Hereford vs Radcliffe Predictions
National League - North · England
Hereford
Full Time
3 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 0
Radcliffe
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
Match Result
7.4/10Ten-Man Hereford Sweep Aside Radcliffe in Convincing 3-0 Victory
Hereford produced a commanding performance at Edgar Street, dispatching Radcliffe 3-0 despite being reduced to ten men. The hosts struck early, setting the tone with a goal in the 11th minute and maintained their composure even after a red card threatened to derail their momentum. Late strikes in the 84th and 90th minutes sealed a comprehensive win, showcasing Hereford's resilience and attacking sharpness. Radcliffe struggled to make their numerical advantage count after Hereford's dismissal, failing to trouble the home defence and ultimately conceding twice in the closing stages. The result underlines Hereford's credentials as early contenders in the National League North, while Radcliffe will be left to reflect on a missed opportunity to exploit their extra man.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
3 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
11' — Goal
Hereford open the scoring with an early strike.
Red card minute unknown' — Red Card
Hereford reduced to ten men, shifting the momentum.
84' — Goal
Hereford double their lead with a late goal.
90' — Goal
Hereford seal the win with a stoppage-time third.
Hereford
Hereford started brightly and maintained control throughout, even after going down to ten men. They opened the scoring in the 11th minute and, despite the setback of a red card, showed impressive discipline and tactical awareness. Their late double salvo reflected both their attacking intent and ability to exploit Radcliffe's defensive lapses.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Radcliffe
Radcliffe failed to capitalize on their man advantage, lacking penetration and composure in the final third. Despite Hereford's red card, Radcliffe were unable to mount sustained pressure or create meaningful chances, and were twice punished late as they pushed forward in search of an equalizer.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Despite the absence of detailed formation data, Hereford's ability to score early and then defend stoutly with ten men suggests a well-drilled defensive structure and effective use of counter-attacks. Their late goals indicate tactical discipline and the willingness to commit numbers forward when opportunities arose, even when shorthanded. Radcliffe, by contrast, struggled to break down a compact Hereford side and appeared vulnerable when pushing for an equalizer, leaving themselves exposed at the back.
Turning Point
The red card for Hereford could have been a turning point, but instead galvanized the hosts, who regrouped and ultimately extended their lead late on.
Man of the Match
First Goalscorer (11')
Set the tone with the opening goal and led by example as Hereford overcame adversity.
Hereford vs Radcliffe: Match Preview
Hereford and Radcliffe both enter this fixture having lost their opening league matches, with Hereford falling 2-1 at Buxton and Radcliffe losing 2-0 at home to Spalding United. The hosts have managed just one win in their last five across all competitions and have failed to score in two of those, while Radcliffe’s recent run includes three losses, a draw, and a solitary win in a pre-season friendly, with three clean sheets but also three games failing to find the net. Both sides are looking for a spark to ignite their league campaigns, but early evidence points to attacking struggles on both fronts.
Statistically, this is a clash of blunt attacks and leaky defences. Hereford’s last five matches average 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Radcliffe’s figures are even lower at 0.4 scored and 1.2 conceded per game. The opening day results reinforce these trends, with Hereford’s only goal coming in stoppage time and Radcliffe blanking entirely. Both teams have a high rate of matches under 2.5 goals in pre-season and league play, and neither has kept a clean sheet in the league so far. Set-piece and discipline data are unavailable, but the lack of attacking output is the dominant theme.
Given the low scoring rates and early season context, the model expects a cautious, attritional match with few clear chances. Hereford’s marginally superior attack and home advantage nudge them ahead, but the most likely outcomes are a narrow home win or a goalless draw. The probability distribution is heavily weighted toward under 2.5 goals and 'both teams to score: no', reflecting the sides’ recent inability to convert chances.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS: Yes
36%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Hereford vs Radcliffe Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Hereford vs Radcliffe that most previews miss.
