ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
ES Hammam-Sousse
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 0 - 2
US Ben Guerdane
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: US Ben Guerdane Win
Match Result
6/10US Ben Guerdane Outclass ES Hammam-Sousse with Clinical 2-0 Away Win
US Ben Guerdane delivered a composed and professional performance at the Bou Ali Lahouar Stadium, securing a 2-0 victory over ES Hammam-Sousse in this Ligue 1 encounter. The visitors struck first in the 29th minute, setting the tone for a match where they maintained control and capitalized on their chances. A second goal in the 75th minute sealed the result, leaving the home side frustrated and unable to find a way back. ES Hammam-Sousse struggled to break down a disciplined Ben Guerdane defense, and their attacking efforts were further hampered by ill-discipline, as they picked up five yellow cards. In contrast, Ben Guerdane managed the game with maturity, conceding just one booking and demonstrating superior game management throughout the ninety minutes.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
0 - 2
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results3/3 hit
Key Moments
29' — Goal
US Ben Guerdane break the deadlock with the opening goal.
First Half' — Yellow Cards
ES Hammam-Sousse pick up multiple bookings, showing frustration.
75' — Goal
Ben Guerdane double their lead, effectively sealing the win.
Second Half' — Yellow Cards
Hammam-Sousse's discipline continues to falter with more bookings.
ES Hammam-Sousse
ES Hammam-Sousse endured a difficult afternoon, failing to find the net and struggling to create meaningful opportunities against a well-organized Ben Guerdane side. Their frustration was evident in the five yellow cards they collected, a sign of their inability to assert control or disrupt the visitors' rhythm without resorting to fouls. Despite home advantage, Hammam-Sousse lacked the attacking sharpness and composure needed to trouble their opponents. The hosts never truly recovered after conceding the opener, and their attempts to chase the game in the second half left them exposed, culminating in a decisive second goal for the visitors.
Strengths
Weaknesses
US Ben Guerdane
US Ben Guerdane produced a clinical and disciplined display on the road, making the most of their chances to claim all three points. Their early goal in the 29th minute allowed them to dictate the tempo, and their defensive organization limited Hammam-Sousse to few clear openings. The visitors' ability to stay composed under pressure was underlined by just a single yellow card over ninety minutes. A well-timed second goal in the 75th minute put the result beyond doubt, highlighting Ben Guerdane's efficiency in both attack and defense. Their game management and tactical discipline were key to a deserved victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With lineups unavailable, both teams' tactical approaches were evident from the match events. Ben Guerdane set up with a compact, disciplined shape, focusing on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their ability to strike first allowed them to drop deeper and absorb pressure, frustrating Hammam-Sousse, who struggled to break through. Hammam-Sousse, likely chasing the game after conceding, pushed forward but lacked the creative spark to unlock Ben Guerdane's defense. Their increasing desperation was reflected in their accumulation of yellow cards, suggesting a lack of composure and tactical discipline as they tried to regain momentum.
Turning Point
The opening goal in the 29th minute gave Ben Guerdane the confidence and tactical advantage to control the game, forcing Hammam-Sousse to chase and ultimately exposing them to the decisive second goal.
Man of the Match
First Goalscorer (29')
His opener set the tone for Ben Guerdane's composed and effective performance.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane: Match Preview
ES Hammam-Sousse enter this clash in a desperate run of form, rooted near the foot of the table after three straight defeats and just a single point from four matches. Their attack has been virtually non-existent, with only one goal scored and three blanks in their last five, while defensive lapses have left them with a -4 goal difference. In contrast, US Ben Guerdane are riding high in third, unbeaten this season, and buoyed by a recent 1-0 win and a thrilling 3-3 away draw that showcased their attacking depth.
The tactical contrast is stark: Hammam-Sousse average just 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last five, while Ben Guerdane have been far more potent, averaging 1.4 goals for and 1.2 against. Ben Guerdane’s attack has been particularly effective away from home (five goals in two matches), and they’ve shown an ability to score early, with four first-half goals in their last five. Hammam-Sousse, meanwhile, have struggled to create chances and have failed to score in three of their last five, making them vulnerable if they fall behind.
Given the momentum, Ben Guerdane are well-placed to control proceedings, likely to strike first and force Hammam-Sousse to chase the game. The model expects the visitors’ superior form and attacking confidence to tell, with Hammam-Sousse’s lack of firepower making a home comeback improbable. A low-scoring away win looks the most plausible outcome, with Ben Guerdane’s current trajectory and the hosts’ blunt attack the decisive factors.
