Haiti vs Peru Prediction
Haiti vs Peru: Tight Match Expected as Model Sees No Clear Favorite
International Friendly · World
Haiti
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Peru
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 5
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Haiti vs Peru Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Haiti vs Peru?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Haiti vs Peru Prediction
Haiti and Peru meet in a friendly at Nu Stadium, and the analytics model projects a closely contested encounter. Despite Peru's Elo advantage of +163 points (1695 vs 1532), the win probabilities are nearly even: 36% for Peru, 35% for Haiti, and a 28% chance of a draw. The model's predicted scoreline is a narrow 1-0 win for Peru, but the most likely correct score is actually a 1-1 draw. Haiti's recent attacking form, with a momentum-boosted expected goals (λ) of 1.14, nearly matches Peru's 1.16 after accounting for both sides' finishing and chance quality. Haiti's defensive suppression is slightly below average, but Peru's lack of recent data and only moderate momentum means neither side is expected to dominate. With both teams showing patchy form and limited head-to-head history, this friendly looks set to be a cautious, low-scoring affair.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams lack consistent international form data
Attack
- →Haiti's attack boosted by recent form (attack momentum 1.08)
Match Context
- →Peru holds a +163 Elo rating edge (1695 vs 1532)
- →Blended expected goals nearly level: Haiti 1.14, Peru 1.16
- →Model's top correct score is 1-1 (13% probability)
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
0.97 · 1.63
From xG
1.10 · 1.06
Blended
1.14 · 1.16
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Haiti attacking form lifts their goals ×1.08.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Haiti goals, columns = Peru goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
0-1
11.6%
1-0
11.4%
How the Model Reached This
The model starts by establishing Peru's Elo advantage of 1695 to Haiti's 1532, which would typically make Peru a strong favorite. However, this baseline is moderated by the next layer: expected goals (xG) derived from each team's attacking and defensive factors. Haiti's attack, while below average overall (factor 0.85), is lifted by strong finishing (1.2) and a recent uptick in form (momentum multiplier 1.08), raising their final expected goals to 1.14. Peru's xG inputs are less detailed due to sparse recent data, but their Elo and average factors yield a similar expected goal value of 1.16. After blending Elo-based and xG-based expected goals, the model applies recent-form momentum adjustments. Haiti's attack is slightly 'hot' while their defense has tightened (leak 0.85), whereas Peru's attack is a touch 'cold' (0.97) and their defense a bit more vulnerable (leak 1.03). The final step uses Poisson distributions to simulate scorelines, resulting in a near-even split for win probabilities and a low-confidence prediction of a 1-0 or 1-1 result.
Where the Model Sees Value: Haiti vs Peru(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 5
Model assigns a 47% chance to BTTS (Yes), far above the implied probability of 20% from 5.0 odds.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 5.5
Model sees a 40% chance for over 2.5 goals, much higher than the 18% implied by 5.5 odds.
More Friendlies Predictions
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Haiti vs Peru
The model sees this as a much closer contest than the bookmaker odds suggest. Haiti's win probability (35%) is significantly higher than implied by their odds (1.91, ~52%), making the home win unattractive. However, the draw is priced at 3.2 (implied ~31%), while the model gives it a 28% chance—no clear value. The best value appears on 'Both Teams to Score: Yes' at odds of 5.0, given the model's 47% probability. Similarly, 'Over 2.5 Goals' is priced at 5.5 (implied ~18%), while the model gives it a 40% probability, representing strong value.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Haiti vs Peru Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Haitilast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Perulast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Haiti come in with a solid run, winning 3 of their last 5 and conceding just 0.4 goals per match. Their attack has been efficient, averaging 1.6 goals in that span. Peru's form is less convincing, with just one win in their last five and conceding 1.4 goals per game. Both teams have struggled for consistency, and Peru's recent results suggest some defensive frailty.
Haiti vs Peru — Last 3 Matches
🚩 Haiti vs Peru Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Haiti and 4.5 for Peru, for an expected total of 8.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (65%). Over 8.5: 48% · Over 10.5: 24%.
What History Says: Haiti vs Peru
These sides have met only once in recent history, with Peru edging Haiti 1-0 in the 2016 Copa America. With such limited head-to-head data, it's difficult to draw strong conclusions from past meetings, and both teams have seen significant squad changes since then.
Haiti vs Peru Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Haiti wins
0
Draws
1
Peru wins
Things to Watch: Haiti vs Peru
- ⚠️International friendlies can produce unpredictable lineups and motivation levels.
- ⚠️Peru's recent data is sparse, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Low overall model confidence; stakes should be kept moderate.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Haiti vs Peru: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.