Figueirense vs Ferroviária Predictions
Serie C · Brazil
Figueirense
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 0 - 1
Ferroviária
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.5/10Late Drama as Figueirense Salvage Draw Against 10-Man Ferroviária
Figueirense staged a dramatic late comeback to snatch a 2-2 draw against Ferroviária in a pulsating Serie C encounter. The visitors looked set for all three points after taking a 2-0 lead, but a late red card and a flurry of yellow cards saw their composure slip, allowing Figueirense to strike twice in the dying minutes. Ferroviária opened the scoring in the 20th minute and doubled their advantage with just over ten minutes to play. However, a red card for Ferroviária and mounting disciplinary issues handed the initiative to the hosts, who capitalized with goals in the 89th and 90th minutes to secure a share of the spoils. The match was a tale of two halves, with Ferroviária's early control ultimately undone by late defensive lapses and indiscipline.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
2 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
20' — Goal
Ferroviária take the lead with a well-taken goal.
79' — Goal
Ferroviária double their advantage, seemingly sealing the win.
Late' — Red Card
Ferroviária reduced to 10 men after a sending off, shifting the momentum.
89' — Goal
Figueirense pull one back, setting up a tense finale.
90' — Goal
Figueirense complete the comeback with a dramatic equalizer.
Figueirense
Figueirense struggled to break down Ferroviária's defense for much of the match, falling behind early and then again in the second half. However, their resilience shone through in the final minutes as they mounted a spirited comeback against a tiring and undermanned opponent. The hosts showed grit and determination, taking full advantage of Ferroviária's late red card and loss of discipline to snatch a dramatic draw. Despite being unable to control the match for large stretches, Figueirense's late surge demonstrated their fighting spirit and ability to exploit opportunities under pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Ferroviária
Ferroviária looked in control for much of the contest, taking a deserved lead in the 20th minute and doubling it late on. Their disciplined defensive display and clinical finishing seemed to have secured victory, but a rash red card and a flurry of yellow cards in the closing stages proved costly. The visitors' inability to maintain composure under pressure allowed Figueirense back into the game, ultimately costing them two valuable points. Despite their strong start and effective game management for most of the match, Ferroviária's late collapse highlighted the dangers of indiscipline and lapses in concentration.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With no confirmed lineups or formations available, both teams appeared to approach the match with contrasting philosophies. Ferroviária's early lead and defensive solidity suggested a compact, counter-attacking setup, which worked effectively until their discipline faltered late on. Figueirense, meanwhile, struggled to break down the visitors for much of the game, but threw caution to the wind in the final minutes, pressing high and committing numbers forward after Ferroviária went down to ten men. The late red card forced Ferroviária to retreat deeper, inviting pressure and ultimately succumbing to Figueirense's relentless late surge. Set pieces and width became more prominent as the hosts sought to exploit their numerical advantage, leading to the dramatic late goals.
Turning Point
The red card to Ferroviária in the closing stages, which handed Figueirense the momentum to mount their comeback.
Man of the Match
Unknown (Figueirense late goalscorer)
Scored the crucial equalizer in stoppage time to complete a dramatic comeback.
Figueirense vs Ferroviária: Match Preview
Figueirense approach this match in 13th place, with a negative goal difference and just two wins from seven home matches. Their recent form is steady but unspectacular—one win, three draws, and a loss in the last five—highlighting a team that struggles to impose itself offensively. Ferroviária, by contrast, sit 8th and have a marginally better record both home and away, picking up 23 points from 15 games and conceding just 12 times all season.
The statistical matchup is defined by low attacking output and above-average defensive solidity. Figueirense have managed only 0.87 goals per game (0.86 at home), while Ferroviária's away defence allows exactly 1 goal per match. Ferroviária themselves are not prolific (1.0 goals per game overall, 1.14 away), but their clean sheet rate (46.7%) and under 2.5 goals percentage (73%) point to a disciplined, risk-averse approach. Both sides have failed to score in at least two of their last five, and neither has shown a tendency for high-scoring first halves.
Given these rates, the model projects a low-goal environment with a high probability of a draw or a narrow Ferroviária win. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1, with 0-0 and 1-1 also plausible. Without a clear attacking edge for either side and both teams' recent matches trending under 2.5 goals, the contest is expected to be decided by a single goal or less.
