Americans boasting a 67.6% chance of victory and a strong defensive record to match their attacking firepower. Guatemala, meanwhile, face an uphill battle, having struggled both in recent form and historically against Ecuador. The analytics highlight Ecuador’s superior squad quality, with top finishers like L. Campana and J. Yeboah expected to make the difference. Guatemala’s lack of data and recent defensive frailty suggest they’ll be hard-pressed to break down Ecuador’s back line or keep the scoreline close.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Ecuador's attack boosted by strong finishing (1.2x) and chance quality
Defence
- →Guatemala's defense leaks (recent leak factor 1.18) and no clean sheets in last 5
Match Context
- →Ecuador hold a massive Elo edge (+418 points; 1933 vs 1515)
- →Model's final expected goals: Ecuador 2.07, Guatemala 0.77
- →Head-to-head: Ecuador won both previous meetings 2-0
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
2.14 · 0.46
From xG
1.30 · 1.63
Blended
2.07 · 0.77
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Guatemala's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Ecuador goals, columns = Guatemala goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.5%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.6%
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with a huge Elo baseline gap: Ecuador’s 1933 rating (9th globally) dwarfs Guatemala’s 1515 (80th), setting a strong expectation for Ecuador to control the match. This Elo difference translates into an initial expected score of 0.917 for Ecuador and just 0.083 for Guatemala. Next, the attack and defense modules adjust for each team’s scoring and suppression abilities. Ecuador’s attack is rated highly, with a finishing multiplier of 1.2 and solid chance creation, while their defense suppresses opponents (factor 0.8). Guatemala’s lack of recent data and a neutral attack/defense profile (all factors at 1) reflect uncertainty and a lack of standout performers. Recent momentum is factored in, slightly reducing both teams’ expected attacking output (attack momentum 0.973 for both), but not enough to shift the overall outlook. Finally, these adjusted expected goals (2.07 for Ecuador, 0.77 for Guatemala) are run through a Poisson model to generate precise scoreline probabilities. The most likely result is a 2-0 Ecuador win (12.5%), with a 67.6% probability for an Ecuador victory overall.
More Friendlies Predictions
Ecuador vs Guatemala Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Ecuadorlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Guatemalalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ecuador’s recent form is steady, with a five-match unbeaten run (WDDWD) and an average of 1.2 goals scored per game. Their defense has been solid, conceding just 0.6 goals per match over the last five. Guatemala, in contrast, are on a three-match losing streak, conceding an average of 3 goals per game and failing to keep a single clean sheet in their last five outings. International form data for Guatemala is sparse, and their squad lacks recent top-level experience.
Ecuador vs Guatemala — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +Dominant in possession — 62% avg
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 3.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
🚩 Ecuador vs Guatemala Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Ecuador and 6.8 for Guatemala, for an expected total of 11.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (74%). Over 8.5: 83% · Over 10.5: 64%.
What History Says: Ecuador vs Guatemala
These teams have met twice in recent years, both times in friendlies, with Ecuador winning 2-0 on each occasion. The head-to-head history is limited but clearly favours Ecuador, who have never conceded to Guatemala in these encounters.
Ecuador vs Guatemala Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
2
Ecuador wins
0
Draws
0
Guatemala wins
Things to Watch: Ecuador vs Guatemala
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are not currently available, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can produce unpredictable lineups and motivation levels.
- ⚠️Guatemala’s sparse data increases uncertainty in their rating and projections.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Ecuador vs Guatemala: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.