NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen Predictions
Eredivisie · Netherlands
NEC Nijmegen
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Groningen
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Groningen Win
@ 3.1(+33% edge)
Recommended Bets: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: Match Preview
NEC Nijmegen enter this home fixture winless in their last five competitive matches, including three consecutive Eredivisie draws and a heavy Europa League defeat at Juventus. Their home record is a concern, with no wins in four league games at Goffertstadion (0W 2D 2L), while Groningen arrive in sixth place after back-to-back wins, scoring eight goals in their last two outings. With Groningen holding a five-point advantage in the table and trending upwards, the pressure is on NEC to reverse their stalling campaign.
Statistical indicators point to an open contest: NEC's home matches average 3.25 goals, and Groningen's away fixtures 4.75, with both teams' over 2.5 goal rates above 75%. Groningen's attack is the sharper unit, averaging 2.5 goals per game (11 in four away), and their shot volume (15.6 per last five) dwarfs NEC's output. NEC, meanwhile, have failed to keep a clean sheet all season and concede an average of 2.0 per home game. Both sides are most vulnerable before half-time, and Groningen have scored seven first-half goals in their last five matches, suggesting early action.
The model expects Groningen's attacking efficiency to tell, especially given NEC's defensive frailties and lack of home cutting edge. While NEC's head-to-head record is strong, their current trajectory and underlying rates make a 2-1 away win the likeliest outcome, with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score also prominent in the distribution.
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Expected goals · model says 1.55
Expected goals · model says 1.90
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
BTTS: Yes
67%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen that most previews miss.
- 1Groningen's away matches average 4.75 total goals per game this season (11 for, 8 against in 4).
- 2NEC have not kept a single clean sheet in any of their eight league matches so far.
- 3Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have seen at least three goals, with only one draw in that span.
Who do you think wins: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Groningen Win@ 3.11
Groningen average 2.5 goals per game this season, have won two of four away, and NEC have failed to win at home (0W 2D 2L, 2.0 goals conceded per home game). The model's 43% away win probability far exceeds the 32% implied by the odds.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.5
Both teams have high over 2.5 rates (NEC 75%, Groningen 87.5%), and their combined season scoring/conceding rates point to a high goal environment.
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More Eredivisie Predictions
The Case For This NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen Prediction
This fixture sets up as a clash between NEC Nijmegen's stalling home form and Groningen's upward momentum, with the underlying numbers tilting the balance towards the visitors. NEC have yet to win at Goffertstadion this Eredivisie campaign, while Groningen arrive with two wins in their last two and the division's third-best attack by goals per game. Statistically, this is a high-scoring matchup: NEC's home matches average 3.25 goals, and Groningen's away games 4.75. Groningen's attack (2.5 goals per game, 4.8 shots on target per last five) faces an NEC defence with zero clean sheets and 1.75 goals conceded per match. Both sides are prone to first-half action, with Groningen netting seven first-half goals in their last five and NEC conceding early in three straight. Corners and cards rates are both above league average, suggesting set-piece and discipline events could influence the outcome. The model projects Groningen's attacking output to edge a contest where both teams are likely to score, but NEC's lack of home cutting edge (just five goals in four home games) makes them underdogs. The likeliest scenario is Groningen exploiting NEC's defensive frailty, with a 2-1 away win the modal outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Groningen average 2.5 goals scored per game and have scored 11 in 4 away matches.
- →Both teams' matches are high-scoring: NEC over 2.5 goals in 75% of games, Groningen in 87.5%.
Defence
- →NEC have failed to win in four home league matches this season (0W 2D 2L, 5 scored, 8 conceded).
🚩 NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for NEC Nijmegen and 4.2 for Groningen, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How NEC Nijmegen and Groningen Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
NEC Nijmegenlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Groningenlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
NEC Nijmegen are winless in their last five matches in all competitions, with three straight Eredivisie draws and no home league wins this season. Groningen, by contrast, have won their last two, scoring eight goals, and have lost just once in their last five, signalling stronger momentum.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 87.5% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
What History Says: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen
NEC have dominated recent head-to-heads, winning six of the last ten, including a 6-0 home win in 2024. Groningen did win the most recent meeting 2-1, and draws are rare in this fixture, with only one in the last ten. High-scoring games are common, with seven of the last ten producing at least three goals.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
NEC Nijmegen wins
1
Draws
3
Groningen wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen
The away win is the standout value, with the model's 43% probability translating to a +33% edge over the 3.10 odds offered. Over 2.5 goals is also marginal value, but the price is tight given the high base rates. There is no value in the BTTS 'no' market, as the model and odds are closely aligned.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen
- ⚠️NEC's Europa League involvement could introduce rotation or fatigue not visible in current data.
- ⚠️Groningen's recent away form includes one heavy defeat (1-5 at PSV), introducing variance.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not available at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
NEC Nijmegen 1–2 GroningenThe model projects a 2-1 win for Groningen, driven by their 2.5 goals per game average and NEC's ongoing defensive issues (zero clean sheets, 1.75 conceded per match). The main risk is NEC rediscovering their home scoring touch or Groningen's attack regressing after two prolific outings, but the underlying rates and away value are clear.
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: Common Questions
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
The model gives Groningen a 43% chance of winning, compared to 28% for NEC and 29% for the draw. Groningen's superior attack and NEC's poor home form tilt the probabilities in the visitors' favour.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in NEC vs Groningen?
There's a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals, as both teams' matches are high-scoring (NEC 75%, Groningen 87.5% over 2.5 this season) and their combined average is over 3.5 goals per game.
Are both teams likely to score in this match?
Yes, both teams to score is rated at 64% probability. NEC have scored in six of eight league games, while Groningen have scored in every away match and neither side is strong defensively.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.