FC Andorra vs Burgos Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
FC Andorra
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Burgos
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Draw: Draw
Recommended Bets: FC Andorra vs Burgos
FC Andorra vs Burgos: Match Preview
FC Andorra enter the fixture sitting 18th with 10 points from 10 matches, struggling to build momentum but showing some resilience at home (2 wins, 3 losses, 8-8 goal record). Burgos, 8th on 17 points, have been more consistent overall but less convincing away from home (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses, 3-4 goal difference). Both sides have identical season scoring rates (1.3 per game), and each has managed two clean sheets in their last five, suggesting neither attack is likely to run away with it.
Statistically, the matchup is balanced: Andorra's attack averages 9 shots and 4 on target per game across the last five, while Burgos' defence has allowed just 0.8 goals per match in that span. Conversely, Burgos' attack is not prolific on the road (0.75 goals per away game), and Andorra's defence at home concedes 1.6 per match. Both sides' over 2.5 goal rate sits at 50%, but their recent matches and H2H history trend lower-scoring, with three of the last five meetings under 2.5 goals. Discipline could play a role, as Andorra are averaging 4 yellow cards and nearly 19 fouls per match lately.
The model expects a tight contest with limited clear-cut chances, most likely decided by a single goal or a deadlock. The highest probability is assigned to a 1-1 draw, reflecting the symmetry in both teams' scoring and concession rates and the lack of a clear statistical edge. A low-scoring affair is favoured, with the potential for cards to accumulate given both sides' recent discipline records.
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Expected goals · model says 1.05
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
FC Andorra vs Burgos Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind FC Andorra vs Burgos that most previews miss.
- 1FC Andorra's home matches average 3.2 goals per game, but their last three at home have seen just 1.7 combined.
- 2Burgos' away games have produced only 1.75 goals per match, with just one of four going over 2.5.
- 3Across the last 5 matches, both teams have seen BTTS land only twice, supporting a slight lean to 'no' in both teams to score.
Who do you think wins: FC Andorra vs Burgos?
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Where the Model Sees Value: FC Andorra vs Burgos(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Draw: Draw
Both teams average 1.3 goals scored per game this season, and have drawn 3 of their last 7 head-to-heads or lost by a single goal. The model gives the draw a 37% probability, slightly above typical market rates for this level.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides have a 50% under 2.5 goals rate this season, and their last 5 match averages (1.0 scored per side) point to a low-scoring contest. The model projects a 59% chance of under 2.5 goals.
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Cards: Over 4.5
FC Andorra average 4 yellow cards per game over the last 5, with 18.6 fouls per match, while Burgos are at 3 yellows and 14 fouls. This points to a high-card environment, with the model estimating a 74% chance of over 4.5 cards.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This FC Andorra vs Burgos Prediction
A statistical deadlock is likely between two sides averaging identical goal rates and both trending towards the league mean for both attack and defence. FC Andorra's home record (2W, 3L, 8-8) is matched by Burgos' away output (1W, 1D, 2L, 3-4), with neither side showing a consistent edge in either direction. The most probable outcome is a draw, with the underlying rates and recent form both pointing towards a low-scoring, competitive contest.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average 1.3 goals scored per game this season.
Defence
- →FC Andorra have conceded 1.7 per match, while Burgos allow just 1.0.
- →Last 5 matches: both sides with 2 clean sheets and 2 failed to score.
🚩 FC Andorra vs Burgos Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for FC Andorra and 4.4 for Burgos, for an expected total of 10. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 67% · Over 10.5: 42%.
How FC Andorra and Burgos Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
FC Andorra vs Burgos Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
FC Andorralast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burgoslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
FC Andorra's recent form is mixed, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five, including a home win over Castellón and a 0-2 defeat at Girona. Burgos have taken three wins from their last five, but both defeats came away or against strong opposition. Both sides have managed two clean sheets in this span, but neither has scored more than once in three of their last five.
FC Andorra vs Burgos — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: FC Andorra vs Burgos
Burgos have the historical edge, winning four of the last seven meetings, but FC Andorra have won the last two at home. Recent head-to-heads have been tight, with three of the last five finishing under 2.5 goals and only one match seeing both teams score more than once.
FC Andorra vs Burgos Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
2
FC Andorra wins
1
Draws
4
Burgos wins
Things to Watch: FC Andorra vs Burgos
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Recent form sample is small; single-match volatility is high.
- ⚠️Lineups and late injuries are unknown and could shift probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
FC Andorra 1–1 BurgosThe model calls a 1-1 draw, anchored by both teams' identical 1.3 goals per game scoring rate and the lack of attacking separation in recent form. The main risk is Andorra's defensive volatility (1.7 conceded per game), which could allow Burgos to edge it if they convert their chances, but the away side's modest away record tempers that threat.
FC Andorra vs Burgos: Common Questions
Who will win FC Andorra vs Burgos?
The model gives FC Andorra a 28% chance of winning, the draw a 37% probability, and Burgos a 35% chance. Both teams have similar scoring rates and recent form, so a draw is the most likely outcome.
Will both teams score in FC Andorra vs Burgos?
There's a 49% probability of both teams scoring, reflecting that each side averages 1.3 goals per game but has also kept two clean sheets in their last five matches. The data points slightly towards 'no' for BTTS.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in FC Andorra vs Burgos?
Yes, the model estimates a 59% chance of under 2.5 goals. Both teams have a 50% season rate for under 2.5, and recent head-to-heads and match averages suggest a low-scoring contest.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for FC Andorra vs Burgos: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 19 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.