Fiji vs Vanuatu Prediction
Vanuatu Favoured Over Fiji in Tight Oceania Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Fiji
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Vanuatu
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Fiji vs Vanuatu Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Fiji vs Vanuatu?
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The Case For This Fiji vs Vanuatu Prediction
Fiji and Vanuatu meet once again in a friendly, with the model giving Vanuatu a clear edge despite near-identical Elo ratings (Fiji 1108, Vanuatu 1114). The analytics see Vanuatu with a 52.7% chance of victory, compared to just 23.1% for Fiji, reflecting both recent form and historical head-to-head results. The expected goals line, after all adjustments, stands at 1.03 for Fiji and 1.68 for Vanuatu, hinting at a likely away win in a fixture that has often been competitive. Both sides lack detailed player-level data, so the model leans heavily on team-level metrics and recent momentum. Fiji's recent struggles in attack (0.865 attack momentum) contrast with Vanuatu's hot scoring form (1.135 attack momentum), and this swing is decisive in shifting the expected goal output. The most probable scoreline is 0-1 to Vanuatu, with a 11.2% likelihood, but a 1-1 draw (11.5%) and a 1-2 away win (9.7%) are also prominent in the Poisson-based projections.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Final expected goals: Fiji 1.03 vs Vanuatu 1.68 after momentum adjustments
- →Head-to-head: Vanuatu have won 5 of the last 9 meetings, Fiji just 1
Attack
- →Vanuatu's recent form: 11 points from last 5 matches, attack momentum at 1.135
- →Fiji's attack momentum is low at 0.865, with just 2 form points from last 5
Match Context
- →Model win probabilities: Vanuatu 52.7%, Draw 24.2%, Fiji 23.1%
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.29 · 1.31
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
1.03 · 1.68
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Fiji's cold attack trims their goals ×0.86; Fiji's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.14; Vanuatu attacking form lifts their goals ×1.14.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Fiji goals, columns = Vanuatu goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.5%
0-1
11.2%
1-2
9.7%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Fiji vs Vanuatu that most previews miss.
- 1Fiji have failed to win any of their last five matches, averaging just 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game.
- 2Vanuatu have not failed to score in any of their last five, averaging 1.8 goals per match and conceding only 1.0.
- 3The most likely scoreline according to the model is 1-1 (11.5%), but Vanuatu away wins (0-1 at 11.2%, 1-2 at 9.7%) are also prominent.
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with a nearly level Elo baseline: Fiji at 1108 and Vanuatu at 1114, translating to a negligible Elo rating difference of -6 and an expected score split of 0.491 vs 0.509. With no granular player or shot data available, both sides are assigned neutral xG attack and defensive suppression factors, so the initial expected goals are balanced at 1.3 each. Momentum, however, makes a significant impact. Fiji's attack is in a slump, with a momentum multiplier of 0.865, while Vanuatu's attack is running hot at 1.135. These adjustments pull Fiji's final expected goals down to 1.03 and boost Vanuatu's to 1.68. Feeding these into a Poisson model, the most likely outcomes are a 0-1 or 1-1 scoreline, with Vanuatu's win probability rising to 52.7% — a decisive edge in a fixture that started out even on paper.
More Friendlies Predictions
Fiji vs Vanuatu Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Fijilast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Vanuatulast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fiji are in poor form, with just 2 points from their last 5 matches, scoring only 0.8 goals per game while conceding 1.8. Vanuatu, by contrast, are unbeaten in their last 5, picking up 11 points and averaging 1.8 goals scored. Both sides have limited available data beyond basic results, so recent momentum plays a key role in the model's assessment.
Fiji vs Vanuatu — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
What History Says: Fiji vs Vanuatu
Vanuatu have a strong recent record against Fiji, winning 5 of their last 9 meetings, including three of the last four. Fiji's only win in this stretch came in 2023, and the most recent clash was a 2-2 draw in June 2026. The fixture has produced a mix of close games and occasional high-scoring affairs.
Fiji vs Vanuatu Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
1
Fiji wins
3
Draws
5
Vanuatu wins
Things to Watch: Fiji vs Vanuatu
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available at the time of writing, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies often feature experimental line-ups and unpredictable motivation levels.
- ⚠️Player-level and shot data are sparse for both teams, increasing model uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Fiji 0–1 VanuatuThe model predicts a 0-1 win for Vanuatu, driven mainly by their superior recent form and a final expected goals margin of 1.68 to 1.03. While the Elo ratings are almost identical, Vanuatu's attacking momentum and historical head-to-head dominance tip the scales. The biggest risk to this verdict is the high draw probability (24.2%) and the inherent volatility of low-scoring matches, especially with limited data on both squads.
Fiji vs Vanuatu: Common Questions
Who will win Fiji vs Vanuatu?
The model gives Vanuatu a 52.7% chance of winning, compared to 23.1% for Fiji and 24.2% for a draw. Vanuatu's recent form and attacking momentum make them clear favourites.
What are the most likely scorelines for Fiji vs Vanuatu?
The three most probable outcomes are 1-1 (11.5%), 0-1 to Vanuatu (11.2%), and 1-2 to Vanuatu (9.7%), reflecting a tight contest with a slight edge for the away side.
How have Fiji and Vanuatu performed against each other recently?
Vanuatu have dominated the head-to-head, winning 5 of the last 9 meetings, with Fiji winning just once and three draws. The last encounter ended 2-2 in June 2026.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Fiji vs Vanuatu: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 18 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.