How ES Hammam-Sousse and US Ben Guerdane Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
ES Hammam-Sousselast 5 matchesOccasional threat
US Ben Guerdanelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ES Hammam-Sousse are mired in a three-match losing streak, having managed just one goal in four Ligue 1 outings and sitting 15th in the table. US Ben Guerdane, by contrast, are unbeaten in four, with two wins and two draws, and have scored seven times in that span. The form trajectory is clear: Ben Guerdane are climbing, while Hammam-Sousse are struggling to adapt to the top flight.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane — Last 6 Matches
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane that most previews miss.
- 1Hammam-Sousse have failed to score in three of their last five matches and average just 0.25 goals per game this season.
- 2Ben Guerdane have scored in every league match so far, including five goals in two away games.
- 3Both teams have seen the first goal scored before the 30th minute in three of their combined last five matches.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.75
Expected goals · model says 1.50
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
41%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane Prediction
ES Hammam-Sousse limp into this fixture on the back of three consecutive defeats, having scored just once in four Ligue 1 matches and sitting second-bottom in the table. In stark contrast, US Ben Guerdane arrive unbeaten and riding a wave of momentum, with two wins and two draws from their opening four, including a 2-1 away victory and a dramatic 3-3 draw on the road. The form lines could hardly be more divergent, with Ben Guerdane’s attack firing and Hammam-Sousse struggling to keep pace at this level.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →US Ben Guerdane are unbeaten in four (W2 D2), netting seven goals and averaging 1.4 per game over their last five.
Defence
- →Hammam-Sousse have failed to score in three of their last five, while Ben Guerdane have conceded just once in their last two.
Match Context
- →ES Hammam-Sousse have lost three straight and scored only one goal in four Ligue 1 matches.
Where the Model Sees Value: ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: US Ben Guerdane Win
US Ben Guerdane are unbeaten in four (W2 D2), scoring seven and conceding five, while ES Hammam-Sousse have lost three straight and scored only once all season. The away side’s momentum and attacking output (1.4 goals per game last five) sharply contrast with the hosts’ blunt attack and defensive frailty.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No
Hammam-Sousse have failed to score in three of their last five and average just 0.25 goals per game this season, while Ben Guerdane have kept two clean sheets in their last four. The home side’s lack of attacking threat makes BTTS unlikely.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
While Ben Guerdane have shown attacking form, Hammam-Sousse’s matches have stayed under 2.5 goals in three of four this season, and the hosts rarely threaten to contribute to a high total.
Read more ↓
More Ligue 1 Predictions
What History Says: ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane
The recent head-to-head record is limited, with only two meetings in the last five years: a 2-1 Ben Guerdane win and a 1-1 draw in Sousse. There’s no sign of a strong home advantage, and Ben Guerdane have avoided defeat in both, though the small sample size limits the predictive power.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane Head-to-Head History
Last 3 meetings between these sides
0
ES Hammam-Sousse wins
1
Draws
2
US Ben Guerdane wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so it’s not possible to identify specific value edges. However, the model’s strong lean towards Ben Guerdane and against both teams to score would likely offer value if market odds overrate the home side’s chances or expect a more open contest.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent data lacks shot, possession, and set-piece statistics, limiting tactical depth.
- ⚠️Small sample size for head-to-head (only two meetings in the last five years).
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
ES Hammam-Sousse 0–2 US Ben GuerdaneA 2-0 away win is the model’s call, driven by Ben Guerdane’s unbeaten start and Hammam-Sousse’s ongoing struggles in front of goal. The single strongest data point is the home side’s three-match losing streak and meagre goal output, which makes it difficult to see them troubling a Ben Guerdane side in full flow. The main risk is that Ben Guerdane’s defence has been breached in three of four, so a late consolation or a set-piece could keep the scoreline closer than expected.
ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane: Common Questions
Who will win ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
The model gives US Ben Guerdane a 53% chance of victory, compared to just 14% for ES Hammam-Sousse, reflecting the away side’s unbeaten run and far superior form.
Will both teams score in ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane?
Both teams to score is rated at just 29%, as Hammam-Sousse have failed to score in three of their last five and average only 0.25 goals per game this season.
Can Ben Guerdane’s strong form continue?
Ben Guerdane are unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2) and have scored in every match, so the model expects their momentum to continue, especially against a Hammam-Sousse side on a three-match losing streak.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ES Hammam-Sousse vs US Ben Guerdane: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.