Burgos vs Granada CF Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Burgos
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 1
Granada CF
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
7.2/10Granada Edge Burgos in Smash-and-Grab at El Plantio
Granada CF snatched a hard-fought 1-0 away victory over Burgos at Municipal El Plantio, despite being on the back foot for much of the contest. The visitors took the lead in the 25th minute and then withstood relentless pressure, as Burgos dominated possession (64%) and fired 23 shots, but could not find a breakthrough. Granada, in contrast, were clinical with their limited opportunities, registering only 7 shots but making one count. The match was a tale of frustration for the home side, who created more chances and forced 5 shots on target, yet found Granada goalkeeper Alberto Flores in inspired form. Burgos also saw four players booked in a physical encounter, while Granada’s disciplined defensive display and ability to absorb pressure ultimately secured all three points.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
25' — Goal
José Arnáiz scores for Granada, finishing off a rare attack to put the visitors ahead.
38' — Yellow Card
Burgos pick up their first yellow as frustration grows.
54' — Yellow Card
Another Burgos player booked as they push for an equalizer.
68' — Yellow Card
Granada’s disciplined defense leads to a tactical foul and booking.
80' — Yellow Card
Burgos’ fourth yellow card as desperation mounts in the closing stages.
Burgos
Burgos controlled the tempo and territory, enjoying 64% possession and racking up 23 shots, but their finishing let them down. Despite sustained pressure, they were unable to breach Granada’s defense or capitalize on their four corners. The midfield worked tirelessly to recycle possession and probe for openings, but the final ball and composure in front of goal were lacking. Defensively, Burgos were rarely troubled aside from the decisive moment in the first half. Frustration crept in as the match wore on, reflected in four yellow cards, and their 4-4-2 setup could not deliver the cutting edge required to overturn the deficit.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Granada CF
Granada executed a textbook away performance, soaking up pressure and striking decisively on the counter. Their 4-3-3 formation allowed them to remain compact defensively, and they were ruthless with their limited opportunities, converting one of just three shots on target. The back four, marshaled by Manu Lama and Juan José Flores Castro, stood firm under intense pressure, while Alberto Flores produced key saves to preserve the lead. Despite conceding the lion’s share of possession, Granada’s discipline and organization were exemplary. They committed 14 fouls to disrupt Burgos’ rhythm and picked up two yellow cards, but their tactical approach paid dividends as they left El Plantio with all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Burgos lined up in a 4-4-2, seeking to control the midfield and attack with width, which allowed them to dominate possession and create a high volume of chances. Their fullbacks pushed forward, but Granada’s compact 4-3-3 shape stifled central penetration and forced Burgos into lower-quality opportunities. The home side’s pressing was effective in regaining the ball, but their inability to convert chances proved costly. Granada’s tactical discipline was the foundation of their success. They sat deep and absorbed pressure, breaking only occasionally but with purpose. Their midfield trio shielded the defense well, and the wingers tracked back to support the fullbacks. Set pieces offered little for either side, but Granada’s ability to frustrate Burgos and disrupt their rhythm with timely fouls and defensive organization was decisive.
Turning Point
José Arnáiz’s 25th-minute goal, which allowed Granada to retreat into a defensive shell and force Burgos to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Alberto Flores
Produced a string of vital saves under siege to secure the clean sheet and all three points for Granada.
Burgos vs Granada CF: Match Preview
Burgos enter this fixture sixth in the table, buoyed by an unbeaten home record (3W, 1D) and a recent run of three wins in their last four matches. Their 14-point haul from eight games reflects a side that has found a balance between attack and defence, while Granada sit three points behind in ninth, having just snapped a poor run with a 3-2 away win but still conceding heavily on their travels.
The statistical profile of this match is shaped by high goal involvement on both sides. Burgos average 2.25 goals for per home game, and Granada's away games are even more open, with 3.4 total goals per match and 19.2 shots attempted per game in their last five. Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 62.5% of league fixtures, and BTTS has landed in seven of their last ten combined. Burgos' defensive output at home (1.25 conceded per game) is steadier than Granada's (1.8 conceded away), but neither side keeps clean sheets reliably.