- 1Radcliffe have not scored a second-half goal in any of their last five matches.
- 2Hereford’s only clean sheet in their last five came in a 1-0 friendly win, with every other match seeing them concede at least once.
- 3Despite high-scoring head-to-heads in the past, both teams have failed to score in a combined five of their last ten matches.
Who do you think wins: Hereford vs Radcliffe?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Hereford vs Radcliffe(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No
Both sides have struggled to score, with Hereford averaging 0.6 goals and Radcliffe 0.4 goals per game over their last five, and three of Radcliffe’s last five matches have seen them fail to score.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
The combined last 5 match average for goals conceded is just 2.8 per game, and only one of the last five Radcliffe matches has gone over 2.5 goals.
Read more ↓
More National League - North Predictions
The Case For This Hereford vs Radcliffe Prediction
This fixture features two sides coming off opening day defeats, both with limited attacking output and a clear lack of momentum. Hereford’s only goal in their last five came in the 90th minute of their league opener, while Radcliffe have failed to score in three of their last five and sit bottom of the early table. The data points to a low-scoring contest, with neither side showing much cutting edge or defensive solidity, but Hereford’s home advantage and marginally better attacking rates tip the balance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Radcliffe have failed to score in three of their last five matches and average 0.4 goals per game in that span.
- →Head-to-head meetings have produced two draws and three matches with at least three goals, but both teams’ current attacking output is well below those historic rates.
Defence
- →Hereford average 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last five matches.
How Hereford and Radcliffe Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Hereford vs Radcliffe Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Herefordlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Radcliffelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Hereford have managed just one win in their last five matches (including friendlies) and opened the league campaign with a 2-1 defeat at Buxton, their only goal coming in stoppage time. Radcliffe’s form is even more concerning, with just one win in their last five and three matches where they failed to score, including a 2-0 home defeat on the opening day. Both sides are searching for attacking rhythm and defensive stability.
Hereford vs Radcliffe — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +66.67% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.4 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: Hereford vs Radcliffe
The last five meetings between Hereford and Radcliffe have been relatively even, with two draws, two away wins, and one home win for Hereford. Notably, the most recent fixture at Edgar Street ended 3-1 to Hereford, but earlier matches have seen both sides take points away from home. Historically, these encounters have produced goals, but current attacking form suggests a tighter contest.
Hereford vs Radcliffe Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
2
Hereford wins
2
Draws
2
Radcliffe wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Hereford vs Radcliffe
With no bookmaker odds available, value assessment is limited. The model’s strongest conviction is on a low-scoring match, with under 2.5 goals and 'both teams to score: no' both showing high probabilities relative to the teams’ recent scoring rates. If market odds for these are above 1.50, they would likely represent value based on the underlying numbers.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Hereford vs Radcliffe
- ⚠️Only one league match played for each side this season; season averages are based on extremely limited data.
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or set-piece stats available for either side’s recent matches.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value assessment is limited to model probabilities.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Hereford 1–0 RadcliffeThe model forecasts a 1-0 win for Hereford, driven by Radcliffe’s lack of attacking threat—three blanks in their last five and no goals in their league opener. The main risk is that Hereford’s own attack is only marginally better, so a 0-0 draw is nearly as likely if neither side can break through.
Hereford vs Radcliffe: Common Questions
Who will win Hereford vs Radcliffe?
Hereford are given a 43% chance to win, with the draw at 36% and Radcliffe at 21%. Both teams have struggled for goals, but Hereford’s home advantage and slightly better scoring rate tip the balance.
Will both teams score in Hereford vs Radcliffe?
The probability of both teams scoring is just 28%, reflecting that Hereford have failed to score in two of their last five and Radcliffe in three of their last five matches.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Hereford vs Radcliffe?
The model gives a 67% probability for under 2.5 goals, with both sides averaging well under one goal scored per game in their recent matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hereford vs Radcliffe: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.