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Expected goals · model says 0.70
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
23%
BTTS: Yes
31%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Figueirense vs Ferroviária Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Figueirense vs Ferroviária that most previews miss.
- 1Ferroviária's matches have finished under 2.5 goals in 11 of 15 games this season (73%), the lowest in the top half.
- 2Figueirense have scored more than once in just 2 of 15 matches this campaign.
- 3Both teams have failed to score in at least 2 of their last 5 matches, with Figueirense blanking twice and Ferroviária three times.
Who do you think wins: Figueirense vs Ferroviária?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Figueirense vs Ferroviária(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
The draw probability is highest at 0.38, reflecting both teams' strong defensive records and low season scoring rates (Figueirense 0.87, Ferroviária 1.0 goals per game), with 9 draws combined in their last 15 matches.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both clubs average under 1 goal conceded per game (Figueirense 1.2, Ferroviária 0.8) and under 1 goal scored, with under 2.5 goals landing in 73% of Ferroviária's and 53% of Figueirense's matches.
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BTTS: No
Only 2 of Figueirense's last 5 and 1 of Ferroviária's last 5 have seen both teams score, and both have failed to score in at least 2 of their last 5 matches.
Read more ↓
More Serie C Predictions
The Case For This Figueirense vs Ferroviária Prediction
This fixture profiles as a low-scoring, closely contested affair between two sides whose season-long scoring rates and recent form point to a defensive battle. Figueirense's home record is poor (6 scored, 10 conceded in 7), while Ferroviária's away output is modest but more balanced (8 scored, 7 conceded in 7). The underlying rates suggest the likeliest outcome is a narrow win for the visitors or a draw, with goals at a premium.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Figueirense average just 0.87 goals scored per match this season, with only 6 goals in 7 home games.
Defence
- →Ferroviária have the stronger defence (0.8 goals conceded per match, 46.7% clean sheet rate), and have lost just 2 of 7 away.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen under 2.5 goals in the majority of their matches (Ferroviária 73%, Figueirense 53%).
How Figueirense and Ferroviária Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Figueirense vs Ferroviária Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Figueirenselast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ferroviárialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Figueirense have been difficult to beat recently, drawing three of their last five and conceding just four goals in that span, but their attack has produced only three goals across those matches. Ferroviária's form is patchier but includes a recent 3-1 away win at Ituano and two clean sheets in their last five. Both sides are trending towards draws and low-scoring outcomes.
Figueirense vs Ferroviária — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +46.67% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Figueirense vs Ferroviária
These teams have met just once before, with Ferroviária winning 1-0 away. That result aligns with the current season's data, where both teams are more likely to be involved in low-scoring, tightly contested matches.
Figueirense vs Ferroviária Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Figueirense wins
0
Draws
1
Ferroviária wins
Things to Watch: Figueirense vs Ferroviária
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or set-piece data for either team; model relies on goals and results rates.
- ⚠️Only one previous head-to-head, so no robust H2H trends.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Figueirense 0–1 FerroviáriaThe data points to a tight, low-scoring contest with Ferroviária's defensive record (0.8 goals conceded per game, 46.7% clean sheets) the standout metric. The model's most likely outcome is a 0-1 away win, but with both teams struggling for attacking consistency, a goalless draw is also a strong possibility. The main risk is a defensive lapse early on, which could force the game open and push it over the expected goal line.
Figueirense vs Ferroviária: Common Questions
Who will win Figueirense vs Ferroviária?
The model gives Ferroviária a 39% chance of victory, Figueirense 23%, and the draw 38%. Both teams have low scoring rates and strong defensive records, so a draw or narrow away win is most likely.
Will both teams score in Figueirense vs Ferroviária?
Both teams to score is rated at just 27%, reflecting that both sides have failed to score in at least two of their last five matches and average under one goal scored per game.
How likely is under 2.5 goals in this match?
Under 2.5 goals is highly probable at 74%, with both teams trending towards low-scoring matches—Ferroviária have seen under 2.5 in 73% of their games, Figueirense in 53%.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Figueirense vs Ferroviária: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.