Estoril vs Casa Pia Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Estoril
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 0
Casa Pia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.8/10Casa Pia Stun Estoril With Late Comeback in Cascais Thriller
Casa Pia produced a dramatic late turnaround to snatch a 2-1 victory over Estoril at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. Estoril looked in control after taking the lead in the 70th minute, but Casa Pia responded instantly and then struck a decisive blow in the dying moments to secure all three points. The hosts edged possession with 53% and fired 14 shots (six on target), but their inability to convert dominance into goals proved costly. Casa Pia, meanwhile, were clinical, making the most of their 11 shots (three on target) and showing resilience to overturn the deficit. The match was a tale of shifting momentum, with both sides battling hard but Casa Pia ultimately emerging victorious thanks to their late-game composure.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
70' — Goal
Y. Begraoui scores to give Estoril a 1-0 lead, finishing a well-worked move.
72' — Goal
Casa Pia respond instantly, leveling the match just two minutes after conceding.
89' — Goal
Henrique Araújo scores the winner for Casa Pia, capping a late comeback.
Various' — Yellow Cards
A total of five yellow cards shown, reflecting the match's competitive edge.
Estoril
Estoril controlled much of the match, dictating play with 53% possession and creating more chances than their opponents. Their attacking intent was clear, registering 14 shots and winning seven corners, but a lack of cutting edge in front of goal and lapses in concentration at the back proved their undoing. Despite taking the lead in the 70th minute, Estoril struggled to maintain their advantage, conceding almost immediately and then again late on. The midfield duo of J. Holsgrove and M. Robin provided energy, but the team ultimately paid the price for not capitalizing on their periods of dominance.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Casa Pia
Casa Pia showed impressive resilience and opportunism, coming from behind to claim a memorable away win. Despite seeing less of the ball (47% possession) and producing fewer shots, they made their efforts count, scoring twice from just three shots on target. Their response to falling behind was immediate, leveling the score within two minutes and then capitalizing on a late opportunity to seal the victory. The midfield provided solid cover, while Henrique Araújo led the line with purpose. Casa Pia's defensive discipline and clinical finishing were key to their success.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, seeking to control the midfield and exploit width through their full-backs. Estoril's approach was proactive, pressing high and looking to dominate possession, which resulted in more shots and corners. Their double pivot of Holsgrove and Robin allowed the attacking trio to push forward, but left them occasionally vulnerable to quick transitions. Casa Pia, meanwhile, were more compact and disciplined, absorbing pressure before breaking forward with pace. Their midfield shield, led by Silvi and Ofori, provided cover for the back four, while Henrique Araújo's movement up front kept Estoril's defense on alert. Substitutions and tactical tweaks after falling behind allowed Casa Pia to push higher and seize control late on, ultimately leading to their dramatic winner.
Turning Point
Casa Pia's immediate equalizer in the 72nd minute, which shifted momentum and set the stage for their late winner.
Man of the Match
Henrique Araújo
Scored the decisive 89th-minute goal and led the line with determination throughout.
Estoril vs Casa Pia: Match Preview
Estoril and Casa Pia meet as the two bottom sides in the Primeira Liga, both still searching for a first win of the campaign. Estoril have managed just two goals in five matches (0.4 per game) and have failed to score in three of their last five, while Casa Pia's numbers are even starker: one goal scored in six matches and none at all away from home. Both sides are under early pressure, and the league table reflects their struggles—Estoril sit 17th with two points, Casa Pia 18th with just one.
Statistically, this fixture is shaped by the lack of attacking threat on both sides. Estoril's home matches average just 1.3 total goals (1 scored, 3 conceded in three games), while Casa Pia's away games have seen only three goals in total across three matches. Shot volumes are modest (Estoril 12.6, Casa Pia 10.4 per game over the last five), and both teams have been prone to long periods without scoring. Cards and corners are near league average, with Estoril slightly more active on set pieces (5 corners per game) but neither side standing out for discipline or set-piece threat.
