GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
GIL Vicente
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Guimaraes
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 3.1(+12% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 3.1
Model gives 44% chance for under 2.5 goals, while odds imply only 32%. Both teams have under 50% over 2.5 on the season, and recent H2H includes low-scoring games.
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Match Result: GIL Vicente Win@ 1.54
GIL Vicente have a strong home record (8W/3D/3L), Guimaraes are poor away (3W/2D/9L), and home side is higher in the table. However, odds are a bit short for big value.
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BTTS: Yes@ 1.78
Model and market are close, but both teams have defensive vulnerabilities (last 5: 1.4/1.6 conceded per game). 3/5 GIL Vicente and 2/5 Guimaraes BTTS recently.
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More Primeira Liga Predictions
The Case For This GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes Prediction
GIL Vicente host Guimaraes in a mid-table clash where the home side's strong home form contrasts with the visitors' struggles on the road. Both teams have shown some attacking promise but also defensive frailties, suggesting an open game with a moderate goal expectation. Recent H2H meetings have been tight, but GIL Vicente's home advantage and Guimaraes's away record tip the balance slightly in the hosts' favour.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Last 5 form: GIL Vicente (W-L-D-D-L), Guimaraes (D-W-L-L-L).
Defence
- →GIL Vicente: 8W/3D/3L at home, 1.79 goals scored/game at home, 0.86 conceded.
- →Guimaraes: 3W/2D/9L away, only 0.79 goals scored/game away, 1.79 conceded.
- →Both teams average ~1.5 goals scored per game, but conceding over 1.2.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported.
Match Context
- →H2H: 6/10 last meetings under 2.5 goals; last meeting was 0-0.
🚩 GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for GIL Vicente and 4.8 for Guimaraes, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 59% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How GIL Vicente and Guimaraes Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
GIL Vicentelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Guimaraeslast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes
GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
GIL Vicente wins
1
Draws
6
Guimaraes wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes
Odds from Unibet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes
- ⚠️Some missing detailed stats for Guimaraes's recent matches (shots, possession, etc.).
- ⚠️Lineups for this fixture not yet available—late injuries or rotations possible.
- ⚠️Market odds are fairly efficient; value is modest.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.