Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg Predictions
Allsvenskan · Sweden
Hammarby FF
Full Time
4 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 1
IF Elfsborg
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Hammarby FF Win
Match Result
7.8/10Hammarby FF Outclass Elfsborg with 4-1 Rout in Stockholm
Hammarby FF delivered a commanding performance at the 3Arena, dismantling IF Elfsborg 4-1 in front of their home fans. The hosts dominated possession with 63% and peppered the Elfsborg goal with 17 shots, six of which were on target. After a measured opening, Hammarby broke the deadlock in the 39th minute, then accelerated after the break with three more goals in a devastating 18-minute spell. Elfsborg, set up in a defensive 5-4-1, struggled to contain the hosts' attacking verve and managed only two shots on target all evening. Their late consolation in the 81st minute was scant reward, as Hammarby cruised to a deserved victory, showcasing attacking flair and midfield control throughout.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
4 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
39' — Goal
M. Madjed opens the scoring for Hammarby after sustained pressure.
58' — Goal
P. Abraham doubles the lead with a well-taken finish.
65' — Goal
Hammarby make it 3-0, effectively sealing the win.
76' — Goal
A fourth for Hammarby, capping a dominant spell.
81' — Goal
L. Östman pulls one back for Elfsborg, but it's too little, too late.
70' — Yellow Card
Elfsborg player booked as frustration boils over.
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF were in complete control from start to finish, dictating play with slick passing and relentless pressure. Their 4-3-3 formation allowed for fluid movement in attack, and the midfield trio orchestrated the tempo. The hosts' ability to create chances was evident in their 17 shots, and their clinical finishing in the second half put the result beyond doubt. Defensively, they remained organized, conceding only a late goal when the contest was already settled.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
IF Elfsborg
Elfsborg set up defensively in a 5-4-1, but struggled to cope with Hammarby's intensity and movement. They saw little of the ball (37% possession) and created few clear chances, managing just eight shots and two on target. Their defensive line was breached repeatedly after halftime, and their only goal came late, when the match was already lost. Discipline was also an issue, as they picked up a yellow card during a frustrating evening.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Hammarby FF's 4-3-3 formation allowed them to dominate the midfield and create overloads in wide areas, stretching Elfsborg's five-man defense. The hosts pressed high, forcing turnovers and keeping Elfsborg pinned deep. Their full-backs supported attacks, while the midfield trio provided both defensive cover and attacking impetus. Elfsborg's 5-4-1 was designed to frustrate, but their lack of width and inability to retain possession left them vulnerable, especially after falling behind. Hammarby's tactical flexibility and attacking width proved decisive, while Elfsborg's attempts to shore up defensively were undone by the home side's relentless movement.
Turning Point
The second goal in the 58th minute broke Elfsborg's resistance and opened the floodgates for Hammarby's dominant spell.
Man of the Match
M. Madjed
Opened the scoring and was instrumental in Hammarby's attacking dominance throughout the match.
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg: Match Preview
Hammarby FF enter this fixture in strong form, having won four of their last five league matches and sitting second in the Allsvenskan with 52 points from 26 games. Their home record is among the league’s best, with 10 wins and just 7 goals conceded in 13 home matches. Elfsborg, currently fifth, have drawn three straight and remain difficult to beat, but their away record (4 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses) and negative goal difference on the road point to limitations against top sides.
Statistically, Hammarby’s attack at home is relentless, averaging 2.77 goals per game, while their defence has been nearly impenetrable, allowing just 0.54 per home match. Elfsborg’s away attack is less potent at 1.38 per game, and their defence concedes 1.31. Hammarby’s last five have featured four clean sheets and only one game where both teams scored, while Elfsborg have managed two clean sheets in the same span but conceded twice in each of their last two away. Both teams generate high corner counts (6.8 per game each in the last five), but Hammarby’s ability to limit shots on target against them (3.8 per game) is a notable edge.
The model expects Hammarby to control the match, leveraging their home strengths and defensive organisation. Elfsborg’s best chance is to score early, but Hammarby’s record of scoring first at home (61%) and their recent defensive form make that unlikely. The most probable outcome is a 2-1 home win, with a moderate chance of a lower-scoring match if Elfsborg’s defence holds out.
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg that most previews miss.
- 1Hammarby have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 league matches, conceding just once.
- 2Elfsborg have drawn 6 of their 13 away matches this season, the highest away draw rate among the top five.
