Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Gornik Zabrze
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Radomiak Radom
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under: Over 1.5
@ 2.55(+38% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
52%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under: Over 1.5@ 2.55
Model probability 0.77 vs implied 0.39 (edge +0.38). Supported by venue xG total 2.8 and Radomiak’s away GA 29/16. Even with Gornik’s recent clean sheets (3/5), two goals remain a fair baseline.
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Over/Under: Over 2.5@ 6.5
Model probability 0.53 vs implied 0.15 (edge +0.38). Season Over 2.5 rates: Gornik 45.45%, Radomiak 57.58%; away defensive record (1.81 GA per away game) and adjusted scoreline 2-1 align with 3-goal potential.
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More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Prediction
Gornik Zabrze return to Zabrze in 2nd place with a strong home record (10-1-5, 28:15) and three clean sheets in their last five. Radomiak sit 8th but travel poorly (2-7-7 away, 17:29). The Poisson baseline leans Gornik (0.56 home) with a low modal score, yet venue xG sums to 2.8 and Radomiak’s away concessions keep a 2-1 type game live. H2H has been volatile (Radomiak won 4-0 in November; several prior 0-0 HTs), pointing to a cagey first half and more action after the break.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Gornik last 5: 3 clean sheets; goals allowed 0.6 per game.
Injuries & Team News
- →No listed injuries for either side.
Match Context
- →Gornik home split: 10-1-5 (28:15) vs Radomiak away: 2-7-7 (17:29).
- →Poisson expected goals: 1.8 (home) vs 1.0 (away), total 2.8.
- →Radomiak last 5 results include 3-1 and 2-1 wins; 3/5 over 2.5.
- →Season Over 2.5: Gornik 45.45%, Radomiak 57.58%.
- →H2H HT patterns feature multiple 0-0 intervals; last meeting ended 4-0 to Radomiak.
🚩 Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 7.2 corners for Gornik Zabrze and 5.5 for Radomiak Radom, for an expected total of 12.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (81%). Over 8.5: 88% · Over 10.5: 72%.
How Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Gornik Zabrzelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Radomiak Radomlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Gornik’s form string WDLWW features a 1-0 away win last time and three clean sheets in five. Radomiak’s LDWWW run includes wins vs Lechia (3-1) and Widzew (2-1), but they lost 1-3 vs Lech. Season splits show Gornik sturdy at home and Radomiak leaking goals away.
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom
Encounters tend to be binary: either low-tempo stalemates at HT (several 0-0) or open second halves (3-2 in Feb 2025; 4-0 in Nov 2025). Expect a cautious first half before space opens after the interval.
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Gornik Zabrze wins
3
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom
The model flags large positive edges on totals: Over 1.5 (model 0.77 vs implied 0.39) and Over 2.5 (0.53 vs 0.15). These align with a 2.8 xG baseline and Radomiak’s away defensive leakage. However, the posted under prices are unusually short relative to team-season goal rates—stake with caution.
Odds from Betfair. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom
- ⚠️Totals odds provided are extremely one-sided toward unders (e.g., Over 2.5 at 6.5, Under 1.08) and conflict with the model’s 2.8 xG; verify market integrity and limits before staking.
- ⚠️End-of-season motivation and rotations are unknown; standings pressure could alter game state dynamics.
- ⚠️Lineups are not confirmed; late changes (e.g., goalkeeper/striker) can shift goal probabilities.
- ⚠️Recent Gornik matches have skewed under with multiple clean sheets, tempering overs despite venue xG.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.