Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Predictions
Ekstraklasa · Poland
Radomiak Radom
Full Time
1 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 2
Gornik Zabrze
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Gornik Zabrze Win
Match Result
7.3/10Górnik Zabrze Outclass Radomiak with Clinical 3-1 Away Victory
Górnik Zabrze delivered a commanding performance on the road, defeating Radomiak Radom 3-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów. The visitors seized control early, opening the scoring in the 28th minute and doubling their advantage just before halftime. Despite Radomiak's spirited response after the break, Górnik's third goal in the 64th minute effectively put the contest beyond doubt. Radomiak managed to pull one back in the 67th minute, but Górnik's superior possession (54%) and attacking intent (21 shots, 6 on target) proved decisive. Both sides showed aggression, collecting four yellow cards each, but it was Górnik's efficiency in front of goal and composure under pressure that made the difference.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 3
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
28' — Goal
Górnik Zabrze open the scoring, capitalizing on early dominance.
45' — Goal
Górnik double their lead just before halftime, dealing a psychological blow to Radomiak.
64' — Goal
Górnik score their third, effectively sealing the result.
67' — Goal
Fernand Gouré pulls one back for Radomiak, briefly raising hopes for a comeback.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Both teams collect four yellow cards each in a physical contest.
Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom struggled to impose themselves against a well-organized Górnik side. Despite matching their opponents in midfield battles and registering 14 shots (5 on target), Radomiak found it difficult to create clear-cut chances and were often second-best in key moments. Their lone goal in the 67th minute offered a glimmer of hope, but a lack of defensive solidity and discipline (16 fouls, 4 yellow cards) undermined their efforts. The 4-1-4-1 formation provided some width and attacking impetus, but Radomiak were frequently exposed on the counter and unable to contain Górnik's dynamic midfielders.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Gornik Zabrze
Górnik Zabrze impressed with a disciplined and incisive display, dominating possession (54%) and launching 21 shots, 6 of which tested the Radomiak goalkeeper. Their 4-1-4-1 setup allowed for fluid transitions and effective pressing, disrupting Radomiak's build-up play and capitalizing on turnovers. The visitors struck first in the 28th minute and doubled their lead on the stroke of halftime, asserting their authority. A third goal in the 64th minute capped a clinical attacking performance, and while they conceded shortly after, Górnik managed the remainder of the match well, maintaining composure and seeing out a deserved victory.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both managers opted for a 4-1-4-1 formation, but Górnik Zabrze executed their game plan with greater precision. Their midfield trio, anchored by Maximilian Dietz, provided a solid base that allowed Paulo Bernardo and Kacper Urbański to push forward and link play. Górnik's pressing forced Radomiak into mistakes, while their full-backs offered width and supported attacks. Radomiak attempted to respond with direct play and overlapping runs from Conrado Buchanelli and Zié Ouattara, but their transitions were often stifled by Górnik's organized shape. The visitors' ability to quickly exploit spaces on the counter proved decisive, especially around the hour mark when they struck their third goal.
Turning Point
Górnik's second goal on the stroke of halftime (45') shifted the momentum decisively in their favor, leaving Radomiak with a mountain to climb.
Man of the Match
Paulo Bernardo
Dominated midfield with incisive passing and was instrumental in Górnik's attacking build-up.
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze: Match Preview
Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze meet off the back of opening-day wins and nearly identical league records, both sitting on three points with a +1 goal difference. Radomiak's recent form is erratic (form string LWLWL), but they have found the net in every one of their last five, while Gornik have mixed domestic and European action, drawing with Fenerbahçe and edging Slask Wroclaw in the league. Both sides are looking to build early momentum in the Ekstraklasa, with Radomiak seeking to make their home advantage count and Gornik aiming to translate continental sharpness to league consistency.
Statistically, this matchup is shaped by attacking intent and defensive frailty. Radomiak's last five have averaged 1.6 goals scored but 2.0 conceded, with no clean sheets and BTTS landing every time. Gornik, meanwhile, have averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded, but their shot and corner numbers (5.8 shots, 3.8 corners per game) outstrip Radomiak's (2.6 shots, 1.0 corners). The H2H series is notable for volatility: the last two meetings saw a 6-2 and a 4-0, with away teams prevailing. Set-piece threat and discipline could play a role, as both sides average over one yellow card per match.
