FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 2
Panevėžys
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Panevėžys Win
Match Result
5.5/10Panevėžys Punish Zalgiris with Late Double in Friendly Triumph
Panevėžys secured a deserved 2-0 victory over FK Zalgiris Vilnius in this club friendly, striking twice in the second half to underline their growing confidence ahead of the new season. After a cagey opening hour, Panevėžys broke the deadlock in the 62nd minute before sealing the win with a clinical second goal just two minutes from time. Neither side could find a breakthrough in a first half that lacked clear chances and attacking fluency, but Panevėžys grew into the contest after the interval. Their persistence paid off with two well-taken goals, while Zalgiris struggled to respond and ultimately failed to trouble the visitors’ defence. With no cards issued and a fair spirit throughout, Panevėžys’ sharper edge in front of goal proved decisive.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
62' — Goal
Panevėžys break the deadlock with a well-taken goal, seizing control of the match.
88' — Goal
Panevėžys double their lead late on, ensuring victory in the closing stages.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
Zalgiris Vilnius failed to impose themselves on the match, lacking the attacking spark needed to break down a disciplined Panevėžys side. Despite holding firm for over an hour, the hosts were undone by two second-half goals and struggled to mount any meaningful response. With little information on individual performances or tactical changes, Zalgiris will be disappointed with their inability to create chances or test the opposition goalkeeper, ultimately succumbing to a deserved defeat.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Panevėžys
Panevėžys delivered a composed and disciplined performance, growing in confidence as the match wore on. Their patience was rewarded with two well-timed goals in the second half, demonstrating clinical finishing and a strong collective effort. With no cards conceded and a clean sheet to their name, Panevėžys will be pleased with their control and ability to capitalize on key moments, making a strong statement in this friendly encounter.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With no detailed lineup or formation data available, both sides appeared to approach the match with a focus on defensive solidity in the first half, resulting in few clear chances. Panevėžys adjusted their approach after the break, increasing their attacking intent and pressing higher up the pitch, which ultimately led to their two second-half goals. Zalgiris, meanwhile, struggled to adapt after falling behind, lacking the tactical flexibility or attacking options to mount a comeback. Panevėžys' ability to remain patient and capitalize on their opportunities speaks to a well-drilled side, while Zalgiris' lack of response after conceding highlights an area for improvement in both tactics and mentality.
Turning Point
Panevėžys’ opening goal in the 62nd minute shifted the momentum decisively, forcing Zalgiris out of their shell and setting the stage for the visitors to control the remainder of the match.
Man of the Match
Panevėžys goalscorer (62')
Broke the deadlock and set his team on course for victory with a crucial second-half goal.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys: Match Preview
Panevėžys come into this friendly in formidable form, unbeaten in their last seven matches across all competitions and boasting a goal difference of +10 over that period. Their defensive solidity stands out, with three clean sheets in their last five and only four goals conceded all season, while Zalgiris Vilnius have stumbled, losing two of their last five and failing to score in three of those. With both teams having recent competitive fixtures, fitness should be less of a concern, but Zalgiris Vilnius will be looking to arrest a current losing streak after a heavy 0-3 defeat last time out.
The statistical matchup is defined by Panevėžys' defensive strength against a Zalgiris Vilnius attack that has faltered of late. Panevėžys average 2.0 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded per game in their last five, while Zalgiris Vilnius have managed only 0.8 goals per match over the same stretch. Notably, Zalgiris Vilnius matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 80% of their season games, but much of their scoring came earlier in the campaign. The head-to-head record is competitive, with Panevėžys edging it 5-4 over the last ten, and both sides have shown the ability to score multiple goals in these encounters.
The model expects Panevėžys' recent defensive discipline and attacking efficiency to be the decisive factors. With Zalgiris Vilnius struggling for goals and Panevėžys riding a strong run, the most likely scenario is an away win, but the probability of both teams scoring remains close to even given the historical H2H goal rates. A 2-1 win for Panevėžys is the likeliest outcome, with Zalgiris Vilnius' home advantage and historical resilience keeping the margin tight.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys that most previews miss.
- 1Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have seen at least three goals scored.
- 2Panevėžys have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, conceding just two goals in that span.
- 3Zalgiris Vilnius have failed to score in three of their last five, but their season over 2.5 goals rate remains high at 80%.
Who do you think wins: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Panevėžys Win
Panevėžys have won 6 of their last 7 across all competitions and are conceding just 0.57 goals per game this season, while Zalgiris Vilnius have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and average only 0.8 goals per game over that stretch.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Zalgiris Vilnius matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 80% of their season fixtures, and Panevėžys have scored 2+ in 4 of their last 5, suggesting a moderate lean to goals despite Panevėžys' defensive record.
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The Case For This FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys Prediction
Statistically, Panevėžys arrive with the superior all-round numbers: unbeaten in 7 this season, a 2.0 goals scored per game rate, and a defence that has allowed just 4 goals in that span. Zalgiris Vilnius, by contrast, have lost 2 of their last 5 and failed to score in 3 of those, though their season-long attack rate is boosted by earlier, higher-scoring fixtures. The recent head-to-head edge also tilts to Panevėžys, who have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, including a 2-0 victory just a month ago.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Panevėžys are conceding only 0.4 goals per game over their last 5 matches.
- →Panevėžys have a 42.86% clean sheet rate this season, compared to Zalgiris Vilnius' 20%.
Match Context
- →Zalgiris Vilnius have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and average just 0.8 goals per match in that run.
How FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Panevėžys Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
FK Zalgiris Vilniuslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Panevėžyslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Panevėžys are on a strong run, winning four of their last five and keeping three clean sheets, while Zalgiris Vilnius have faltered with two losses and three blanks in their last five. The underlying rates suggest Panevėžys are trending upwards, with Zalgiris Vilnius struggling for attacking output lately.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys
The last ten meetings have been competitive, with Panevėžys holding a slight edge at five wins to four, and only one draw. High-scoring games are common in this fixture, with seven of the last ten producing at least three goals, including a 2-0 Panevėžys win just a month ago.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins
0
Draws
6
Panevėžys wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys
With no bookmaker odds provided, it's not possible to quantify value edges for this fixture. The model's strongest lean is towards Panevėžys in the 1X2 market and a moderate preference for over 2.5 goals, both based on recent form and season-long scoring rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Recent shots and possession data are missing, limiting model granularity.
- ⚠️Friendlies may see rotated lineups or variable motivation, increasing outcome variance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–2 PanevėžysThe model calls this 2-1 to Panevėžys, driven primarily by their current defensive record—just 0.4 goals conceded per game in their last five—and Zalgiris Vilnius' recent scoring drought. The main risk is Zalgiris Vilnius rediscovering their early-season attacking form, which could tilt the goal count or produce a draw.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys: Common Questions
Who will win FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys?
Panevėžys are favoured with a 46% probability of victory, compared to 22% for Zalgiris Vilnius and 32% for the draw. This is based on Panevėžys' unbeaten season and defensive record.
Will both teams score in FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys?
The model gives a 52% chance of both teams scoring, reflecting Panevėžys' defensive strength but also the high-scoring history between these sides, with 7 of the last 10 H2Hs featuring goals for both.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys?
There's a 54% probability for over 2.5 goals, supported by Zalgiris Vilnius' 80% over 2.5 rate this season and the H2H trend, though Panevėžys' defence could keep the total down.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.