Everton vs Ipswich Predictions
Premier League · England
Everton
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Ipswich
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 1.8(+1% edge)
Match Result
6.8/10Everton Edge Ipswich in Tight Affair at Hill Dickinson Stadium
Everton secured a hard-fought 1-0 victory over newly-promoted Ipswich Town at Hill Dickinson Stadium, thanks to an early goal and disciplined defensive display. The Toffees struck in the 11th minute and managed to keep Ipswich at bay, despite the visitors' spirited attempts and a flurry of late drama that included a red card for the away side. The hosts dominated the attacking statistics, registering 21 shots to Ipswich's 13, but only managed two on target, underlining their wastefulness in front of goal. Ipswich, meanwhile, matched Everton's intensity and threatened with four shots on target, but ultimately could not find a way past Jordan Pickford. A second-half red card further hampered their comeback hopes, allowing Everton to see out the win and claim all three points.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
11' — Goal
T. Barry opens the scoring for Everton, finishing a well-worked move to give the hosts an early lead.
54' — Yellow Card
J. Garner (Everton) booked for a tactical foul to halt an Ipswich counter.
68' — Red Card
Ipswich reduced to ten men after a second yellow card for E. Palacios, shifting the momentum firmly in Everton's favor.
76' — Yellow Card
A. Maitland-Niles (Everton) cautioned for time-wasting as the hosts look to see out the win.
Everton
Everton started brightly, taking the lead in the 11th minute and controlling possession for much of the match (52%). While they created plenty of opportunities, their finishing let them down, with only two of their 21 shots testing the goalkeeper. The midfield duo of H. Armstrong and J. Garner provided stability, while the backline, marshaled by J. Tarkowski and J. Branthwaite, stood firm under late Ipswich pressure. Everton managed the game well after going ahead, especially after Ipswich were reduced to ten men.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Ipswich
Ipswich put in a gritty display on their Premier League travels, matching Everton's intensity and creating several decent chances, with four shots on target from 13 attempts. They held their own in possession (48%) and were not overawed by the occasion, but their task became much harder following a second-half red card. Despite being reduced to ten men, Ipswich continued to push forward, but ultimately lacked the clinical edge to break through Everton's defense.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, leading to a crowded midfield and frequent battles for control in the center of the park. Everton looked to exploit the flanks, especially through K. Dewsbury-Hall and J. Grealish, but often found Ipswich's defensive block difficult to break down. Ipswich, meanwhile, looked to transition quickly through J. Clarke and A. Fatawu, but their efforts were stymied by Everton's disciplined double pivot of Armstrong and Garner. After the red card, Ipswich dropped deeper, switching to a more defensive posture, while Everton became more conservative, focusing on retaining possession and limiting risks. Set pieces offered both sides opportunities, but neither could capitalize, with corners finishing level at four apiece.
Turning Point
The red card to E. Palacios in the 68th minute, which ended Ipswich's hopes of mounting a comeback.
Man of the Match
T. Barry
Scored the decisive goal and was a constant threat in attack, making the difference in a tight contest.
Everton vs Ipswich: Match Preview
Everton come into this fixture unbeaten in the league (W1 D2), sitting 8th with a positive goal difference and two home matches yielding four goals scored. Their form string 'DDWWD' reflects a side that has found a defensive base and late resilience, as seen in their last-gasp equaliser against Manchester United. Ipswich, meanwhile, are 14th after two defeats in three, conceding eight in that span and failing to keep a clean sheet, with their only away match ending in a 5-2 loss.
The statistical matchup is defined by Everton's ability to generate volume—15.2 shots and 5.6 on target per match over their last five—against an Ipswich defence conceding 2.67 goals per game and allowing five in their only away outing. Ipswich's attack has produced 2.2 goals per match over the last five in all competitions, but their shot volume (9.6 per game) and possession (33.2%) lag behind. Everton's defensive metrics (0.8 conceded per game last five, two clean sheets) suggest they can restrict Ipswich, especially at home.
The model expects Everton to control territory and chances, with the likeliest outcome a 2-1 home win. The distribution of goals points to a higher probability of over 2.5 goals (56%) and both teams scoring (54%), but Everton's defensive edge and Ipswich's away frailty tip the balance. A draw is not out of the question given Everton's tendency to share points, but the underlying rates favour the hosts.
