Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS Predictions
Serie C · Brazil
Guarani Campinas
Full Time
2 - 2
AI predicted 2 - 1
Ypiranga-RS
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
Match Result
7.5/10Guarani and Ypiranga-RS Share the Spoils in Four-Goal Campinas Thriller
Guarani Campinas and Ypiranga-RS played out an entertaining 2-2 draw in Campinas, with both sides enjoying periods of ascendancy but ultimately unable to find a winner. The hosts took the initiative, striking first in the 32nd minute and doubling their advantage just after the break in the 53rd. However, Ypiranga-RS mounted a spirited comeback, responding with two quick-fire goals in the 62nd and 66th minutes to level the contest. The match was a tale of two halves, with Guarani initially in control before Ypiranga-RS turned the momentum in their favor. Both teams showed attacking intent but also defensive vulnerabilities, as evidenced by the four-goal haul. A flurry of yellow cards, particularly for the visitors, underscored the competitive edge of the encounter. In the end, neither side could find the decisive third goal, settling for a point apiece.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
2 - 2
Key Moments
32' — Goal
Guarani take the lead with the opening goal.
53' — Goal
Guarani double their advantage shortly after halftime.
62' — Goal
Ypiranga-RS pull one back to begin their comeback.
66' — Goal
Ypiranga-RS equalize just four minutes later.
Unknown' — Yellow Card
Guarani receive a yellow card as tempers flare.
Unknown' — Yellow Card
Ypiranga-RS pick up three yellow cards in a physical contest.
Guarani Campinas
Guarani started brightly, capitalizing on their early dominance with a goal in the 32nd minute and looked to have taken control with a second goal shortly after halftime. However, lapses in concentration allowed Ypiranga-RS back into the game, and the hosts struggled to regain their composure after conceding twice in quick succession. Despite their attacking efforts, Guarani couldn't find a late winner and were forced to settle for a draw.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Ypiranga-RS
Ypiranga-RS showed impressive resilience, coming from two goals down to salvage a point on the road. Their response after falling behind was swift and decisive, with goals in the 62nd and 66th minutes turning the tide. While they picked up three yellow cards in a combative display, their attacking intent and refusal to give up were commendable. Ultimately, their inability to complete the turnaround for all three points was the only blemish on a spirited performance.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both teams' formations unlisted, the match was nonetheless defined by their tactical approaches. Guarani pressed high early, seeking to dominate possession and break quickly, which paid dividends with two goals before the hour mark. However, their defensive organization faltered after their second goal, allowing Ypiranga-RS to exploit spaces and mount a rapid comeback. Ypiranga-RS, meanwhile, adjusted well after falling behind, likely pushing more men forward and increasing their attacking tempo, as evidenced by their quick double. The high number of yellow cards for the visitors suggests a physical, pressing approach to disrupt Guarani's rhythm.
Turning Point
Ypiranga-RS's first goal in the 62nd minute, which shifted momentum and set up their swift equalizer.
Man of the Match
Unknown Ypiranga-RS Goalscorer (66')
Scored the vital equalizer to complete a two-goal comeback and secure a valuable away point.
Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS: Match Preview
Guarani Campinas come into this fixture sitting fourth in Serie C with 26 points from 15 matches, underpinned by a formidable home record (5 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) and a league-leading 28 goals scored. Their recent form is mixed (WLDDL), but a 3-1 home win last time out suggests their attack remains potent at Brinco de Ouro. Ypiranga-RS are just two points behind in sixth, but their away form is a concern: five defeats in seven road games, with only seven goals scored and twelve conceded away from home. Both teams are still very much in the promotion mix, adding weight to every point at this stage.
Statistically, the matchup pits Guarani’s high-output home attack (1.87 goals per game, 15 in 8 home matches) against a Ypiranga defence that concedes 1.71 per away match. Ypiranga’s overall goal environment is slightly higher (56% over 2.5 goals), and they’ve found the net in all of their last five games, but have kept just two clean sheets in that stretch. Guarani’s defensive record is stronger, with a 40% clean sheet rate and only six goals allowed at home all season. Both sides show a tendency for goals after the interval: Guarani and Ypiranga have each scored three first-half and three/five second-half goals respectively in their last five.