Given these rates, the model expects a tight, low-scoring contest. Estoril's marginally better defensive record and home advantage make them slight favourites, but the most likely outcomes are either a narrow home win or a goalless draw. The predicted scoreline is 1-0, with under 2.5 goals and 'both teams to score: no' the strongest statistical leans.
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Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 0.50
Over 2.5 Goals
18%
BTTS: Yes
24%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Estoril vs Casa Pia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Estoril vs Casa Pia that most previews miss.
- 1Casa Pia have failed to score in all three away matches this season and have just one goal in six league games overall.
- 2Five of the last ten H2H meetings ended in draws, and three of the last four finished either 0-0 or 2-2.
- 3Estoril's home matches this season average just 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 points per game.
Who do you think wins: Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Estoril vs Casa Pia(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams average under 0.5 goals scored per game (Estoril 0.4, Casa Pia 0.17) and have combined for just 3 goals in 8 home/away matches this season, supporting a low-goal environment.
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Match Result: Draw
Five of the last ten meetings between these sides have ended level, and both teams rank bottom two for points and goals, making a stalemate statistically plausible.
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BTTS: No
Casa Pia have failed to score in five of six matches, Estoril in three of five, and only one of their last five H2H meetings saw both teams score.
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More Primeira Liga Predictions
The Case For This Estoril vs Casa Pia Prediction
This is a meeting of the league's two lowest-scoring sides, with Estoril and Casa Pia both winless and desperate for points. Estoril's home output is anaemic but Casa Pia's away attack is even more blunt, so the edge tilts narrowly to the hosts in a match where defensive frailty may not be punished. Expect a slow-burn contest, with the underlying rates pointing to a low-scoring, cagey affair.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Head-to-head: 5 draws in last 10 meetings, including 2 of last 3.
Attack
- →Estoril average just 0.4 goals scored per game, Casa Pia 0.17.
Match Context
- →Casa Pia have not scored in any away fixture this season (0 goals in 3 away).
🚩 Estoril vs Casa Pia Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Estoril and 4.6 for Casa Pia, for an expected total of 10.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 73% · Over 10.5: 49%.
How Estoril and Casa Pia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Estoril vs Casa Pia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Estorillast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Casa Pialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Estoril enter on a five-game winless run (DLLLD), but have managed two draws in their last three and showed some attacking intent at home with 18 shots in their most recent fixture. Casa Pia are in even worse form, losing four of their last five and scoring just once all season, with their only point coming in a 0-0 away draw.
Estoril vs Casa Pia — Last 6 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
What History Says: Estoril vs Casa Pia
Recent head-to-head meetings have been closely contested, with five draws in the last ten and three of the last four ending level. Casa Pia have only beaten Estoril once in this period, while Estoril have kept four clean sheets in these ten encounters.
Estoril vs Casa Pia Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Estoril wins
5
Draws
1
Casa Pia wins
Things to Watch: Estoril vs Casa Pia
- ⚠️Market odds not available, so no value edge can be calculated.
- ⚠️Small sample size early in season; attacking output could change with new signings or tactical shifts.
- ⚠️Both teams are underperforming, which can increase variance in low-quality matchups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Estoril 1–0 Casa PiaThe model projects a 1-0 win for Estoril, driven by Casa Pia's league-worst attacking record (0.17 goals per game, no away goals). The main risk is Estoril's own inability to convert chances—if their finishing woes persist, a goalless draw becomes the most plausible alternative.
Estoril vs Casa Pia: Common Questions
Who will win Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Estoril are slight favourites with a 45% probability of winning, compared to 38% for a draw and 17% for a Casa Pia victory. Both teams have struggled badly in attack, so a low-scoring result is likely.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
The probability of both teams scoring is just 19%, reflecting Casa Pia's record of failing to score in five of six matches and Estoril's three blanks in five. The data strongly favours 'no' for BTTS.
How many goals will there be in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 79% probability, with both teams averaging under 0.5 goals scored per game this season and a combined total of just three goals in eight home/away fixtures.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Estoril vs Casa Pia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.