Egypt vs Iran Prediction
Egypt vs Iran: Model Favors Iran in Tight, Low-Scoring World Cup Clash
FIFA World Cup 2026 · World
Egypt
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 0 - 1
Iran
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
6.7/10Egypt and Iran Stalemate in Seattle as Early Goals Settle World Cup Clash
Egypt and Iran played out a tense 1-1 draw at Lumen Field, with both sides scoring inside the opening quarter of an hour before defensive discipline and missed chances defined the remainder. Egypt struck first through a rapid attack in the 5th minute, but Iran responded swiftly with a well-worked equalizer in the 14th. Despite Egypt dominating possession with 61% and registering 15 shots, their lack of cutting edge in front of goal proved costly. Iran, deploying a resolute 5-4-1 formation, absorbed sustained pressure and looked dangerous on the counter, managing four shots on target from 12 attempts. The match grew increasingly physical, with seven yellow cards shown as both teams battled for control but ultimately failed to find a decisive breakthrough. The result leaves both sides with work to do in their World Cup campaigns.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
Key Moments
5' — Goal
Mostafa Ziko finishes off a swift Egyptian move to give Egypt an early lead.
14' — Goal
Mehdi Taremi equalizes for Iran with a well-taken finish after a counter-attack.
37' — Yellow Card
Saman Ghoddos (Iran) booked for a late challenge in midfield.
54' — Yellow Card
Emam Ashour (Egypt) shown yellow for dissent after a foul.
68' — Yellow Card
Hossein Kanaani (Iran) cautioned for time-wasting.
82' — Yellow Card
Mahmoud Saber (Egypt) booked for a tactical foul as Iran threatened to break.
Egypt
Egypt started brightly, capitalizing on early momentum to take the lead in the 5th minute. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dictate play, enjoying 61% possession and creating more chances than their opponents. However, despite eight corners and a clear territorial advantage, Egypt struggled to convert pressure into goals, with only three of their 15 shots hitting the target. The midfield, anchored by Mohanad Lasheen and Mahmoud Saber, kept the tempo high, but the Iranian defense proved difficult to break down after the equalizer. The team also picked up three yellow cards as frustration mounted late on.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Iran
Iran responded well to going behind early, showing resilience to equalize within nine minutes. Their 5-4-1 system prioritized defensive solidity, and they executed it with discipline, limiting Egypt to just three shots on target despite sustained pressure. Iran's midfield, led by Saman Ghoddos and Saeid Ezatolahi, worked tirelessly to disrupt Egyptian build-up play, while Mehdi Taremi provided a focal point on the counter. Iran's physical approach resulted in four yellow cards, but their defensive organization and ability to threaten on the break kept the contest finely balanced.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Egypt set up in a 4-2-3-1, seeking to control the midfield and utilize the creative talents of Salah and Trézéguet behind Ziko. Their full-backs pushed high, stretching Iran's five-man defense, but the final ball often lacked precision. Iran's 5-4-1 formation was designed to frustrate, with two compact banks of players denying space between the lines and relying on Taremi's movement to exploit any gaps on the counter. As the match wore on, Iran dropped deeper, inviting pressure but maintaining discipline, while Egypt introduced more attacking impetus through substitutions, though without altering their shape significantly. Set pieces offered Egypt some hope, but Iran's aerial strength held firm.
Turning Point
Mehdi Taremi's 14th-minute equalizer shifted the momentum, allowing Iran to settle into their defensive shape and frustrate Egypt for the remainder.
Man of the Match
Mehdi Taremi
Scored the crucial equalizer and led Iran's line with intelligence and work rate, providing an outlet under pressure.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Egypt vs Iran Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Egypt vs Iran?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Egypt vs Iran Prediction
As Egypt and Iran face off at Seattle’s Lumen Field in their final Group Stage match, the model gives Iran a narrow edge, projecting a cagey contest with few goals. Iran’s Elo rating advantage (+71 points) and slightly stronger attacking metrics tip the balance, but both sides’ defensive solidity and recent form suggest a tight affair. The most likely scoreline is a 1-0 win for Iran, with a draw or goalless stalemate also in play. Both teams bring robust defenses, with Egypt’s defensive suppression factor at 1.25 and Iran’s at 1.10, keeping expected goals low on both sides. Momentum from recent results nudges both teams’ attacking outputs upward, but not enough to push this fixture into high-scoring territory. The model’s probabilities point to Iran as favorites (41.4% win chance), but the draw (29.1%) is nearly as likely, and Egypt are not far behind.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Blended expected goals after momentum: Egypt 0.97, Iran 1.21.
