Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K. Predictions
1. Lig · Turkey
Fatih Karagümrük
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 2
Manisa F.K.
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.75(+16% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Fatih Karagümrük Held by Manisa F.K. in Fiery Istanbul Stalemate
Fatih Karagümrük and Manisa F.K. shared the spoils in a tense 1-1 draw at Yusuf Ziya Onis Stadium, with both sides showcasing periods of dominance but ultimately unable to find a decisive winner. The hosts struck first through A. Pešić in the 31st minute, capitalizing on their early control and territorial advantage. However, Manisa F.K. responded with resilience, equalizing midway through the second half to silence the home crowd. Despite Karagümrük's 58% possession and a barrage of 21 shots, their profligacy in front of goal—managing just three on target—proved costly. Manisa F.K., meanwhile, absorbed pressure and struck back with clinical efficiency, making the most of their limited opportunities. The match was marked by physicality, with 41 fouls and three yellow cards, reflecting the high stakes and intensity on display.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
31' — Goal
A. Pešić opens the scoring for Karagümrük after sustained pressure.
71' — Goal
C. Sylla levels for Manisa F.K., finishing off a rare attacking move.
45' — Yellow Card
Karagümrük's only booking, reflecting a physical first half.
54' — Yellow Card
Manisa F.K. pick up their first yellow as tempers flare.
78' — Yellow Card
Second Manisa F.K. player booked for a tactical foul.
Fatih Karagümrük
Karagümrük controlled large portions of the match, dictating the tempo with 58% possession and a robust passing game. Their attacking intent was clear, registering 21 shots and forcing six corners, but a lack of cutting edge in the final third meant they failed to convert dominance into goals. Defensively, they were largely solid, limiting Manisa to just nine shots, but a lapse in concentration allowed the visitors to level the score in the second half. A. Pešić provided the breakthrough and remained a constant threat, while midfielders like E. Akbaba and D. Toköz worked tirelessly to maintain control. However, the inability to break down a resolute Manisa defense after conceding left the hosts frustrated.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K. executed a disciplined away performance, soaking up pressure and striking on the counter. Despite seeing just 42% of the ball and conceding 21 shots, their defensive organization limited Karagümrük to only three shots on target. Their physical approach disrupted the hosts’ rhythm, as evidenced by 25 fouls and two bookings. The equalizer in the 71st minute was a testament to their perseverance and tactical discipline. Players like B. Touré and C. Hérelle were pivotal in defense and midfield, while C. Sylla provided the attacking spark needed to snatch a point on the road.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Karagümrük lined up in a 4-2-3-1, aiming to control midfield through the double pivot of D. Toköz and M. Siopis, with E. Akbaba pulling strings in the advanced role. Their approach relied on width and overlapping full-backs, but despite frequent forays forward, they struggled to convert chances, often meeting a well-drilled Manisa back line. Manisa F.K. deployed a 4-1-4-1, prioritizing defensive solidity and compactness. B. Touré anchored the midfield, screening the defense and disrupting Karagümrük's rhythm. The visitors were content to cede possession, focusing on quick transitions and set pieces. Their tactical discipline paid off, especially after the break, as they absorbed pressure and capitalized on a rare opportunity to equalize.
Turning Point
Sylla’s equalizer in the 71st minute shifted the momentum, deflating Karagümrük and allowing Manisa to see out the draw.
Man of the Match
C. Sylla
Scored the vital equalizer and led the line with energy, making the difference for the visitors.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.: Match Preview
Fatih Karagümrük and Manisa F.K. both arrive in Istanbul with 8 points from 6 matches, sitting 11th and 10th respectively. Karagümrük are unbeaten at home (2 wins, 1 draw, 5:3 goal difference), while Manisa’s away record is balanced (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, 6:7 goal difference). Both teams are coming off defeats and looking to stabilise after inconsistent early campaigns.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by attacking output and defensive vulnerability. Karagümrük average 1.5 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game, with Manisa even more prolific (1.83 scored) but just as porous defensively. Both sides have seen BTTS in nearly every recent match—Karagümrük in 5/5, Manisa in 4/5—and over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Manisa’s games. Set-piece numbers are moderate, but Manisa’s discipline is a concern with 2.6 yellow cards per match.
Given these rates, the model expects an open contest with both teams likely to score. Recent H2H meetings have also trended towards goals, and neither side has shown the defensive solidity to close out games. The most probable outcome is a high-scoring draw, with a 2-2 result narrowly the likeliest single scoreline.
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Expected goals · model says 1.55
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K. Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K. that most previews miss.
- 1Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 100% of their last five matches (9 goals for, 8 against).
