Granada CF vs Burgos Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Granada CF
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Burgos
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 3.1(+34% edge)
Match Result
6.7/10Late Nino Strike Lifts Burgos Over Granada in Dramatic Finale
Burgos snatched a dramatic 1-0 victory over Granada CF at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, with substitute F. Nino delivering the decisive blow in the 90th minute. In a match where both sides struggled to break each other down, it was Burgos who capitalized at the death, punishing a Granada side that had enjoyed more possession but failed to convert their dominance into clear chances. Granada controlled the ball for 55% of the match and matched Burgos shot for shot (8 attempts each), but could muster only a single effort on target. Burgos, meanwhile, were marginally more clinical, registering two shots on target and making their final opportunity count. The hosts' frustration was evident in their five yellow cards, as they battled to regain control after the late setback.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
90' — Goal
F. Nino scores the decisive goal for Burgos, sealing the win.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Granada pick up five yellow cards as frustration mounts.
Full Time' — Final Whistle
Burgos celebrate a hard-fought away victory.
Granada CF
Granada set out in a 4-3-3 formation and looked to dictate play, enjoying the majority of possession (55%) and attempting to build through the midfield trio of S. Ruiz, R. Alcaraz, and I. Gonzalez. Despite their territorial advantage, the hosts struggled to carve out clear-cut chances, managing just one shot on target from eight attempts. Their attacking trio, led by J. M. Arnaiz and G. Petit, were largely contained by a disciplined Burgos backline. As the match wore on, Granada became increasingly frustrated, picking up five yellow cards and conceding a late goal that left them with no time to respond. Their inability to convert possession into meaningful attacking threat ultimately cost them dearly.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Burgos
Burgos set up in a compact 4-2-3-1, ceding possession but remaining organized and dangerous on the break. They matched Granada's shot output and were slightly more effective in front of goal, with two shots on target. The visitors defended resolutely, conceding only three corners and picking up just two yellow cards, a testament to their composure under pressure. Their patience paid off in dramatic fashion as F. Nino struck in the 90th minute, sealing a vital win. Burgos's discipline, tactical structure, and ability to capitalize on their limited chances proved decisive in a tightly contested affair.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Granada's 4-3-3 sought to dominate the midfield and control the tempo, but their lack of width and penetration limited their attacking threat. The front three were often isolated, with Burgos's disciplined 4-2-3-1 structure closing down space and forcing Granada into speculative efforts. Burgos were content to absorb pressure and break quickly, focusing on defensive organization and set-piece opportunities. Both teams made limited tactical changes, with Burgos's late push ultimately rewarded. Set pieces and transitions played a key role, with Burgos looking more dangerous from corners (5 to Granada's 3) and ultimately finding the breakthrough in the dying moments. Granada's inability to adapt tactically or inject urgency in the final third proved costly.
Turning Point
F. Nino's 90th-minute goal, which stunned Granada and settled the contest.
Man of the Match
F. Nino
Came up with the decisive goal in the final minute to secure all three points for Burgos.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
28%
BTTS: Yes
36%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Granada CF vs Burgos Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Granada CF vs Burgos?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Granada CF vs Burgos(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 3.1
Both teams have low over 2.5 rates (Granada 41%, Burgos 33%), recent head-to-heads are consistently low-scoring, and both sides' last 5 average under 2 goals per match. The odds on under 2.5 are generous relative to the model's 66% probability.
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Match Result: Draw@ 2.9
This fixture has ended in a draw in 3 of the last 5 meetings, both teams are trending toward stalemates (Burgos 3 straight draws, Granada inconsistent), and the model gives a notably higher draw probability than the market.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Granada CF vs Burgos Prediction
Granada CF, struggling for consistency and leaking goals in recent weeks, host a Burgos side that has been hard to beat but also struggling to score. Both teams' recent matches have been tight, with Burgos especially favoring low-scoring draws of late. The head-to-head history between these sides is dominated by stalemates and low-scoring affairs, suggesting another cagey encounter is likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Burgos have drawn 3 straight and are on a DDDLW form run.
Defence
- →Granada's recent defensive frailty: 1.8 goals conceded per game in last 5.
- →Burgos' strong defensive record: only 0.85 conceded per game this season.
Match Context
- →Granada's home record is mediocre (6W 8D 5L), Burgos away are solid (8W 4D 7L).
- →Head-to-head: 3 of last 5 meetings drawn, 4/5 under 2.5 goals.
- →Both teams have low over 2.5 goal rates on the season.
🚩 Granada CF vs Burgos Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Granada CF and 5 for Burgos, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How Granada CF and Burgos Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Granada CF vs Burgos Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Granada CFlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burgoslast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Granada have lost 3 of their last 5, including a heavy 2-4 home defeat to Almeria, and are conceding nearly 2 goals per game recently. Burgos, meanwhile, are unbeaten in 4 (W1 D3), but have only scored twice in their last 5, relying heavily on defensive solidity to grind out results. Both sides are trending toward low-scoring, closely contested matches.
Granada CF vs Burgos — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.0 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.0 goals/game
What History Says: Granada CF vs Burgos
The last five head-to-heads have produced three draws and just one win for each side, with only one match exceeding two goals. This pattern of stalemates and defensive games is reinforced by both teams' recent form, suggesting another tight contest is likely.
Granada CF vs Burgos Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
2
Granada CF wins
3
Draws
1
Burgos wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Granada CF vs Burgos
The strongest value is on under 2.5 goals, where the model's probability is much higher than the implied odds, reflecting both teams' defensive tendencies and the low-scoring H2H record. The draw also presents value, as the model rates it more likely than the market, in line with both teams' recent and historical patterns.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Granada CF vs Burgos
- ⚠️Granada's attack and defense show high variance; recent home/away splits are not dominant.
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for recent Granada games reduce confidence in precise shot/corner projections.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed; late injuries or rotations could impact the tactical setup.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Granada CF vs Burgos: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.