Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor Predictions
1. Lig · Turkey
Fatih Karagümrük
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Pendikspor
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor: Match Preview
Karagümrük enter this fixture on a two-game losing streak and sit 13th, just three points above the relegation zone. Their home record is steady (2 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss), but recent results have been underwhelming, with only one win in their last five league games. Pendikspor, 18th and in more urgent need of points, come in off three straight defeats, conceding seven goals in their last three league outings and winning just once away all season.
Statistically, both teams are defined by modest attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities. Karagümrük average 1.27 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game, with a clean sheet rate of just 9%. Pendikspor's away defence is particularly weak, conceding 2.5 goals per away match, but their attack is similarly blunt, averaging just 1.0 goals per away fixture. Both sides have a high draw rate (4/11 matches), and set-piece threat is minimal, with neither side averaging more than 3.5 corners per game in their last five. The first half is typically cagey, with under 0.5 first-half goals in more than half of their recent matches.
The model expects a low-scoring, competitive match, with neither side likely to dominate. The most probable outcome is a draw, with 1-1 the likeliest scoreline, reflecting both teams' season-long averages and their head-to-head record. The main risk is Pendikspor's away defence collapsing, but Karagümrük's attack has not shown enough to fully exploit it.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor that most previews miss.
- 1Pendikspor have conceded 15 goals in 6 away league matches (2.5 per game), the second-worst away defence in the division.
- 2Karagümrük's last five home games have produced just 10 total goals (2.0 per game), with three ending in draws.
- 3Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in 9 of 11 league matches this season (clean sheet rate: 9%).
Who do you think wins: Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average just over a goal per game (Karagümrük 1.27, Pendikspor 1.09), while defensive records are poor but not catastrophic; the draw is well supported by both teams' high draw rates (Karagümrük 4/11, Pendikspor 4/11), and the 1-1 has occurred in 3 of their last 10 H2H.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Season over 2.5 goal rates are modest (Karagümrük 36%, Pendikspor 45%), and both teams have struggled for attacking fluency recently, with neither averaging more than 1.2 goals per game in their last five.
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More 1. Lig Predictions
The Case For This Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor Prediction
A mid-table Karagümrük side with a negative goal difference hosts a Pendikspor team rooted in the relegation zone, both searching for stability after recent poor runs. Karagümrük's home record (2W, 3D, 1L, 8:7) is steady if unspectacular, while Pendikspor's away form (1W, 1D, 4L, 6:15) has been undermined by defensive frailty. Both teams have managed just one win in their last five league outings, and neither has kept more than one clean sheet in that span. The statistical matchup is defined by low attacking output and leaky defences. Karagümrük average 1.27 scored and 1.36 conceded per game, with just 9% clean sheets on the season. Pendikspor's defence is even more porous away, shipping 2.5 goals per away game, but their attack is similarly blunt (1.0 scored per away game). Both sides have drawn 4 of 11, and their last five games see them averaging under 1.5 goals scored per match. Set-piece threat is limited, with both teams combining for just 5.4 corners per game in their last five. Given these rates, a low-scoring, closely contested draw is the likeliest outcome. The 1-1 scoreline is supported by both teams' season averages and their head-to-head history, with neither side showing the form or firepower to pull away. The main risk is Pendikspor's defensive collapse on the road, but Karagümrük's attack has not been clinical enough to fully exploit it.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Karagümrük average 1.27 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game, with just 9% clean sheets.
- →Pendikspor have conceded 15 goals in 6 away games (2.5 per game), but only scored 6 (1.0 per game).
Match Context
- →Both teams have drawn 4 of 11 league matches, and each has just one win in their last five.
🚩 Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Fatih Karagümrük and 4.6 for Pendikspor, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Fatih Karagümrük and Pendikspor Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Fatih Karagümrüklast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Pendiksporlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Karagümrük have lost their last two and won just once in five, with only three goals scored in that stretch. Pendikspor's form is even more concerning: three straight league losses, seven conceded in that span, and just one win in their last nine. Both teams are struggling for momentum, with results trending towards draws and low-scoring affairs.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor
The last 10 meetings are evenly split, with both sides winning four and drawing two. Notably, the away team has won each of the last three competitive encounters, and three of the last 10 have finished 1-1 or 2-0. There is no clear historical dominance, but the fixture tends to be competitive and often low-scoring.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Fatih Karagümrük wins
2
Draws
4
Pendikspor wins
Things to Watch: Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis; value edges and expected value cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Both teams' recent form is poor and volatile, increasing draw probability but also raising risk of a defensive collapse.
- ⚠️No injury news reported, but lineups are not confirmed for this fixture.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Fatih Karagümrük 1–1 PendiksporThe data points strongly to a low-scoring draw, with 1-1 the likeliest outcome based on both teams' scoring and concession rates and their high draw frequency. The single strongest data point is Pendikspor's 2.5 goals conceded per away match, but Karagümrük's lack of attacking efficiency tempers any expectation of a home rout. The most plausible way this goes wrong is a defensive collapse from Pendikspor, but their hosts have not shown the firepower to fully capitalise.
Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor: Common Questions
Who will win Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor?
The model gives Karagümrük a 38% chance of victory, Pendikspor a 26% chance, and the draw a 36% chance. Both teams have drawn 4 of 11 league matches, and neither arrives in strong form.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in this match?
Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 56% probability, with both teams averaging just over a goal scored per game and a combined season over 2.5 rate of 41%.
How likely is both teams to score (BTTS) in Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor?
Both teams to score is rated at 54%, supported by recent form (Karagümrük BTTS in 3 of last 5, Pendikspor in 4 of last 5) and defensive records showing only one clean sheet each all season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Fatih Karagümrük vs Pendikspor: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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