Attack
xG factor — Egypt 0.76× · Iran 0.81×
- →Model predicts a low-scoring match: 56.6% chance for BTTS 'No', 63% for under 2.5 goals.
Defence
Suppression — Egypt 1.25× · Iran 1.10×
- →Both teams’ defenses are strong: Egypt’s suppression factor 1.25, Iran’s 1.10.
- →Recent form boosts both attacks (Egypt x1.08, Iran x1.18), but defenses remain tight.
Match Context
- →Iran holds a +71 Elo rating edge (1760 vs 1689), ranking 31st to Egypt’s 51st.
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
xG Attack Strength
Top-11 expected-goals output, adjusted for finishing efficiency and chance quality. 1.00× is the tournament median.
Egypt
0.76×Top-11 xG
56
Finishing
1.20×
Chance qual.
0.88×
- O. Faisal F10.5 xG
- M. Salah M8.2 xG
- S. Mohsen F6.2 xG
- Zizo M6.2 xG
- H. Abdelmaguid D5.1 xG
Iran
0.81×Top-11 xG
69
Finishing
1.20×
Chance qual.
0.88×
- M. Taremi F34.5 xG
- A. Jahanbakhsh F8.7 xG
- A. Sayyad M7.2 xG
- D. Eckert Ayensa F5.3 xG
- A. Gholizadeh M5.1 xG
Defensive Suppression
Defender & midfield ball-winning (tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks). Higher = more suppression of the opponent's attack.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.16 · 1.44
From xG
0.90 · 0.84
Blended
0.97 · 1.21
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Egypt attacking form lifts their goals ×1.08; Iran attacking form lifts their goals ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Egypt goals, columns = Iran goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.7%
1-1
13.3%
0-0
11.4%
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with Elo ratings, where Iran’s 1760 outpaces Egypt’s 1689, giving Iran a baseline expected score of 0.601 to Egypt’s 0.399. Next, it factors in each team’s attacking and defensive strengths: Iran’s attack factor (0.81) and finishing quality (1.2) slightly edge Egypt’s (0.76, 1.2), while both defenses are above average, especially Egypt’s (suppression 1.25). Recent form momentum is then applied: Egypt’s attack multiplier is 1.08 and Iran’s is 1.18, reflecting both teams’ solid recent results, though Iran’s is hotter. These adjustments yield final expected goals (λ) of 0.97 for Egypt and 1.21 for Iran. The model then runs these through a Poisson distribution, generating exact scoreline probabilities—making 0-1 (Iran win), 1-1, and 0-0 the three most likely outcomes.
More World Cup Predictions
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Egypt vs Iran
The model sees value in Iran’s win probability (41.4%) compared to the offered odds (2.38), which imply only a 42% chance—almost exactly in line, so no clear value. However, the under 2.5 goals market is mispriced: the model gives a 63% chance for under 2.5, while the odds (1.1) imply a much higher probability, making it unattractive. The best value appears in the BTTS 'No' market, where the model’s 56.6% probability outpaces the implied probability from odds of 1.12 (89%), so this is not a value play either. With current odds, no recommended bets offer positive expected value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Egypt vs Iran Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Egyptlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Iranlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Both teams arrive in strong form: Egypt have won three of their last five (form: WDWLW), averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. Iran are even hotter, with four wins in five (WWWLW), scoring 2.6 per game and also conceding just 0.6. However, international form data can be patchy and may not fully capture squad changes or opposition strength.
Egypt vs Iran — Last 3 Matches
🚩 Egypt vs Iran Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Egypt and 3.8 for Iran, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 34%.
What History Says: Egypt vs Iran
There is no recent head-to-head record between Egypt and Iran, and the two sides rarely meet in competitive fixtures. This match represents a fresh tactical encounter on the World Cup stage.
Egypt vs Iran Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Egypt wins
1
Draws
0
Iran wins
Things to Watch: Egypt vs Iran
- ⚠️No recommended bets as current bookmaker odds do not offer positive expected value versus model probabilities.
- ⚠️International form data is often sparse and may not fully reflect current squad dynamics.
- ⚠️Low-confidence match due to defensive strengths and lack of recent head-to-head data.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Egypt vs Iran: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.