The model expects an open encounter, with both teams creating chances and defensive vulnerabilities likely to be exposed. Burgos' home advantage and slightly more robust defence give them the edge, but Granada's firepower—particularly in the second half—means a high-scoring draw or narrow home win is most probable. Expect goals at both ends and a contest decided by finishing quality.
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 1.25
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Burgos vs Granada CF Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Burgos vs Granada CF that most previews miss.
- 1Granada's last five away games have averaged 3.4 goals, with four of those seeing both teams score.
- 2Burgos have scored in every home match this season and have failed to score only once in eight league games.
- 3Across the last six H2H meetings, four have finished level, and three have ended 1-1 or 2-2.
Who do you think wins: Burgos vs Granada CF?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Burgos vs Granada CF(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both sides have seen over 2.5 goals in 62.5% of their league matches and their combined season scoring/conceding rates (Burgos 1.5 for/1.13 against, Granada 1.63 for/1.63 against) point to a goal-rich environment.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in 3 of Burgos' and 4 of Granada's last 5, and neither side has kept more than two clean sheets in eight games.
More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Burgos vs Granada CF Prediction
Statistically, this fixture sits above the league average for goals, with both Burgos and Granada showing a tendency for open games and defensive lapses. Burgos' home record (3W, 1D, 0L, 2.25 goals scored per game) is a key advantage, but Granada's away attack (1.6 goals per game, 19.2 shots per match in their last five) ensures threat at both ends. The likeliest scenario is a competitive, high-tempo contest with both teams finding the net, but Burgos' greater defensive stability at home tips the balance slightly in their favour.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Burgos are unbeaten at home (3W, 1D), averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game at their own ground.
- →Granada's away matches average 3.4 total goals, with 8 scored and 9 conceded in five away games.
Match Context
- →Both teams have hit over 2.5 goals in 62.5% of league games, well above Segunda División norms.
🚩 Burgos vs Granada CF Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.7 corners for Burgos and 4.3 for Granada CF, for an expected total of 8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 41% · Over 10.5: 18%.
How Burgos and Granada CF Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Burgos vs Granada CF Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Burgoslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Granada CFlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burgos have taken 10 points from their last five games (form: LWWWD), including three wins and a draw at home, conceding just four goals in that stretch. Granada, meanwhile, have struggled defensively with three losses in their last five (WLLDL), but did score three in their most recent away win, highlighting their attacking potential but ongoing defensive volatility.
Burgos vs Granada CF — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 17 shots/game
What History Says: Burgos vs Granada CF
The head-to-head record is finely balanced, with four draws in the last six meetings and three of those ending 1-1 or 2-2. Neither side has managed more than one win over the other in the last three seasons, and both have found the net in four of the last five encounters.
Burgos vs Granada CF Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
1
Burgos wins
3
Draws
3
Granada CF wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Burgos vs Granada CF
With no bookmaker odds available, the model cannot identify explicit value edges. However, the statistical case for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score is strong, given the high frequency of these outcomes in both teams' matches. If market odds for these are above 1.90, they would likely represent positive expected value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Burgos vs Granada CF
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value assessment is limited.
- ⚠️Both teams' defensive numbers are volatile, especially Granada's (2.4 conceded per game in last five).
- ⚠️Small sample on recent form; early-season variance may inflate goal rates.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Burgos 2–1 Granada CFA 2-1 win for Burgos is the statistical baseline, driven by their unbeaten home record and Granada's leaky away defence (1.8 conceded per away game). The biggest risk is Granada's attacking volume—nearly 20 shots per game in their last five—which could easily see them score more than once if Burgos' defence lapses.
Burgos vs Granada CF: Common Questions
Who will win Burgos vs Granada CF?
Burgos are slight favourites with a 41% probability of victory, compared to 27% for Granada and 32% for the draw. Their unbeaten home record and Granada's defensive issues away from home underpin this edge.
Will both teams score in Burgos vs Granada CF?
The model gives a 57% probability to both teams scoring, supported by BTTS landing in 7 of the last 10 combined matches and both sides averaging over 1.5 goals for and against per game.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Burgos vs Granada CF?
There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals, with both teams seeing over 2.5 in 62.5% of their league fixtures and Granada's away games averaging 3.4 total goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Burgos vs Granada CF: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 5 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.