Fulham vs Crystal Palace Predictions
Premier League · England
Fulham
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Crystal Palace
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Fulham Win
@ 2.25(+1% edge)
Fulham vs Crystal Palace: Match Preview
Fulham come into this fixture having lost their opening Premier League match 2-3 at home to Chelsea, but their attacking output remains consistent, averaging 2.0 goals per game in the league and 1.8 across their last five matches in all competitions. Crystal Palace sit bottom of the table after two defeats, conceding six goals and scoring just once, with a 0-2 away loss at Everton highlighting defensive frailties. Both sides are seeking their first league points, but Fulham's home advantage and attacking continuity are notable against a Palace side on a three-game losing run.
The matchup is defined by Fulham's relatively high shot and possession numbers at home (14 shots, 62% possession vs Chelsea) against a Palace side averaging just 4 shots and 1 shot on target per game over their last five. Palace's away defence has already conceded twice at Everton and their season average sits at 3.0 goals against per match, while Fulham's own defence has been breached in every recent outing. Both teams have seen BTTS in three of their last five, but Palace's attack has failed to score in two of their last five and has produced just one goal in two league games.
Statistically, the model expects Fulham's attack to create the better chances, especially in the first half, with a 57% probability of the first goal before the 30th minute. The most likely outcome is a moderate-scoring Fulham win, with a 2-1 or 2-0 scoreline most probable. However, Palace's recent H2H success at this venue tempers confidence, and a draw remains a significant possibility if Fulham's defensive lapses continue.
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.20
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Fulham vs Crystal Palace that most previews miss.
- 1Crystal Palace have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five matches, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game in that span.
- 2Fulham's last five matches have produced an average of 3.2 total goals, with over 2.5 goals landing in 100% of their league games so far.
- 3Four of the last six competitive meetings at Craven Cottage have been won by Crystal Palace, all by multi-goal margins.
Who do you think wins: Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Fulham vs Crystal Palace(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Fulham Win@ 2.29
Fulham's home scoring rate (2.0 goals per game in league and 1.8 over last five) contrasts with Palace's away defensive record (2 goals conceded at Everton and 3.0 per game overall), giving Fulham a slight statistical edge at current odds.
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The Case For This Fulham vs Crystal Palace Prediction
The statistical profile points to a moderate-scoring match, with Fulham's home attack likely to test a Palace defence conceding at a high rate away from home. Both sides have shown recent vulnerability, but Fulham's attacking output and home advantage tip the balance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Fulham average 2.0 goals scored per league game and 1.8 over their last five matches.
Defence
- →Crystal Palace have conceded 3.0 goals per game in the league so far, including 2 away at Everton.
- →Palace have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches.
🚩 Fulham vs Crystal Palace Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.2 corners for Fulham and 3.4 for Crystal Palace, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Fulham and Crystal Palace Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Fulhamlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Crystal Palacelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Fulham have shown attacking consistency, scoring in every one of their last five matches and averaging 1.8 goals per game, but defensive frailty remains after conceding three to Chelsea. Palace, in contrast, are on a three-game losing streak and have conceded six goals in two league matches, with their attack stalling—just one goal scored and two blanks in their last five.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace — Last 2 Matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace have a strong recent record at Craven Cottage, winning four of their last five competitive visits, including a 2-1 league win last season. However, the last two league meetings at Fulham have ended with both teams scoring, and draws have been common in the overall H2H (four in the last ten).
Fulham vs Crystal Palace Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Fulham wins
4
Draws
4
Crystal Palace wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Fulham vs Crystal Palace
The model's probability for a Fulham win (45%) is marginally higher than the implied probability from the bookmaker odds (44.4% at 2.25), indicating a slim value edge on the home side. For other markets, the odds and model are closely aligned, with no significant value on BTTS or over/under 2.5 goals at current prices.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Fulham vs Crystal Palace
- ⚠️Early-season data means small sample sizes for league form and goal rates.
- ⚠️Recent H2H favours Palace, who have won four of the last six competitive meetings at Craven Cottage.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but starting lineups are not confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Fulham 2–1 Crystal PalaceFulham are projected to edge this contest 2-1, with their superior home scoring rate (2.0 per game) and Palace's defensive record (3.0 conceded per game) providing the strongest statistical foundation. The main risk is Palace's historical strength at Craven Cottage and Fulham's own defensive leaks, which could open the door for a draw or a Palace counter-attacking result.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace: Common Questions
Who will win Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
The model gives Fulham a 45% chance of victory, Crystal Palace 25%, and a draw 30%. Fulham's stronger home attack and Palace's defensive issues tip the probabilities in the home side's favour.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
There's a 54% probability both teams will score, based on recent BTTS rates (three of the last five for both sides) and both teams' defensive vulnerabilities.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 55%, with Fulham's matches averaging 3.2 goals over their last five and Palace conceding 3.0 per league game so far.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Fulham vs Crystal Palace: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.