Estrela vs Famalicao Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Estrela
AI Predicted Score
0 - 2
Famalicao
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Famalicao Win
@ 1.4
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Expected goals · model says 0.40
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
23%
BTTS: Yes
24%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-0 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Estrela vs Famalicao Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Estrela vs Famalicao?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Estrela vs Famalicao(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Famalicao Win@ 1.4
Famalicao are in strong form (DWDDD), have a solid away record, and face an Estrela side on a five-game losing streak with poor home defensive numbers. The odds are short but reflect the gap in quality and momentum.
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BTTS: No@ 1.2
Estrela have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and Famalicao have a high clean sheet rate (47%). The matchup points to a likely clean sheet for the visitors.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.2
Both teams trend to the under (Estrela 53% over, Famalicao only 41% over 2.5), and recent games suggest a low-scoring pattern, especially given Estrela's attacking struggles.
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The Case For This Estrela vs Famalicao Prediction
Estrela come into this fixture in desperate form, having lost five consecutive matches and scoring just once in their last four. Famalicao, meanwhile, are unbeaten in five and have proven difficult to break down, especially away from home. The visitors' defensive solidity and Estrela's attacking woes point toward a controlled Famalicao win, likely with few goals.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Estrela's five-game losing streak and low recent goal output
Attack
- →Low likelihood of both teams scoring based on recent form
Defence
- →Famalicao's strong away record and high clean sheet percentage
- →Estrela's home defensive vulnerabilities (1.5 goals conceded per home game)
Match Context
- →Famalicao's motivation to secure European places vs Estrela's relegation battle
🚩 Estrela vs Famalicao Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.8 corners for Estrela and 4.2 for Famalicao, for an expected total of 8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 41% · Over 10.5: 18%.
How Estrela and Famalicao Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Estrela vs Famalicao Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Estrelalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Famalicaolast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Estrela's form has collapsed with five straight defeats, conceding nearly two goals per game and scoring just three in that span. Famalicao, in contrast, are unbeaten in five (DWDDD), showing resilience with four draws and a win, and have not failed to score in any of those matches.
Estrela vs Famalicao — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +46.88% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Estrela vs Famalicao
The head-to-head record is fairly even, but Famalicao's last visit to Estrela ended in a comfortable 3-0 win for the visitors. Recent meetings have produced both high and low-scoring games, but Estrela's current form is significantly worse than in previous H2H encounters.
Estrela vs Famalicao Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
2
Estrela wins
2
Draws
1
Famalicao wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Estrela vs Famalicao
Bookmaker odds are very short on Famalicao and the under markets, leaving little value for punters. The model's probabilities align closely with the market, suggesting the odds are efficient. The draw market offers the only slight alignment, but with both teams' trajectories, away win remains the most likely outcome.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Estrela vs Famalicao
- ⚠️Estrela are fighting relegation and may show unexpected urgency.
- ⚠️Famalicao have drawn several recent matches; a draw is a secondary risk.
- ⚠️Market odds are very short for away win and unders, limiting value.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but final lineups are not known.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Estrela vs Famalicao: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.