The model expects a high-probability goal environment, with over 2.5 goals at 56% and BTTS at 60%. Gornik's superior shot output and recent European experience tip the balance slightly in their favour, but Radomiak's ability to score at home keeps the contest close. A 2-1 away win is the likeliest outcome, but a score draw is also plausible given both teams' defensive records.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
56%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze that most previews miss.
- 1Radomiak have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five, conceding exactly two goals in three of those matches.
- 2Gornik Zabrze have averaged 3.8 corners per game over their last five, nearly quadruple Radomiak's 1.0 per match.
- 3Seven of the last ten H2H meetings have featured at least two goals, with four producing four or more.
Who do you think wins: Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Gornik Zabrze Win
Gornik Zabrze have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over their last five, with a stronger shot and corner profile than Radomiak, and have won four of the last ten H2H meetings. The model gives them a 41% chance of victory, above the home side's 26%.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have seen 100% over 2.5 goals in their single league match this season, and Radomiak's last five have averaged 3.6 total goals per game, with BTTS landing in all five.
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More Ekstraklasa Predictions
The Case For This Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction
This fixture matches two sides with identical opening league wins and similar goal returns, but Gornik Zabrze's underlying shot and set-piece numbers suggest a marginal edge. Both teams have shown a tendency for open matches early in the season, with Radomiak yet to keep a clean sheet and Gornik conceding in four of their last five. The head-to-head history is balanced but has recently leaned toward high-scoring affairs, including a remarkable 6-2 away win for Radomiak last time out.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Radomiak's last five matches have all seen both teams score, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.
- →Gornik Zabrze have outperformed Radomiak in shots (5.8 vs 2.6) and corners (3.8 vs 1.0) per game over the last five.
Match Context
- →Four of the last ten H2H meetings have ended with at least four goals.
🚩 Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Radomiak Radom and 4 for Gornik Zabrze, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 23%.
How Radomiak Radom and Gornik Zabrze Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Radomiak Radomlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Gornik Zabrzelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Radomiak's recent run alternates wins and losses (LWLWL), but they have found the net in every match and conceded two or more in three of five. Gornik arrive unbeaten in their last two, including a Champions League draw with Fenerbahçe, and have won three of their last five in all competitions, showing greater stability.
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze
The last ten meetings are split evenly, but recent encounters have been high-scoring and unpredictable, with away wins in the last two (6-2 and 2-1). Four of the last five have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have shown they can score multiple times in this fixture.
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Radomiak Radom wins
2
Draws
5
Gornik Zabrze wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze
With no bookmaker odds available, value cannot be precisely calculated, but the model's probabilities highlight a mild lean towards Gornik Zabrze and a goal-rich environment. If market odds underprice the away win or over 2.5 goals, these would represent the clearest value angles based on the underlying data.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze
- ⚠️Both teams have played only one league match this season, so season averages are based on small samples.
- ⚠️Pre-season and cup matches may not fully reflect regular league intensity or lineups.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges and expected values are not calculated.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Radomiak Radom 1–2 Gornik ZabrzeThe model projects a 2-1 win for Gornik Zabrze, driven by their superior shot and corner rates (5.8 shots, 3.8 corners) and a recent H2H trend toward high-scoring away wins. The biggest risk is Radomiak's home scoring streak and the volatility of early-season form, which could see the match swing to a draw if Gornik's defence falters.
Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze: Common Questions
Who will win Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze are given a 41% chance of victory by the model, compared to 26% for Radomiak and 33% for the draw. Underlying shot and set-piece rates favour the away side, but both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities.
Will both teams score in Radomiak vs Gornik?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60%, with Radomiak seeing BTTS in all of their last five matches and Gornik conceding in four of five. Defensive records on both sides point to goals at each end.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
There is a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals, with both teams' only league match this season finishing 2-1 and recent H2H meetings regularly producing three or more goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Radomiak Radom vs Gornik Zabrze: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.