FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov Predictions
Premier League · Russia
FC Rostov
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Krylia Sovetov
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.52(+17% edge)
Recommended Bets: FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov: Match Preview
FC Rostov and Krylia Sovetov approach this fixture neck-and-neck in the Premier League table, separated by a single point and both holding negative goal differences after 14 rounds. Rostov's recent form is strong—unbeaten in five, with a notable 2-2 draw at Zenit and a 3-0 win at Dinamo Makhachkala—while Krylia Sovetov have steadied after a patchy run, winning three of their last five and maintaining an unbeaten away record (2W, 4D).
The statistical matchup is defined by symmetry. Rostov's home record (3W, 1D, 1L, 7:5) is closely matched by Krylia Sovetov's away numbers (2W, 4D, 0L, 10:5). Both sides average just over a goal scored and conceded per game, and each has kept three clean sheets in their last five. Recent matches have trended under 2.5 goals, with both teams showing improved defensive structure—Rostov conceding just three in their last five, Krylia Sovetov only twice away from home in that stretch. Set-piece and discipline data are unremarkable, with both sides averaging around four corners and two cards per game recently.
The model expects a tightly contested, low-scoring game, with neither side likely to seize control for long spells. The most probable result is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the high incidence of draws in both teams' splits and their matching scoring/conceding rates. While either side could edge it with a moment of quality, the weight of evidence points to a stalemate.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS: Yes
49%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov that most previews miss.
- 1Krylia Sovetov are unbeaten in all six away league matches (2W, 4D), conceding just five goals on the road.
- 2FC Rostov have averaged 2.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded across their last five in all competitions, but league-only figures are lower (1.29 for, 1.36 against).
- 3Ten of these sides' combined 28 league matches this season have ended level (36%).
Who do you think wins: FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov?
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Where the Model Sees Value: FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.56
The model assigns a 34% probability to the draw (implied odds 2.94), while the market offers 3.52 (implied probability 28%), yielding a +17% edge. Both teams have drawn 10 of 28 combined league matches, and their season-long scoring/conceding rates are nearly identical.
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The Case For This FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov Prediction
Two closely matched mid-table sides meet with little to separate them in either form or underlying numbers. FC Rostov arrive unbeaten in five (DWWWD), averaging 2.6 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded per game in that stretch, while Krylia Sovetov have lost only once away all season and boast a six-match unbeaten away record (2W, 4D, 0L, 10:5 goal difference). Both sides sit on negative goal difference (-1) after 14 rounds, with Krylia Sovetov just a point behind Rostov. Statistically, the contest is shaped by symmetry: Rostov's home record (3W, 1D, 1L, 7:5) is almost mirrored by Krylia Sovetov's away performance (2W, 4D, 0L, 10:5). Neither side has a clear attacking edge—Rostov average 1.29 goals for and 1.36 against per game, Krylia Sovetov 1.36 for and 1.43 against. Both have kept three clean sheets in their last five, and both have failed to score only once in that span. The goal environment trends slightly under: 57% of Rostov's and 50% of Krylia Sovetov's matches have gone over 2.5, but recent defensive improvement and a combined 6/10 away/home matches under 2.5 suggest restraint. The model expects a balanced, low-scoring affair, with neither side likely to dominate periods or territory. The likeliest outcome is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the near-identical rates and the high draw frequency in both teams' away/home splits. The main risk is a sudden attacking surge from either side, but the weight of evidence points to parity.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Krylia Sovetov are unbeaten away in the league (2W, 4D, 0L, 10:5 goal difference)
Defence
- →Rostov's last five league matches: 3W, 2D, 0L, with 13 goals scored and 3 conceded
Match Context
- →Both teams have drawn 10 of 28 combined league matches this season
🚩 FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for FC Rostov and 4.9 for Krylia Sovetov, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 45%.
How FC Rostov and Krylia Sovetov Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
FC Rostovlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Krylia Sovetovlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
FC Rostov are unbeaten in their last five matches, posting three wins and two draws while conceding only three goals. Krylia Sovetov have won three of their last five, including two away from home, and have kept three clean sheets in that span. Both sides have stabilised after mixed early-season form, converging on similar points and goal differences.
FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov
The last ten meetings have produced no draws, with FC Rostov winning six and Krylia Sovetov four. Notably, the away side has won the last two encounters, including a 4-1 Krylia Sovetov victory in Rostov. Scorelines have varied, but recent trends suggest the gap between these sides has narrowed.
FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
FC Rostov wins
0
Draws
4
Krylia Sovetov wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov
The strongest value edge is on the draw at odds of 3.52, with the model's 34% probability implying a +17% edge over the market. Other markets, such as under 2.5 goals and BTTS, are closely aligned with the odds, offering little value. The draw price stands out given both teams' high draw rates and matching underlying metrics.
Odds from Marathonbet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov
- ⚠️Recent cup matches slightly inflate Rostov's attacking averages; league rates are lower
- ⚠️Both sides have shown streaky form earlier in the season, raising variance risk
- ⚠️No significant injuries, but lineups are unconfirmed at time of prediction
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FC Rostov 1–1 Krylia SovetovThe model calls a 1-1 draw, anchored by the near-identical home/away records and season-long scoring rates for both teams. The single strongest data point is Krylia Sovetov's unbeaten away run (2W, 4D, 0L, 10:5), which matches up with Rostov's solid but unspectacular home form. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if either side's recent attacking uptick continues and breaks the deadlock early, but the statistical base case remains a share of the points.
FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov: Common Questions
Who will win FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov?
The model gives FC Rostov a 38% chance of victory, Krylia Sovetov a 28% chance, and a draw 34%. Both teams have nearly identical season records and underlying rates, so a stalemate is the likeliest outcome.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov?
There's a 51% probability of both teams scoring, with each side averaging over a goal per game and both keeping three clean sheets in their last five. The data points to a balanced contest with a slight lean toward BTTS.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet in FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov?
The model estimates a 54% probability for under 2.5 goals, compared to 46% for over. Both teams have improved defensively of late, and their recent home/away splits suggest a lower-scoring environment.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FC Rostov vs Krylia Sovetov: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.