FC Juarez vs Atlas Predictions
Liga MX · Mexico
FC Juarez
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Atlas
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 2.25(+22% edge)
Recommended Bets: FC Juarez vs Atlas
FC Juarez vs Atlas: Match Preview
FC Juarez sit bottom of Liga MX with just three wins from sixteen, but arrive on a modest upswing after back-to-back victories over Queretaro and Atletico San Luis. Despite this, their season-long numbers remain bleak: 13 goals scored, 34 conceded, and only two home wins from eight. Atlas, in contrast, are fifth and boast the league’s second-best away record, having collected 18 points from seven road games (W6 L1), and come off a mixed run with three wins in their last five, though a heavy 1-4 home defeat to Pachuca last time out exposed their defensive frailties.
Statistically, this fixture is shaped by Atlas’s away attacking rate (2.00 goals per game last five) against Juarez’s leaky defence (2.13 conceded per game season average, 12.5% clean sheet rate). Juarez’s attack remains blunt, with just 0.81 goals per game and two blanks in their last five, but they have shown a recent knack for late goals. Atlas’s matches are high-event: their last five average 4.4 total goals, and they have failed to keep a clean sheet in three of those, though they have also kept two shutouts. Corners are likely to be plentiful, with both teams combining for over 10 per match in recent outings.
The model expects Atlas’s superior away scoring rate and Juarez’s defensive issues to tilt the match their way, but both sides’ tendency to concede keeps the draw and BTTS in play. A 1-2 away win is the likeliest outcome, but the distribution is broad: Juarez’s recent form and Atlas’s defensive volatility mean a late equaliser or a high-scoring draw are plausible deviations.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.95
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
FC Juarez vs Atlas Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FC Juarez vs Atlas that most previews miss.
- 1Atlas have scored at least twice in five of their seven away games this season (14 goals total).
- 2Juarez have kept just one clean sheet in their last 13 league matches.
- 3Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have seen both teams score, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Who do you think wins: FC Juarez vs Atlas?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: FC Juarez vs Atlas(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.5
The model assigns a 25% probability to the draw, higher than the 22% implied by the odds (3.6), with both teams showing inconsistency and a combined 8 draws in their last 32 league games.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No@ 2.28
While both teams have seen BTTS in 50-60% of recent matches, Juarez have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and Atlas have 2 clean sheets in that span, making the price for 'no' attractive given a 41% model probability.
Read more ↓
More Liga MX Predictions
The Case For This FC Juarez vs Atlas Prediction
Atlas travel to bottom side FC Juarez with a formidable away record and a clear statistical edge in attack, but both sides have shown defensive vulnerabilities that shape the likely goal environment.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Atlas average 2.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game across their last five, highlighting both attacking output and defensive risk.
- →Juarez have managed just 0.81 goals per game over the season, with a 12.5% clean sheet rate, the lowest in Liga MX.
- →Atlas have won 6 of 7 away matches, scoring 14 and conceding 9, the league’s second-best away record.
🚩 FC Juarez vs Atlas Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for FC Juarez and 5 for Atlas, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How FC Juarez and Atlas Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FC Juarez vs Atlas Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
FC Juarezlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Atlaslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Juarez have shown a brief resurgence with two wins and a draw in their last three, but their season record remains poor, especially at home (2W 1D 5L). Atlas arrive with strong away momentum, winning six of seven on the road, though their last five overall include both a heavy defeat and two high-scoring wins.
FC Juarez vs Atlas — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
What History Says: FC Juarez vs Atlas
Atlas have the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning five of the last ten, including three away victories. Both teams have found the net in seven of those ten meetings, and the last two encounters at Juarez have produced a 3-1 home win and a 2-2 draw.
FC Juarez vs Atlas Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
FC Juarez wins
3
Draws
5
Atlas wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: FC Juarez vs Atlas
The model finds value in the draw at 3.6 (25% model probability vs 22% implied), and in 'BTTS: No' at 2.25 (41% model probability vs 31% implied), reflecting the volatility in both teams’ scoring and defensive records. Atlas’s odds are about right given their away dominance, but the market may be underestimating the chance of a low-scoring or drawn outcome.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: FC Juarez vs Atlas
- ⚠️Juarez's recent upturn (WWD in last three) is a small sample and may not reflect their true level.
- ⚠️Atlas's defensive volatility (30 conceded in 16) means they are vulnerable to lapses, especially late on.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed; late squad news could impact probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FC Juarez 1–2 AtlasAtlas’s superior away record and Juarez’s season-long defensive frailty point to a 2-1 win for the visitors, with the away side’s 6 wins from 7 on the road the single strongest data point. The main risk is Juarez’s recent improvement and Atlas’s erratic defending, which could allow the hosts to snatch a draw or force a higher-scoring contest than the baseline model suggests.
FC Juarez vs Atlas: Common Questions
Who will win FC Juarez vs Atlas?
Atlas are favoured by the model with a 53% win probability, based on their 6 away wins from 7 and Juarez’s 2 home wins from 8. Juarez are given a 22% chance, with the draw at 25%.
Will both teams score in FC Juarez vs Atlas?
The model assigns a 59% probability to both teams scoring, reflecting Atlas’s high-event away matches and Juarez’s defensive struggles, but also notes Juarez have failed to score in 2 of their last 5.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
There is a 62% model probability for over 2.5 goals, with both teams’ last five matches averaging over 3 goals per game and Atlas’s away games especially high-scoring.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FC Juarez vs Atlas: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.