Estoril vs Benfica Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Estoril
AI Predicted Score
0 - 2
Benfica
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 0–2
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Expected goals · model says 0.65
Expected goals · model says 2.55
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
0-2 · 0-3 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Estoril vs Benfica Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Estoril vs Benfica?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Estoril vs Benfica(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 0–2
Benfica's defensive solidity and Estoril's recent attacking struggles suggest a likely clean sheet for the visitors, while Benfica's season and recent away scoring rates support a 2-goal margin.
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BTTS: No@ 1.22
Estoril have failed to score in 2 of their last 5, and Benfica's clean sheet rate is high. The odds are short, but the model expects BTTS: No to land most of the time.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.83
Both teams have high season over 2.5 rates (Estoril 61%, Benfica 70%), but Estoril's recent attack is weak. Marginal value, but over is more likely than under.
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More Primeira Liga Predictions
The Case For This Estoril vs Benfica Prediction
Benfica travel to Estoril as strong favorites, boasting an unbeaten league record and a dominant head-to-head history. Estoril's recent form has been poor, with no wins in five and a struggling attack, while Benfica have continued to score freely and avoid defeat. Expect Benfica to control the match, limit Estoril's chances, and likely secure a comfortable victory.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Benfica are unbeaten in the league (22W, 11D, 0L) and have won 11 of 16 away games.
- →Estoril have not won in their last five matches (form: DDLLL) and have scored just 3 goals in that span.
- →Benfica have won 9 of the last 10 H2H meetings, including all recent trips to Estoril.
Defence
- →Benfica's defensive record is strong: only 24 conceded in 33 matches, with a 42% clean sheet rate.
- →Estoril's last 5: 0.6 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game; Benfica's last 5: 2.4 scored, 1.2 conceded.
Match Context
- →Estoril's home record is average (6W, 5D, 5L) with a negative goal difference.
🚩 Estoril vs Benfica Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Estoril and 5.4 for Benfica, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 68% · Over 10.5: 44%.
How Estoril and Benfica Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Estoril vs Benfica Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Estorillast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Benficalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Estoril come into this match winless in their last five, with two draws followed by three defeats, and have struggled to create chances or score goals. In contrast, Benfica are unbeaten in their last five (3W, 2D), scoring at least two goals in four of those games, and remain one of the league's most consistent sides.
Estoril vs Benfica — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 69.7% of games this season
What History Says: Estoril vs Benfica
The head-to-head record is overwhelmingly in Benfica's favor, with nine wins and one draw in the last ten meetings. Estoril have consistently struggled to breach Benfica's defense, and recent matches have seen Benfica win comfortably both home and away.
Estoril vs Benfica Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
0
Estoril wins
1
Draws
9
Benfica wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Estoril vs Benfica
Bookmaker odds heavily favor Benfica, leaving little value on the away win or BTTS: No markets, which are both priced very short. The model sees the draw as slightly more likely than the odds suggest, but not enough to justify a strong play. Overall, this is a match where value is scarce due to the lopsided matchup and market awareness.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Estoril vs Benfica
- ⚠️Estoril's attack has been inconsistent, but their season scoring average is higher than recent form.
- ⚠️Benfica have drawn their last two matches, suggesting some late-season drop in intensity.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but final lineups are unavailable at time of prediction.
- ⚠️Some match stats for Estoril's recent games are missing, reducing precision of some averages.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Estoril vs Benfica: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.