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Everton vs Ipswich Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Everton vs Ipswich that most previews miss.
- 1Ipswich have conceded five goals in their only away league match this season, the highest single-game total among Premier League away teams after three rounds.
- 2Everton's last five matches have averaged 2.8 total goals, with three of those seeing both teams score.
- 3Ipswich have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five, conceding at least twice in three of those games.
Who do you think wins: Everton vs Ipswich?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Everton vs Ipswich(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Everton Win@ 1.78
Everton are unbeaten in three league matches (W1 D2), have averaged 1.67 goals scored and just 1 conceded per game, and face an Ipswich side conceding 2.67 per match with no clean sheets. However, the market price is tight to the model's probability, so value is marginal.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.8
Ipswich's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 67% of league games (8 conceded in 3), while Everton's attack is averaging 2.0 goals per match over their last five in all competitions. The model's 56% probability is just above the implied odds.
Read more ↓
More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Everton vs Ipswich Prediction
Statistically, this fixture profiles as a moderate-scoring contest with Everton's defensive solidity at home meeting an Ipswich side prone to conceding on the road. Everton's recent home output (2.0 goals per game, two clean sheets in their last five) contrasts with Ipswich's defensive record—eight goals shipped in three league outings and no clean sheets. The model expects Everton's superior shot volume (15.2 per game last five) and Ipswich's away frailty (five conceded in their only road match) to drive the outcome, with a 2-1 home win the likeliest scenario.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Everton have averaged 15.2 shots and 5.6 on target per match over their last five, indicating sustained attacking output.
Defence
- →Ipswich's season-long away record shows five goals conceded in one match, with a season average of 2.67 conceded per game.
- →Everton have kept two clean sheets in their last five, while Ipswich have failed to keep any in the same span.
🚩 Everton vs Ipswich Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Everton and 4.4 for Ipswich, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 55% · Over 10.5: 30%.
How Everton and Ipswich Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Everton vs Ipswich Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Evertonlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ipswichlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Everton are unbeaten in their last five competitive matches, including a 2-2 home draw with Manchester United and a 4-0 League Cup win at Preston, showing both resilience and attacking depth. Ipswich, by contrast, have lost back-to-back league games, conceding seven goals in those defeats, and have yet to keep a clean sheet in any competition this season.
Everton vs Ipswich — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Everton vs Ipswich
Everton have the edge in recent head-to-heads, winning away 2-0 in 2024 and drawing 2-2 at home last season. Both encounters saw Everton score twice, and Ipswich have yet to beat Everton in this Premier League era.
Everton vs Ipswich Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Everton wins
1
Draws
0
Ipswich wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Everton vs Ipswich
The model's probabilities are closely aligned with bookmaker odds across major markets, with only marginal value seen on over 2.5 goals (model 56%, odds-implied 56%). No significant edges are present, suggesting the market is efficiently priced for this fixture.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Everton vs Ipswich
- ⚠️Small sample sizes early in the season limit the robustness of home/away splits.
- ⚠️Ipswich's attack has shown flashes (2.2 goals per game last five) but is inconsistent.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Everton 2–1 IpswichThe model projects a 2-1 Everton victory, anchored by Ipswich's 2.67 goals conceded per league match and Everton's consistent attacking output at home. The biggest risk to this call is Everton's recent tendency to draw games despite superior shot numbers, suggesting that if their finishing falters, a 1-1 or 2-2 result is plausible.
Everton vs Ipswich: Common Questions
Who will win Everton vs Ipswich?
The model gives Everton a 53% probability to win, with the draw at 27% and Ipswich at 20%. Everton's unbeaten start and Ipswich's defensive struggles on the road make the hosts favourites.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Ipswich?
Both teams to score is rated at 54% probability, reflecting Everton's tendency to concede at home and Ipswich's 2.2 goals per game average over their last five. However, Ipswich's attack has been inconsistent.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Everton vs Ipswich?
Over 2.5 goals is given a 56% probability by the model, supported by Ipswich's high concession rate (2.67 per game) and Everton's 2.0 goals per game average over their last five matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Everton vs Ipswich: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.