Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Guimaraes
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Casa Pia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.17
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 0.45
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
BTTS: Yes
30%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Guimaraes vs Casa Pia(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 2–0
Guimaraes have strong home form and have averaged 2 goals scored per game in their last 5, while Casa Pia have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and average only 0.4 goals per game recently. The clean sheet potential is high given Casa Pia's attacking struggles.
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BTTS: No@ 1.17
Casa Pia have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, and Guimaraes have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5. Both teams have a low BTTS rate recently and season-long defensive trends support this.
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Over/Under 1.5: Over 1.5
Guimaraes' last 5 home games have all seen at least 2 goals, and Casa Pia's defensive record is poor (1.75 conceded per game season, 1.4 in last 5).
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The Case For This Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Prediction
Guimaraes come into this fixture with momentum from a solid run of form at home, while Casa Pia are struggling near the bottom of the table and have found goals hard to come by. The hosts' attack has been productive recently, and their defensive record at home is solid. Casa Pia's away form is poor and their attack has been ineffective, suggesting Guimaraes are well positioned to control the match.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Casa Pia have lost 4 of their last 5, scoring only once and failing to score in 3.
- →Head-to-head is low scoring: 5 of last 8 meetings under 2.5 goals, but Guimaraes have the edge at home.
Defence
- →Guimaraes have won 4 of their last 5 home matches, scoring 10 and conceding just 2 in those games.
- →Casa Pia's away record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 10 losses, 12 scored, 31 conceded.
- →Guimaraes have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5.
🚩 Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Guimaraes and 4.5 for Casa Pia, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 50% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How Guimaraes and Casa Pia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Guimaraeslast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Casa Pialast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Guimaraes have been in good form, winning 3 of their last 5 and scoring freely, with only a heavy loss to Sporting CP marring their recent record. Casa Pia, in contrast, are on a 3-game losing streak, have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, and have not won in 5 matches, highlighting their struggles at both ends of the pitch.
Guimaraes vs Casa Pia — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
What History Says: Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
Historically, this fixture has been balanced, with 4 draws in the last 8 and only 2 wins each. Recent encounters have been low scoring, with 5 of the last 8 under 2.5 goals and 3 goalless draws, suggesting a cautious trend when these sides meet.
Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Head-to-Head History
Last 8 meetings between these sides
2
Guimaraes wins
4
Draws
2
Casa Pia wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
Bookmaker odds are heavily skewed towards Guimaraes and low goals, leaving little value on the main markets. The model finds the price on 'btts: no' and 'under 2.5' to be too short given the probabilities, so no significant edge is present. Correct score markets may offer more value if prices are favorable.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
- ⚠️Casa Pia have drawn 4 of the last 8 H2H, indicating some risk of a low-scoring stalemate.
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for Casa Pia's recent games reduce confidence in their true attacking/defensive levels.
- ⚠️Bookmaker odds are very short on Guimaraes and 'under' markets, limiting value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Guimaraes vs Casa Pia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.