Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC Predictions
Segunda División · Spain
Cadiz
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
AD Ceuta FC
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Recommended Bets: Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC: Match Preview
Cadiz and AD Ceuta FC both enter this fixture mired in the relegation zone, with Cadiz 20th on 7 points and Ceuta just below on 5. Cadiz's recent form reads LWDLL, with only one win from nine league matches, while Ceuta have lost seven of ten and are on a two-game losing streak. Both sides are under pressure to halt their slides, especially as their direct rivals in the table are beginning to pick up points.
Statistically, this is a matchup of a blunt home attack against a porous away defence. Cadiz average just 1.0 goals per home game, but Ceuta have shipped 12 in four away matches (3.0 per game). However, Ceuta's attack has improved, averaging 1.4 goals per game over their last five, and they've scored in every recent outing. Both teams' matches trend towards BTTS—Ceuta have seen it in all of their last five, Cadiz in two of five—while neither side keeps many clean sheets (Cadiz 22.2%, Ceuta 0%).
Given these rates, the model expects a low-scoring contest with both teams likely to find the net but neither able to dominate. The most probable outcome is a draw, with the 1-1 scoreline best reflecting the underlying goal rates and both teams' inability to close out matches defensively.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
39%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC that most previews miss.
- 1Ceuta have conceded at least twice in every away league match this season (12 goals in 4 games).
- 2Cadiz have failed to score in two of their last five but managed four goals in their only win during that stretch.
- 3Combined corners per game over the last five for both teams is 12.0, indicating a high set-piece count.
Who do you think wins: Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average just over a goal per game (Cadiz 1.22, Ceuta 0.9), but Ceuta's away defence (12 conceded in 4) and Cadiz's home attack (1 goal/game) point to a likely low-scoring draw. The 1-1 has occurred in both teams' recent away/home draws and fits the underlying rates.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Cadiz matches have gone under 2.5 in 55.6% of games, and Ceuta have failed to score more than once in any away match. Both teams' attack rates and recent trends support a low goal count.
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BTTS: Yes
Ceuta have seen BTTS in all of their last 5, and Cadiz have conceded in 4 of their last 5. Both teams' defensive frailties suggest chances at both ends despite low overall scoring.
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More Segunda División Predictions
The Case For This Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction
This is a meeting of two struggling sides in the bottom three, with Cadiz and AD Ceuta FC both desperate for points to climb out of the relegation zone. Cadiz have just one win from nine and have found goals hard to come by at home, while Ceuta arrive with the division's worst defensive record away from home but have shown a slight uptick in attacking output recently. Both teams' season-long scoring rates and defensive weaknesses suggest a closely contested, low-scoring draw is the likeliest outcome.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams have seen BTTS in 5 of Ceuta's last 5 matches and 2 of Cadiz's last 5.
Defence
- →Ceuta have conceded 12 goals in 4 away games (3.0 per game), the worst away defence in the league.
Match Context
- →Cadiz have managed just 6 goals in 6 home matches (1.0 per game) and only one home win all season.
🚩 Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Cadiz and 6.4 for AD Ceuta FC, for an expected total of 11.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (73%). Over 8.5: 82% · Over 10.5: 62%.
How Cadiz and AD Ceuta FC Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cadizlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
AD Ceuta FClast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Cadiz have picked up just one win in their last five (LWDLL), with a notable 4-0 victory over Leganes offset by three defeats and a lack of goals in most matches. Ceuta's recent form is similarly poor (LLDWD), but they have at least managed to score in each of their last five, even as defensive issues persist.
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +High-volume attack — 19 shots/game
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC
Ceuta have the edge in head-to-head encounters, winning three of four meetings (including two friendlies), with Cadiz yet to register a win. The only competitive draw was a goalless stalemate at this ground last season, but Ceuta have otherwise found the net freely in this fixture.
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
0
Cadiz wins
1
Draws
3
AD Ceuta FC wins
Things to Watch: Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value calculation is limited.
- ⚠️Small sample size for H2H (only 2 competitive fixtures) and recent form may not fully reflect underlying team strength.
- ⚠️Ceuta's recent attacking improvement (1.4 goals/game last 5) could be overstated by a single high-scoring fixture.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Cadiz 1–1 AD Ceuta FCThe model projects a 1-1 draw, driven primarily by Ceuta's league-worst away defensive record (3.0 conceded per game) set against Cadiz's lacklustre home attack (1.0 scored per game). If either side's recent attacking upturn proves sustainable, a 2-1 result either way is plausible, but the underlying rates point to a stalemate with limited scoring.
Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC: Common Questions
Who will win Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC?
The model gives Cadiz a 39% chance of victory and Ceuta 25%, with a 36% probability of a draw. Both teams are struggling, so the draw is marginally favoured based on their season-long records.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Ceuta?
There is a 56% probability of both teams scoring, with Ceuta having seen BTTS in all of their last five and Cadiz conceding in four of their last five. Defensive frailties on both sides support this outcome.
Is under 2.5 goals likely in Cadiz vs Ceuta?
Under 2.5 goals is rated at 57% probability, reflecting Cadiz's low home scoring rate and Ceuta's struggles to score more than once away from home.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cadiz vs AD Ceuta FC: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.