- 3The last three Hammarby home matches against Elfsborg have finished with Hammarby winning to nil (3-0, 3-0, 1-0).
Who do you think wins: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Hammarby FF Win
Hammarby FF have won 10 of 13 at home this season, scoring 36 and conceding just 7, while Elfsborg have only 4 away wins and a negative away goal difference. The model gives the home win a 54% probability based on these splits.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams average over 1.5 goals scored per game and Hammarby’s home matches see 2.77 goals per game, while Elfsborg’s away games average 2.69. The model rates over 2.5 at 56%.
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BTTS: No
Hammarby have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 and 46% clean sheet rate for the season, while Elfsborg have failed to score in 2 of their last 5. BTTS 'No' is slightly favoured at 51%.
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More Allsvenskan Predictions
The Case For This Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg Prediction
This fixture pits Hammarby’s imposing home record against an Elfsborg side that has struggled to turn draws into wins on the road. With 36 goals scored and just 7 conceded at home, Hammarby’s defensive solidity and attacking consistency have underpinned their climb to second in the table. Elfsborg, fifth and nine points back, have drawn six of thirteen away and conceded more than they’ve scored on their travels. The statistical matchup tilts towards a controlled but open contest. Hammarby’s last five league matches have seen them average 1.2 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded, with four clean sheets and just one game where both teams scored. Elfsborg, meanwhile, have scored in three of their last five but conceded twice in each of their last two away games. Both sides average over 6.5 corners per match, suggesting set piece opportunities, but Hammarby’s ability to limit shots on their own goal (3.8 on target conceded per game in the last five) is a key separator. The model projects a moderate goal environment, with Hammarby’s home attack likely to find a breakthrough against an Elfsborg defence conceding 1.31 away from home. The most probable scoreline is 2-1, with Hammarby’s home win probability at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 56%. Elfsborg’s best route is through a first-half goal, but Hammarby’s record of scoring first in 61% of matches at this venue makes that a difficult ask.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Hammarby average 2.77 goals per home game and have won 10 of 13 at home.
Defence
- →Hammarby have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 and have conceded just 7 goals at home all season.
Match Context
- →Elfsborg have drawn 6 of 13 away and have a negative away goal difference (18 for, 17 against).
🚩 Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for Hammarby FF and 5.8 for IF Elfsborg, for an expected total of 11.6. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (72%). Over 8.5: 82% · Over 10.5: 61%.
How Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Hammarby FFlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
IF Elfsborglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hammarby FF have surged into second place with three consecutive league wins, conceding just once in their last five and posting four clean sheets. Elfsborg are unbeaten in their last four but have drawn three straight, including two 2-2 away results, highlighting their resilience but also a lack of cutting edge on the road.
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +5/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg
Hammarby have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning seven of the last ten meetings and keeping five clean sheets in that span. At home, they have beaten Elfsborg to nil in each of the last three encounters, underlining a clear historical edge in Stockholm.
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
Hammarby FF wins
1
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg
With no bookmaker odds available at present, the model cannot identify explicit value edges. However, the statistical probabilities suggest that Hammarby’s home win and under 2.5 goals may be undervalued if market prices mirror recent goal trends and Hammarby’s defensive record. The BTTS market is finely balanced and could offer value on 'No' if odds are above 2.00.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Recent form samples are small; last 5 match stats may not fully reflect underlying team strength.
- ⚠️Both sides are nearly full strength with no reported injuries, but late changes could affect probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Hammarby FF 2–1 IF ElfsborgThe model’s final call is a 2-1 win for Hammarby FF, anchored by their dominant home record (10 wins, 36:7 goal difference) and recent defensive form. The single strongest data point is Hammarby’s 0.54 goals conceded per home match. The main risk is Elfsborg’s tendency to draw away and their ability to score late equalisers, which could tilt the match towards a draw if Hammarby fail to convert early pressure.
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg: Common Questions
Who will win Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
The model gives Hammarby FF a 54% chance of victory, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1. Their home record (10 wins from 13) and defensive strength are decisive factors.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Both teams to score is rated nearly even, with 'No' at 51% and 'Yes' at 49%. Hammarby have kept four clean sheets in their last five, but Elfsborg have scored in three of their last five away.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 56%, based on both teams averaging over 2.5 total goals per match in their respective home and away fixtures this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.