ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
ES Metlaoui
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 0 - 1
ES Zarzis
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.2/10Late Drama as ES Metlaoui Edge 10-Man ES Zarzis in Thrilling Finish
ES Metlaoui secured a dramatic 2-1 victory over ES Zarzis at the Metlaoui Municipal stadium, with the decisive goal arriving in stoppage time. After a goalless first half, the hosts broke the deadlock in the 64th minute, setting the stage for a tense finale. Zarzis, undeterred, found an equalizer in the 88th minute, but their hopes were dashed by a late red card and a last-gasp winner from Metlaoui in the dying moments of the match. Both sides finished with two yellow cards apiece, but Zarzis' numerical disadvantage following the red card proved costly. The match was a tale of resilience and late twists, with Metlaoui capitalizing on their man advantage to snatch all three points at the death.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
64' — Goal
ES Metlaoui open the scoring to take a 1-0 lead.
88' — Goal
ES Zarzis equalize, setting up a dramatic finish.
Late' — Red Card
ES Zarzis reduced to 10 men after a sending off.
90' — Goal
ES Metlaoui score a stoppage-time winner to seal all three points.
ES Metlaoui
ES Metlaoui showed grit and determination, especially in the closing stages. After taking the lead midway through the second half, they were pegged back late but maintained composure to press for a winner. Their ability to capitalize on Zarzis' red card and push forward in stoppage time was key to their victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis fought valiantly and showed character to equalize in the 88th minute, but their efforts were undermined by a costly red card in the closing stages. Despite being reduced to 10 men, they nearly salvaged a point but ultimately succumbed to Metlaoui's late pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With lineups and formations unavailable, the match narrative suggests both teams were well organized defensively for much of the contest, as indicated by the goalless first half. Metlaoui's willingness to push forward after conceding late, especially with a man advantage, paid dividends. Zarzis' tactical discipline unraveled following the red card, leaving them vulnerable to Metlaoui's late surge. Set pieces and late attacking substitutions likely played a role in the frantic closing stages.
Turning Point
The red card to ES Zarzis in the dying minutes, which immediately preceded Metlaoui's stoppage-time winner.
Man of the Match
Unknown (90')
Scored the decisive goal in stoppage time to win the match for ES Metlaoui.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis: Match Preview
ES Metlaoui enter this fixture struggling for traction, sitting 14th with just one win from five and a negative goal difference. Their home form offers little comfort, with two defeats in three at Metlaoui Municipal stadium, and a current streak of back-to-back losses. ES Zarzis, 10th in the table, have fared marginally better but remain winless away, their six points coming mostly from home fixtures.
The underlying numbers point to a contest where goals are at a premium. ES Metlaoui average just 0.6 goals scored per match and have failed to score in two of their last five, while Zarzis have managed only a single away goal all season. Both teams' last five league matches average under 2 goals per game combined, and neither side has shown much potency from open play or set pieces. Discipline has been steady, but with little attacking risk, the match is unlikely to become stretched.
The model expects a tight, low-event affair, with the most probable outcomes being 0-1, 0-0, or 1-1. ES Zarzis' marginally better attacking record and slightly higher clean sheet percentage tip the balance in their favour, but the distribution is heavily weighted towards a draw or a narrow away win. The likeliest scenario is that one goal settles it, most probably after half time.
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Expected goals · model says 0.65
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
20%
BTTS: Yes
28%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis that most previews miss.
- 1ES Metlaoui have kept just one clean sheet in their last five, but have also failed to score in two of those matches.
- 2ES Zarzis have scored only once in two away league games this season, conceding three in that span.
- 3Across the last ten H2H meetings, seven have finished with under 2.5 goals and three have ended 1-0 or 0-0.
Who do you think wins: ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in 60% of their league matches this season, and neither averages more than 1.2 goals scored or conceded per game across the last five.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw
The model gives a 38% probability to the draw, with both sides showing limited attacking output and a high rate of low-scoring, close matches.
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BTTS: No
BTTS has landed in just 2 of the last 5 for both teams, and both average over 2 failed-to-score matches in that span.
More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis Prediction
A low-scoring contest is on the cards as two sides with blunt attacks and disciplined defences meet in Metlaoui. ES Metlaoui have managed just three goals in five league outings, while ES Zarzis have only netted once in two away matches this season. The statistical shape points to a cagey, attritional battle with little between the teams.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →ES Metlaoui average 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season.
Match Context
- →ES Zarzis have failed to score in two of their last five and have just one away goal in two league trips.
- →Head-to-head meetings have produced under 2.5 goals in 7 of the last 10 encounters.
🚩 ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for ES Metlaoui and 4.4 for ES Zarzis, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How ES Metlaoui and ES Zarzis Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
ES Metlaouilast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
ES Zarzislast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
ES Metlaoui's form is poor, with four defeats in five and only three goals scored. Their only win came at home, but they've since lost two straight. ES Zarzis have also been inconsistent, alternating between wins and losses, but have shown slightly more attacking threat and come off a 2-0 win in their most recent outing.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis — Last 7 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis
The last ten meetings are balanced, with Metlaoui winning four, Zarzis three, and three draws. Low scores are common, with seven matches under 2.5 goals and three ending either goalless or 1-0. Neither side has established clear dominance in recent years.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
ES Metlaoui wins
3
Draws
3
ES Zarzis wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis
With no bookmaker odds available, it's not possible to quantify value edges. However, the model's strong lean towards under 2.5 goals and a low-probability BTTS outcome would be the focus if odds were posted, given the statistical rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Lack of shot and set-piece data limits precision on attacking intent.
- ⚠️Small sample size (5 league matches) for both teams may exaggerate defensive solidity.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
ES Metlaoui 0–1 ES ZarzisThe data points to a low-scoring match, with a 0-1 away win the most likely outcome. The strongest factor is both sides' inability to create or finish chances, reflected in their combined average of just 1.6 goals per game this season. The main risk is an early goal forcing the game open, but the historical pattern and current form both suggest a tight, defensive contest.
ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis: Common Questions
Who will win ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis?
The model gives ES Zarzis a 39% chance of victory, ES Metlaoui 23%, and a draw 38%. Both teams have struggled to score, so a narrow away win or a draw are the most probable results.
Will both teams score in ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis?
Both teams to score is rated at just 29% probability, with both sides failing to score in over half of their recent matches and seven of the last ten H2Hs seeing at least one blank.
How likely is under 2.5 goals in this match?
Under 2.5 goals is highly probable at 77%, supported by both teams averaging less than 1.2 goals scored or conceded per game and a strong low-scoring trend in their head-to-head history.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.