FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin Predictions
Bundesliga · Germany
FC Augsburg
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Union Berlin
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 2.38(+8% edge)
Recommended Bets: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin: Match Preview
Augsburg arrive in sixth place, unbeaten at home and with the Bundesliga's sixth-best attack (2.6 goals per game). Their recent run includes draws against Bayern and Leverkusen, and a convincing 3-0 home win over Schalke. Union Berlin, by contrast, sit 16th with just one win from five and a -12 goal difference, having shipped 11 goals in two away league matches without scoring themselves.
The underlying rates highlight a clear contrast: Augsburg's attack is producing 8.8 shots and 4.2 on target per match over the last five, while Union's defence is conceding 2.8 goals per game in the same span. Union's away attack is blunt (0 goals in two Bundesliga away games), and their shot output (3.2 on target per match) is below league average. Both sides have low clean sheet rates (20%), but Augsburg have scored in every match this season, and both teams to score has landed in all five of their league games.
Given Augsburg's consistent scoring and Union's defensive frailty away from home, the model expects a match with goals, but not a shootout: Augsburg are favoured to edge it 2-1, with a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals. However, Union's recent clean sheets in non-league matches and a history of close H2Hs suggest the draw is more live than odds imply.
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Expected goals · model says 2.05
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
BTTS: Yes
66%
Likely Scores
2-1 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin that most previews miss.
- 1Union Berlin have failed to score in both Bundesliga away matches this season, conceding 11 without reply.
- 2Augsburg's home matches average 3.67 goals, but they've drawn 2 of 3 at the WWK Arena so far.
- 3Six of the last ten H2H meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, despite Augsburg's recent high-scoring trend.
Who do you think wins: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.91
The model assigns a 28% probability to the draw (implied odds 3.57), while the market offers 3.8 (26% implied), creating a 6.4% edge. Augsburg have drawn 2 of 3 at home and Union have a history of tight H2Hs (3 of last 10 drawn).
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.38
Despite high recent over rates, the model's 32% for under 2.5 at odds of 2.38 (implied 42%) gives a 7.6% edge. Union Berlin's attack has failed to score in both away league matches and Augsburg's home games average just 3.67 goals.
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More Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin Prediction
Augsburg's attack continues to produce at a top-six rate, but their defensive metrics are average. Union Berlin's away record is a concern, with 11 goals conceded and none scored in two Bundesliga road games. The statistical profile suggests a goal environment above league average, but Union's lack of away threat tempers the ceiling.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Augsburg average 2.6 goals scored per game this season, with 100% of matches over 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →Union Berlin have conceded 11 goals in two away league games and failed to score in either.
- →Both teams have a 20% clean sheet rate, but Augsburg have scored in every match.
🚩 FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for FC Augsburg and 3.6 for Union Berlin, for an expected total of 8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 41% · Over 10.5: 18%.
How FC Augsburg and Union Berlin Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
FC Augsburglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Union Berlinlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Augsburg's form is steady, with just one defeat in five and a current streak of two draws against strong opposition. Their attack is reliable, averaging 2.4 goals over the last five. Union Berlin have steadied after three consecutive league losses, picking up back-to-back wins (including a friendly), but their Bundesliga away form is a concern: no goals scored and 11 conceded.
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 80% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
What History Says: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin
The last ten H2H meetings are evenly split, but Augsburg have avoided defeat in their last three home games against Union. Draws are common (three in ten), and six of those matches finished under 2.5 goals, suggesting a history of competitive, often cagey encounters.
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
FC Augsburg wins
3
Draws
4
Union Berlin wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin
The model finds value on the draw at 3.8, with a 6.4% edge over the market's implied probability, supported by Augsburg's home draw rate and the H2H trend. There's also value on under 2.5 goals at 2.38, as the model's 32% probability outpaces the market's 26% implied, despite recent high-scoring Augsburg games.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin
- ⚠️Small sample size (5 matches) for both teams' season records may exaggerate early trends.
- ⚠️Union Berlin's away defensive collapse could regress toward league average.
- ⚠️Recent friendlies included in form data may not reflect true competitive strength.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FC Augsburg 2–1 Union BerlinThe model projects a 2-1 win for Augsburg, primarily on the back of Union Berlin's 0 goals scored and 11 conceded in two away league matches. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Union's recent defensive improvement in friendlies carries over, or Augsburg's attack regresses from its current 2.6 goals per game pace.
FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin: Common Questions
Who will win FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Augsburg are favoured with a 50% win probability, while the draw is rated at 28% and Union Berlin at 22%. Augsburg's unbeaten home record and Union's poor away form support the model's edge for the hosts.
Will both teams score in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
The model gives a 61% probability to both teams scoring. Augsburg have scored in every league match, while Union's attack has struggled away, but both teams have kept only one clean sheet in five.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in Augsburg vs Union Berlin?
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 68% probability, reflecting Augsburg's 100% over 2.5 rate this season and Union's defensive issues on the road. However, historical H2H meetings have often been lower scoring.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.