Famalicao vs Benfica Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Famalicao
AI Predicted Score
0 - 2
Benfica
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Benfica Win
@ 1.2
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Expected goals · model says 0.60
Expected goals · model says 1.95
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS: Yes
39%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 0-3
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Famalicao vs Benfica Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Famalicao vs Benfica?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Famalicao vs Benfica(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Benfica Win@ 1.2
Benfica are unbeaten all season, have a strong away record (11W 4D 0L), and are in excellent form (WWWDW). Famalicao are solid but have struggled to score against top sides and have not beaten Benfica in the last 3 meetings. However, odds are short and expected value is negative.
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BTTS: No@ 1.2
Benfica's defense is elite (0.65 goals conceded/game), Famalicao have failed to score in several H2Hs, and 'no' has hit in 7 of last 10 H2Hs. Odds are too short for positive EV.
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Correct Score: 0–2
Most likely scoreline based on both teams' defensive strength and Benfica's away scoring rate.
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The Case For This Famalicao vs Benfica Prediction
Benfica arrive as clear favorites, boasting an unbeaten league record and a dominant away record. Famalicao are solid at home and in decent form, but their attack is unlikely to break down Benfica's defense, which has conceded just 9 away goals all season. Expect Benfica to control the game, create more chances, and likely keep a clean sheet. Famalicao may keep it competitive for stretches, but Benfica's quality and depth should see them through.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent form: Benfica WWWDW, Famalicao WDDDW.
- →H2H: Benfica have won 7 of last 10, Famalicao failed to score in 7 of those.
Defence
- →Benfica unbeaten in league (22W 9D 0L), best away defense (9 conceded in 15).
Injuries & Team News
- →No major injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Famalicao strong at home (8W 3D 4L, 24:10 goal ratio), but rarely score more than once vs top sides.
🚩 Famalicao vs Benfica Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Famalicao and 7.8 for Benfica, for an expected total of 13.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (86%). Over 8.5: 91% · Over 10.5: 78%.
How Famalicao and Benfica Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Famalicao vs Benfica Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Famalicaolast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Benficalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Famalicao vs Benfica — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +48.39% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +45.16% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Famalicao vs Benfica
Famalicao vs Benfica Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Famalicao wins
1
Draws
7
Benfica wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Famalicao vs Benfica
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Famalicao vs Benfica
- ⚠️Famalicao are in good form and have drawn with Porto and Braga recently.
- ⚠️Benfica may rotate if title is out of reach, but no injury info suggests full squad.
- ⚠️Some missing advanced stats (shots/possession for all games), but overall data coverage is strong.
- ⚠️Odds on favorites and unders are very short, limiting value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Famalicao vs Benfica: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.