The model expects Guarani’s superior home scoring rate and Ypiranga’s away defensive frailty to shape the match, with a moderate probability of both teams scoring (54%) and a slight lean towards over 2.5 goals (53%). The likeliest outcomes cluster around 2-1 and 1-1, reflecting Guarani’s edge at home and Ypiranga’s ability to stay competitive. Set piece and card data are less clear, but the average discipline rates suggest a typical Serie C contest for bookings and corners.
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
BTTS: Yes
53%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS that most previews miss.
- 1Ypiranga-RS have failed to draw a single away match this season (2W, 0D, 5L), an outlier in Serie C.
- 2All three historical meetings between these sides have seen both teams score and at least three goals (2-1, 2-1, 2-2).
- 3Guarani Campinas have allowed just six goals in eight home matches (0.75 per game), compared to Ypiranga’s 1.71 conceded per away game.
Who do you think wins: Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
More Serie C Predictions
The Case For This Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS Prediction
Guarani Campinas have established a strong home base, averaging 1.87 goals per game across the season and boasting a 5-2-1 home record, while Ypiranga-RS have struggled on their travels with five losses in seven away fixtures and just seven goals scored away from home. Both sides are in the upper mix of the table, but Guarani’s attack is notably more productive, and their defence concedes less than a goal per home game, compared to Ypiranga’s 1.71 goals conceded per away match. The underlying rates point to a moderate goal environment, with neither side showing extreme tendencies for or against high-scoring matches, but Guarani’s home output tilts the balance in their favour.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Guarani Campinas average 1.87 goals scored per game this season, with 15 goals in 8 home matches.
Defence
- →Ypiranga-RS have lost 5 of their 7 away matches, conceding 12 goals in those games.
Match Context
- →Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46.67% of Guarani’s matches and 56.25% of Ypiranga’s.
How Guarani Campinas and Ypiranga-RS Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Guarani Campinaslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ypiranga-RSlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Guarani Campinas have picked up seven points from their last five matches, highlighted by a recent 3-1 home win but also hampered by two defeats and two draws in that stretch. Ypiranga-RS arrive with momentum, winning three of their last five and scoring in every outing, though their away form remains a liability. Both teams are in the top six, but Guarani’s home consistency is a clear differentiator.
Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS
Guarani Campinas have dominated this matchup historically, winning both home meetings 2-1 and drawing away. Every head-to-head has featured goals for both sides and at least three total goals, suggesting a tendency for open contests when these teams meet.
Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
2
Guarani Campinas wins
2
Draws
0
Ypiranga-RS wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value edges cannot be calculated. Once odds are published, the model’s moderate lean towards Guarani at home and a slight preference for goal-heavy outcomes should be compared to market prices for potential value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent match shot/corner data not available, reducing confidence in set piece and tempo estimates.
- ⚠️Lineups and late injuries unknown at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Guarani Campinas 2–1 Ypiranga-RSGuarani Campinas are favoured to edge a competitive match, with a 2-1 scoreline the most probable outcome, anchored by their 1.87 goals per game average and Ypiranga’s poor away record. The main threat to this prediction is Ypiranga’s recent uptick in attacking output and the possibility of a draw if Guarani’s attack stalls, as seen in their two home draws this season.
Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS: Common Questions
Who will win Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS?
Guarani Campinas are given a 46% probability of victory, with the draw at 31% and Ypiranga-RS at 23%. The home side’s strong scoring rate and Ypiranga’s away struggles tilt the balance in Guarani’s favour.
Will both teams score in Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS?
There’s a 54% chance of both teams scoring, supported by both sides’ recent BTTS rates (3 of last 5 for each) and the fact that all previous head-to-heads have seen goals for both teams.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in this match?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 53%, with Guarani’s matches landing over 2.5 at a 46.67% rate and Ypiranga’s at 56.25%. Both teams’ attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities suggest a moderate goal environment.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Guarani Campinas vs Ypiranga-RS: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.