Willem II vs Cambuur Predictions
Eredivisie · Netherlands
Willem II
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Cambuur
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Cambuur Win
@ 2.6(+22% edge)
Recommended Bets: Willem II vs Cambuur
Willem II vs Cambuur: Match Preview
Willem II enter this fixture in a deep rut, anchored to the bottom of the table with just two points from eight matches and a form string of LLLDL. Their last three games have all ended in defeat, and the side has managed just one goal in that stretch while conceding seven. The pressure is mounting in Tilburg, with the home crowd yet to see a victory this campaign.
Cambuur, meanwhile, are riding a wave of momentum after collecting eight points from their last five, including a pair of clean sheets and a recent 1-0 win away at PEC Zwolle. Their WDWDL form string is underpinned by improved defensive solidity and a more balanced attack, averaging 1.6 goals for and only 1.4 against over the last five. Cambuur’s away record this season (1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss) is steady, and their ability to grind out results on the road has been a key factor in their recent resurgence.
The model expects Cambuur’s momentum to carry them through against a Willem II side lacking confidence and defensive cohesion. With Willem II conceding 2.6 goals per game in their last five and Cambuur’s attack finding form, the visitors are favoured to edge this contest. However, with five draws in the last ten head-to-heads and Willem II’s underlying shot numbers suggesting some potential for improvement, a tight contest is likely—though Cambuur’s current trajectory gives them the edge.
How Willem II and Cambuur Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Willem II vs Cambuur Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Willem IIlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cambuurlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Willem II are mired in a slump, winless in their last five and conceding heavily, with a current streak of three consecutive defeats. Cambuur, on the other hand, are on an upward curve, unbeaten in four and having kept two clean sheets in their last three, signalling a side gaining confidence and balance.
Willem II vs Cambuur — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Willem II vs Cambuur Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Willem II vs Cambuur that most previews miss.
- 1Willem II have conceded in every match this season and have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five.
- 2Cambuur have scored in all of their last five matches and have failed to score just once all season.
- 3Five of the last ten meetings between these sides have ended level, including three 1-1 draws.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.90
Over 2.5 Goals
63%
BTTS: Yes
63%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Willem II vs Cambuur?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Willem II vs Cambuur Prediction
Willem II are in freefall, rooted to the foot of the Eredivisie after eight games without a win and a run of three straight defeats. Cambuur, by contrast, are trending upward, unbeaten in four and fresh from a gritty 1-0 away win at PEC Zwolle. The form lines could hardly be more divergent, and it is momentum, not just table position, that shapes the outlook here.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Willem II have lost 4 of their last 5 and conceded 13 in that run.
- →Cambuur are unbeaten in four and have kept two clean sheets in their last three.
- →Willem II have failed to win any of their opening eight matches, scoring only 7 and conceding 23.
Where the Model Sees Value: Willem II vs Cambuur(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Cambuur Win@ 2.61
Cambuur arrive with a WDWDL form string and have taken 8 points from their last 5, while Willem II have lost 4 of 5 and are winless all season. Cambuur's momentum, including two clean sheets and a 1-0 away win last time out, contrasts sharply with Willem II's defensive frailty (2.6 conceded per game in last 5). The model gives Cambuur a 47% win probability versus 38.5% implied by the odds.
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BTTS: No@ 2.48
Willem II have failed to score in 2 of their last 5, and Cambuur have kept two clean sheets in that span. With Willem II averaging just 0.6 goals for in their last 5 and Cambuur's away defence improving, the model sees value in BTTS 'no' at these odds.
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More Eredivisie Predictions
🚩 Willem II vs Cambuur Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Willem II and 4.2 for Cambuur, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 36%.
What History Says: Willem II vs Cambuur
The head-to-head record is remarkably even, with five draws in the last ten meetings and only two Willem II wins. Cambuur have a solid recent record in Tilburg, including a 1-0 victory in their last visit, and the fixture often produces tight, low-scoring encounters.
Willem II vs Cambuur Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Willem II wins
5
Draws
3
Cambuur wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Willem II vs Cambuur
The biggest value edge lies with Cambuur to win at 2.6, as the model rates their chances at 47%—well above the 38.5% implied by the odds. There is also a smaller edge on 'BTTS no' at 2.5, reflecting Willem II’s scoring struggles and Cambuur’s recent defensive improvement.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Willem II vs Cambuur
- ⚠️Willem II's home shot and possession numbers are not disastrous, suggesting some underperformance.
- ⚠️Cambuur's away record is only modest (1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss), so their momentum is recent rather than sustained.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Willem II 1–2 CambuurCambuur’s recent momentum, highlighted by two wins and two clean sheets in their last four, makes them clear favourites against a Willem II side in crisis and winless in eight. The single strongest data point is Willem II’s run of three straight losses and 2.6 goals conceded per game in their last five. The main risk is that Willem II’s underlying shot numbers (11.6 per game in last five) hint at some attacking improvement, and the head-to-head record is draw-heavy, so a stalemate cannot be ruled out.
Willem II vs Cambuur: Common Questions
Who will win Willem II vs Cambuur?
Cambuur are favoured by the model with a 47% win probability, compared to just 22% for Willem II and 31% for the draw. Cambuur’s recent form (WDWDL) and Willem II’s ongoing struggles (LLLDL) underpin this edge.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Cambuur?
The model gives a 56% probability for both teams to score, with Willem II averaging just 0.6 goals for in their last five and Cambuur keeping two recent clean sheets. There is also value in 'BTTS no' at the current odds.
Can Willem II end their winless run?
Based on their current form—three straight losses, no wins in eight, and 2.6 goals conceded per game in the last five—the model sees only a 22% chance of a Willem II victory. Their shot numbers suggest some hope, but momentum is firmly against them.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Willem II vs Cambuur: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.