Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa Predictions
Ligue 1 · Tunisia
Olympique Béja
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
AS Marsa
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa
Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa: Match Preview
Olympique Béja enter this fixture in dire need of a spark, languishing 15th with just three points and no wins from seven outings. Their form string of DLLDD underlines a side struggling to convert narrow margins, with a meagre five goals scored and a -5 goal difference. AS Marsa, while not prolific themselves, sit 11th and have built their season on defensive solidity, conceding just four goals in seven matches and recording three clean sheets in their last five.
The statistical matchup points to a contest defined by defensive structure and limited attacking output. Béja's home record (0W 1D 2L, 3 GF, 5 GA) offers little comfort, while Marsa's away form is similarly blunt (0W 1D 2L, 1 GF, 3 GA). Both teams average under one goal scored per game, and their over 2.5 goal rates are well below league average (Béja 42.9%, Marsa 28.6%). First-half goals have been more common for Marsa (5 in last 5), but both sides have struggled to create high-quality chances overall.
Given these trends, the model expects a low-scoring, closely contested match, with the draw and under 2.5 goals as the most likely outcomes. Marsa's superior defensive metrics give them a slight edge, but their inability to convert away from home tempers expectations. The likeliest scenario is a single-goal margin or a goalless stalemate, with set pieces and discipline potentially tilting the balance.
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Expected goals · model says 0.60
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
18%
BTTS: Yes
26%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa that most previews miss.
- 1AS Marsa's matches average just 1.43 total goals per game (10 goals in 7 matches), the lowest among mid-table sides.
- 2Olympique Béja have scored in only 1 of their last 3 home games, and have yet to win at Boujemaa Kmiti Stadium this season.
- 3Four of the last five H2H meetings have been won to nil, with three clean sheets for the home side and one for the away.
Who do you think wins: Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides average under 1 goal scored per game this season (Olympique Béja 0.71, AS Marsa 0.86), and their combined over 2.5 rate is just 35.7% (3/7 for Béja, 2/7 for Marsa).
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Match Result: Draw
Olympique Béja are winless in 7 (0W 3D 4L) but have drawn 3, while AS Marsa have drawn 3 of 7 and are yet to win away. Both teams' attack and defensive rates point toward a low-margin contest.
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The Case For This Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa Prediction
A statistical deadlock is on the cards as Olympique Béja, still searching for their first win after seven rounds, host an AS Marsa side with the league's second-best defensive record but a blunt away attack. With both teams averaging under a goal per game and a combined 2.29 goals per match across their league campaigns, the model projects a low-scoring affair decided by fine margins.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Olympique Béja have failed to win in 7 league matches (0W 3D 4L), scoring just 5 goals.
Defence
- →AS Marsa have conceded only 4 goals in 7 matches (0.57 per game) and kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5.
Match Context
- →Both teams have scored in only 2 of AS Marsa's last 5 and 4 of Béja's last 5, with a strong tilt toward unders.
How Olympique Béja and AS Marsa Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Olympique Béjalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
AS Marsalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Olympique Béja are still searching for a first win after seven rounds, with a form line of DLLDD and a total of just five goals scored. AS Marsa have been harder to beat, picking up two wins and three draws from seven, and have conceded only once in their last three matches. Both sides are defensively oriented, but Marsa's recent shutout streak gives them a slight momentum edge.
Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +57.14% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa
The recent head-to-head record is notable for its lopsided results, including a 6-0 win for Marsa and two 3-0 home wins for Béja. Four of the last five meetings have been won to nil, suggesting a trend toward clean sheets for the victor. The most recent clash saw Marsa win 1-0 away, breaking Béja's previous home dominance.
Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
3
Olympique Béja wins
0
Draws
2
AS Marsa wins
Things to Watch: Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value and EV cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️No shot, possession, or set piece data available for either team; model relies on goal and result rates.
- ⚠️Small sample sizes and early-season volatility may affect reliability of home/away splits.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Olympique Béja 0–1 AS MarsaThe model projects a 1-0 away win for AS Marsa, driven primarily by their defensive record (0.57 goals conceded per game, 57% clean sheet rate) against a Béja side averaging just 0.71 goals per match. The most plausible way this prediction is wrong is if Béja's home drought ends via a set piece or Marsa's attack again falters on the road, resulting in a goalless draw.
Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa: Common Questions
Who will win Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa?
The model gives AS Marsa a 37% chance of victory, with the draw slightly more likely at 41% and Olympique Béja at 22%. Marsa's defensive strength and Béja's winless run make an away win or draw the statistical lean.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa?
Under 2.5 goals is strongly favoured at 77%, as both teams average under one goal scored per game and Marsa's matches have gone under 2.5 in 71% of their fixtures.
Will both teams score in Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa?
Both teams to score is rated at just 31%, with 'no' at 69%. Marsa have kept three clean sheets in their last five, while Béja have failed to score in one of their last five and average just 0.71 goals per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.