Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Predictions
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Feyenoord
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
AZ Alkmaar
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 3.5(+29% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Late Feyenoord Response Cancels Out Parrott’s Early Strike in De Kuip Draw
Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar played out a compelling 1-1 draw at De Kuip, with both sides showing flashes of quality but ultimately unable to find a decisive winner. AZ struck first, stunning the home crowd with a goal in the very first minute courtesy of Troy Parrott, setting the tone for a lively encounter. Feyenoord responded with resilience, gradually growing into the match and equalizing through Ayase Ueda in the 57th minute. AZ dominated possession with 60% and registered 13 shots to Feyenoord’s 10, but the hosts were more clinical, hitting the target five times. Both teams had periods of ascendancy, but missed opportunities and solid defensive work ensured the points were shared. The result reflects the fine margins in a game where tactical discipline and timely interventions from key players were on display.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
1' — Goal
Troy Parrott scores for AZ Alkmaar, giving the visitors a dream start.
57' — Goal
Ayase Ueda levels for Feyenoord with a well-taken finish.
65' — Yellow Card
Feyenoord pick up a yellow card as the match heats up in midfield.
Feyenoord
Feyenoord showed real character after conceding almost immediately, gradually asserting themselves despite having just 40% possession. Their attacking intent was evident with 7 corners and 5 shots on target, and their equalizer early in the second half galvanized the team and the crowd. Defensively, they were organized, limiting AZ to just three shots on target from 13 attempts. A yellow card highlighted their combative edge, but Feyenoord’s midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt AZ’s rhythm, and the front four pressed effectively, especially after the break.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar started the match in perfect fashion, with Troy Parrott’s opener inside the first minute. They controlled possession (60%) and dictated the tempo for extended stretches, but a lack of cutting edge in the final third saw them convert just one of their 13 shots. The midfield duo of Peer Koopmeiners and Jordy Clasie orchestrated play, but AZ could not capitalize on their early dominance. Defensively, they were largely solid, conceding only five shots on target, and avoided disciplinary trouble. However, their inability to kill the game off after the early breakthrough proved costly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both sides lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but AZ’s early pressing and quick transitions caught Feyenoord off guard, leading to the opening goal. As the match wore on, Feyenoord’s double pivot of Thijs Kraaijeveld and Oussama Targhalline began to disrupt AZ’s rhythm, allowing the hosts to press higher and force turnovers. Feyenoord used width effectively, winning seven corners, while AZ’s patient build-up often stalled in the final third due to Feyenoord’s compact defensive shape. Neither coach made drastic tactical changes, but Feyenoord’s increased aggression after halftime shifted the momentum. Set pieces offered Feyenoord a route back into the game, while AZ’s control of possession was not matched by incisiveness in attack.
Turning Point
Ayase Ueda’s equalizer in the 57th minute shifted the momentum and ensured Feyenoord avoided defeat after a poor start.
Man of the Match
Ayase Ueda
His equalizer capped a spirited Feyenoord fightback and he led the line with determination throughout.
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Expected goals · model says 1.30
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 3.5
Both teams have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches, and both average over 1.2 goals scored per game recently. The model probability (58%) is far above the implied odds (29%), making this a strong value play.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.7
Both sides have drawn 3 of their last 5 and are evenly matched in recent form. The model sees a 38% chance of a draw versus a 27% implied probability, offering a solid edge.
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More Eredivisie Predictions
The Case For This Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction
This is a closely matched fixture between Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar, with both teams showing solid but unspectacular recent form. Feyenoord's home record is strong, but AZ have proven resilient on the road and come into this with a run of draws. Expect a tactical battle with both teams likely to score, but neither able to fully assert dominance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have 4 BTTS results in their last 5 matches.
Attack
- →AZ Alkmaar have drawn 3 straight and average 2 goals scored per game in their last 5.
Defence
- →Both teams have low clean sheet percentages (27.27%) and high over 2.5 goal rates (60%+).
Injuries & Team News
- →Feyenoord have a strong home record (11W, 3D, 3L), but are missing several players through injury.
Match Context
- →Head-to-head history heavily favors Feyenoord at home, but the last two meetings ended in draws.
🚩 Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Feyenoord and 4.5 for AZ Alkmaar, for an expected total of 9.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 61% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Feyenoordlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
AZ Alkmaarlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Feyenoord come into this match with a solid run (DWWDD), showing resilience but also a tendency to drop points, including a recent 1-1 home draw with AZ. AZ Alkmaar are on a three-game draw streak (DDDWD), scoring consistently but struggling to turn performances into wins. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring and competitive games recently.
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar
Historically, Feyenoord have been strong at home against AZ, winning most of their recent Eredivisie encounters in Rotterdam. However, the last two matches between these sides have ended level, with both teams scoring, suggesting a narrowing gap and a trend towards competitive, open contests.
Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
Feyenoord wins
2
Draws
1
AZ Alkmaar wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar
The biggest value edge is on 'Both Teams to Score – Yes', where the model's probability is nearly double the implied odds. The draw also presents value, with both teams' recent form and H2H trends supporting a high likelihood of a stalemate. Backing these markets offers positive expected value based on the data.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar
- ⚠️Feyenoord's long injury list could impact their defensive solidity and squad depth.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown some inconsistency in results, increasing draw likelihood.
- ⚠️Market odds may shift closer to kickoff, affecting value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.