Fulham vs Bournemouth Predictions
Premier League · England
Fulham
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Bournemouth
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 3.1(+12% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Evanilson Strikes as Bournemouth Edge Ten-Man Fulham in Fiery Craven Cottage Clash
Bournemouth secured a crucial 1-0 away victory over Fulham at Craven Cottage, thanks to a decisive second-half goal from Evanilson. In a match marked by high tension and disciplinary drama, both sides ended with ten men, but it was the Cherries who capitalized on their chances, with Đorđe Petrović producing key saves to preserve the clean sheet. Fulham dominated possession with 60% and peppered the Bournemouth box with 14 shots and 11 corners, but a lack of cutting edge in the final third and resolute Bournemouth defending left them frustrated. The visitors, meanwhile, were clinical, with Evanilson's 53rd-minute strike proving the difference in a contest that saw a flurry of cards and physical battles throughout.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
53' — Goal
Evanilson scores for Bournemouth, finishing off a swift counter-attack to put the visitors ahead.
60s' — Red Card
Fulham reduced to ten men after a straight red card, compounding their challenge.
70s' — Red Card
Bournemouth also see red, evening up the numbers but holding on to their advantage.
Final 10' — Late Pressure
Fulham push forward with 11 corners overall, but Bournemouth's defense and Đorđe Petrović stand firm.
Fulham
Fulham controlled much of the ball and territory, boasting 60% possession and forcing 11 corners, but their attacking efforts lacked precision, managing just 2 shots on target from 14 attempts. Despite the creative efforts of Emile Smith Rowe and Harry Wilson, the Cottagers struggled to break down Bournemouth's disciplined back line. Their task was made even harder by a second-half red card, which hampered their momentum during a crucial phase of the match. Defensively, Fulham were generally solid but were undone by a moment of quality from Evanilson. The home side's frustration was evident in their 12 fouls and 4 yellow cards, culminating in a red card that left them with ten men for a significant portion of the second half.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Bournemouth
Bournemouth delivered a disciplined and clinical away performance, soaking up Fulham's pressure and hitting decisively on the break. With only 40% possession and just 2 corners, the Cherries focused on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their attacking efficiency paid dividends when Evanilson found the net in the 53rd minute, and they managed 5 shots on target from 10 total attempts. The visitors' defensive organization was matched by Đorđe Petrović's reliability in goal, as he thwarted Fulham's best opportunities. Bournemouth also had to navigate the final stages with ten men after a red card, but their composure and resilience saw them over the line.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Fulham emphasizing possession and width through Antonee Robinson and Timothy Castagne, while Bournemouth sat deeper and looked to break quickly. Fulham's double pivot of Saša Lukić and Tom Cairney facilitated ball retention but lacked the incisiveness to unlock Bournemouth's compact shape. The visitors, meanwhile, were content to cede possession, focusing on defensive organization and exploiting transitions, as seen in Evanilson's winning goal. Substitutions and red cards forced tactical adjustments, with both sides shifting to more conservative shapes after going down to ten men. Bournemouth's defensive block became even more entrenched, while Fulham committed more players forward, but without the numerical advantage, their attacks remained blunted.
Turning Point
Evanilson's goal in the 53rd minute, coming just before Fulham's red card, shifted the momentum decisively in Bournemouth's favor.
Man of the Match
Evanilson
Scored the decisive goal and was a constant threat on the counter, making the difference in a tight contest.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Fulham vs Bournemouth Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Fulham vs Bournemouth?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Fulham vs Bournemouth(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.65
Both teams are closely matched in form and league position, with high draw rates (Bournemouth 16 draws in 34, Fulham 6 in 34 but several recent stalemates). H2H history also features 4 draws in last 10. Model probability (0.37) exceeds implied (0.27), giving value.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 3.1
Both teams average above 1.25 goals for and against per game, and Bournemouth away matches see 60% over 2.5. Model probability (0.44) is above implied (0.32), offering value despite recent low Fulham goal counts.
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More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Fulham vs Bournemouth Prediction
This is a tight mid-table clash between Fulham and Bournemouth, with both sides separated by just one point and showing similar form. Fulham are strong at home (10 wins in 17) but have struggled to score recently, while Bournemouth are draw specialists with a slightly better attack but a leaky away defence. The H2H record is balanced, with draws and away wins common. Expect a cagey, competitive match with few clear chances, likely to be decided by set pieces or a single moment of quality.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →H2H: 4 draws in last 10, and away teams have won 4 times.
Defence
- →Fulham have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 but failed to score in 3 of those.
- →Both teams average ~1.3-1.5 goals scored and conceded per game.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Bournemouth have lost only 1 of their last 10 but drawn 6, including 4 of last 5.
- →Fulham's home record is strong (10W, 2D, 5L), Bournemouth's away is average (5W, 7D, 5L).
- →Recent matches for both have seen low first half goal counts.
🚩 Fulham vs Bournemouth Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Fulham and 4 for Bournemouth, for an expected total of 9.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 61% · Over 10.5: 35%.
How Fulham and Bournemouth Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Fulham vs Bournemouth Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Fulhamlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Bournemouthlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Fulham vs Bournemouth — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
What History Says: Fulham vs Bournemouth
Fulham vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Fulham wins
4
Draws
5
Bournemouth wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Fulham vs Bournemouth
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Fulham vs Bournemouth
- ⚠️Fulham's recent attack output is low, increasing risk for over 2.5 goals.
- ⚠️Bournemouth's high draw rate makes 1x2 outcomes volatile.
- ⚠️No lineup data available for this future fixture.
- ⚠️Market odds for BTTS and under 2.5 are very short, limiting value.
- ⚠️Motivation could be a factor with both teams safe in mid-table.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Fulham vs Bournemouth: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 2 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.