Gremio vs Bahia Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Gremio
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Bahia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Bahia Win
@ 2.9(+14% edge)
Recommended Bets: Gremio vs Bahia
Gremio vs Bahia: Match Preview
Gremio enter this fixture under pressure, sitting 18th and desperate for points to escape relegation. Their recent form is mixed but trending up, with three wins in their last five across all competitions and a run of three clean sheets. Bahia, in contrast, are sixth and chasing a continental place, having won two of their last three and scoring 50 goals across the season, the sixth-best tally in the division.
The statistical battle is defined by Bahia's attack (1.47 goals/game) against a Gremio defence that has struggled for consistency, especially at home (1.24 goals conceded per game, 23.5% clean sheet rate). Bahia's away matches average 2.94 goals, and both teams have seen three or more goals in over half their games (Bahia: 52.9% over 2.5, Gremio: 44.1%). Both sides average over 5 corners per game recently, and Bahia's last five have seen an uptick in first-half goals (5 scored before the break).
The model expects Bahia's greater attacking output and shot volume (13.4 per game last five) to make the difference, despite Gremio's improved defensive showings. The likeliest scenario is a competitive match, with Bahia's superior scoring rates and Gremio's need to attack leading to a 2-1 away win.
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Gremio vs Bahia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Gremio vs Bahia that most previews miss.
- 1Bahia's away matches average 2.94 goals per game, with 53% finishing over 2.5 goals.
- 2Gremio have failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 home league games.
- 3Across the last 10 H2H meetings, five finished either 1-1 or 1-0 to the home side.
Who do you think wins: Gremio vs Bahia?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Gremio vs Bahia(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Bahia Win@ 2.86
Bahia's away win probability is estimated at 39% versus an implied 34.5% from odds of 2.9, driven by their superior season scoring rate (1.47 goals/game) and Gremio's defensive frailty (1.38 conceded/game at home).
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The Case For This Gremio vs Bahia Prediction
This fixture pits relegation-threatened Gremio, who have found some recent defensive solidity, against a Bahia side pushing for continental qualification and boasting a superior attack. Gremio's home record (8W, 5D, 4L) is respectable, but their overall season numbers are undermined by a -9 goal difference and a low clean sheet rate. Bahia, sixth in the table, travel well (24 goals in 17 away games) and have posted the league's sixth-best attack. Statistically, this matchup is shaped by Bahia's attacking intent and Gremio's vulnerability when pressed. Bahia average 1.47 goals per game (1.41 on the road), while Gremio concede 1.24 per home game. Both sides' recent matches have seen goals: Bahia's last five average 3.2 total goals, and Gremio have scored in every one of their last five. Corners are likely with both averaging over 5 per game recently, and cards may be above average given Bahia's 2.2 yellows per game in the last five. The model projects a moderately high-scoring contest, with Bahia's edge in attack likely to tell. Gremio's recent uptick in defensive performance (three clean sheets in five) is noted, but Bahia's superior shot volume and away scoring rate tip the balance. Expect a competitive opening half, but Bahia's greater attacking depth should see them edge it.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Bahia's season scoring rate (1.47 goals/game) outpaces Gremio's (1.12), especially away from home.
- →Bahia's away record (6W, 5D, 6L) includes 24 goals scored in 17 games, indicating consistent threat on the road.
Defence
- →Gremio's home defence concedes 1.24 goals per match, with a clean sheet rate of just 23.5%.
🚩 Gremio vs Bahia Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Gremio and 6 for Bahia, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
How Gremio and Bahia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Gremio vs Bahia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Gremiolast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bahialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Gremio have found some late-season momentum, winning three of their last five in all competitions and posting three clean sheets, but remain in the relegation zone after a difficult campaign. Bahia's form is more erratic (LWDLW), but their attack remains productive, averaging 1.4 goals per game in the last five and keeping themselves in the hunt for continental qualification.
Gremio vs Bahia — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Gremio vs Bahia
The last ten meetings between these sides are evenly split, with three wins apiece and four draws. Recent encounters in Porto Alegre have tended to be cagey, with two of the last three at Gremio's ground ending 1-0 to the hosts. The reverse fixture this season finished 1-1, continuing a trend of close, low-margin games.
Gremio vs Bahia Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Gremio wins
4
Draws
3
Bahia wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Gremio vs Bahia
The main value edge is on Bahia to win at odds of 2.9, with the model's 39% probability outstripping the implied 34.5%. Other markets such as over 2.5 goals and BTTS are close to fair value, with no significant edges at current odds.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Gremio vs Bahia
- ⚠️Gremio's recent home form is improved, with two clean sheets in their last two at Arena do Grêmio.
- ⚠️Bahia's defence remains leaky (1.53 conceded/game away), so Gremio are likely to create chances.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but late lineup changes could affect probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Gremio 1–2 BahiaThe model projects a 2-1 win for Bahia, with their 1.47 goals per game season average and strong away scoring record the decisive factors. Gremio's recent defensive improvement could keep it close, but their low home clean sheet rate and Bahia's attacking depth tilt the balance. If Gremio sustain their recent defensive uptick, a draw or a narrow home win is plausible.
Gremio vs Bahia: Common Questions
Who will win Gremio vs Bahia?
Bahia have a 39% chance of winning according to the model, compared to 32% for Gremio and 29% for the draw. Bahia's superior season scoring rate and Gremio's defensive record are key factors.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Bahia?
Both teams to score is rated at 58%, reflecting Gremio's record of scoring in their last five and Bahia's away defence conceding 1.53 goals per game.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Gremio vs Bahia?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 57%, with both teams' matches trending high-scoring: Bahia's away games average 2.94 goals and Gremio's home games average 2.82.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Gremio vs Bahia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.