- 2Manisa’s away matches average 4.33 total goals per game this season (6 scored, 7 conceded in 3 games).
- 3Across the last six H2H meetings, Manisa have won four times, including two away wins in Istanbul.
Who do you think wins: Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.72
The model assigns a 31% probability to the draw, above the 26.7% implied by odds of 3.75. Both teams have identical records (2W 2D 2L), and their last 5 matches average 1.8 goals scored and conceded per game, so a high-scoring stalemate is plausible.
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BTTS: Yes@ 1.57
Both teams have scored in 9 of their combined last 10 matches, with Fatih Karagümrük seeing BTTS in all of their last five. Defensive frailties on both sides (1.67 conceded per game) make BTTS highly likely.
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More 1. Lig Predictions
The Case For This Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K. Prediction
Both Fatih Karagümrük and Manisa F.K. enter this fixture locked on 8 points from 6 games, with nearly identical records and goal differences. Karagümrük are unbeaten at home (2W 1D), while Manisa have split their away games evenly (1W 1D 1L), and both sides are coming off losses. The table positions (10th and 11th) reflect a mid-table battle, but neither can afford to drop further off the pace. Statistically, this is a clash of high-scoring, defensively porous sides. Karagümrük average 1.5 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game, with Manisa slightly more potent at 1.83 scored but equally leaky at the back. Both teams' last five matches average 1.8 goals scored, and neither has managed more than one clean sheet in that span. The BTTS rate is 90% across their last five each, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Manisa’s games and 50% for Karagümrük. Set-piece threat is moderate, with both averaging around 4 corners per match, while discipline could be a factor—Manisa’s 2.6 yellow cards per game is notably high. Given the attacking rates and defensive records, the model expects an open contest with both sides likely to find the net. Recent H2H history also leans towards goals, with four of the last six meetings seeing at least three goals. The most probable outcome is a high-scoring draw, with a 2-2 result narrowly the likeliest single scoreline.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Fatih Karagümrük have seen BTTS in all of their last five matches; Manisa in four of five.
Defence
- →Both teams average at least 1.5 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game this season.
- →Neither side has kept more than one clean sheet in their last five matches.
🚩 Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K. Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.8 corners for Fatih Karagümrük and 4.6 for Manisa F.K., for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 47% · Over 10.5: 23%.
How Fatih Karagümrük and Manisa F.K. Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K. Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Fatih Karagümrüklast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Manisa F.K.last 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Karagümrük’s recent form reads LDDWW, with both wins coming at home and all five recent matches seeing both teams score. Manisa F.K. are on a two-match losing streak but had previously gone four unbeaten, and their last five include a 4-1 win and a 2-4 defeat, highlighting volatility at both ends.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K. — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 83.33% of games this season
What History Says: Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K. have the historical edge, winning four of the last six meetings and drawing one. Notably, they have won twice away at Karagümrük, including a 2-0 result last season. Recent encounters have been high-scoring, with the last two producing 2-2 and 2-0 scorelines.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K. Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
1
Fatih Karagümrük wins
1
Draws
4
Manisa F.K. wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.
The model finds the biggest value in the draw at odds of 3.75, with a 31% model probability versus a 26.7% market implied. There is also a notable edge on the away win (model 32%, market 27.8%), but the statistical deadlock and high draw rate suggest siding with the stalemate. Lack of BTTS and over/under odds limits value assessment on goal markets.
Odds from Betfair. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.
- ⚠️No over/under or BTTS odds available at time of writing, so value estimation is limited for those markets.
- ⚠️Early season sample size (6 games) means underlying team strength may not be fully revealed.
- ⚠️Lineups and late injuries are unknown; projected rates assume typical starters.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Fatih Karagümrük 2–2 Manisa F.K.A 2-2 draw is the model's baseline, driven by both teams’ high scoring and conceding rates (each allowing 1.67 goals per game, both averaging at least 1.5 scored). The single strongest data point is the combined 90% BTTS rate across their last five matches. The main way this projection could go wrong is if one side sharpens up defensively or the finishing cools off, but the underlying rates point to goals at both ends.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.: Common Questions
Who will win Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.?
The model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 37% chance, Manisa F.K. a 32% chance, and the draw a 31% chance. With both teams averaging 1.8 goals scored and conceded in their last five, a high-scoring draw is the baseline outcome.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.?
Yes is favoured at 65% probability, as both teams have seen BTTS in 9 of their combined last 10 matches, and neither has shown defensive solidity (1.67 goals conceded per game each).
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.?
The model estimates a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals, with Manisa’s matches going over that line in 83% of games this season and Karagümrük’s in 50%.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.