Horsham vs Farnham Town Predictions
National League - South · England
Horsham
Full Time
1 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 0
Farnham Town
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
6.8/10Farnham Town Edge Horsham in Hard-Fought Away Victory
Farnham Town secured a gritty 2-1 victory over Horsham at The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium, capitalizing on a strong first-half display to claim all three points in this National League - South encounter. The visitors struck first in the 16th minute, setting the tone for a competitive afternoon, before Horsham responded with an equalizer in the 27th. However, Farnham Town regained their lead just before the break with a crucial goal in the 42nd minute. Despite a spirited effort from Horsham in the second half, they were unable to find a way past a resolute Farnham defense. The match was not without its edge, as the referee brandished four yellow cards—three to the visitors and one to the hosts—highlighting the intensity of the contest. Ultimately, Farnham Town's clinical finishing and disciplined defending proved decisive.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
1 - 2
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
16' — Goal
Farnham Town take the lead with the opening goal.
27' — Goal
Horsham equalize, bringing the match level.
42' — Goal
Farnham Town restore their lead just before halftime.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Three Farnham Town players and one Horsham player are booked in a competitive contest.
Horsham
Horsham showed plenty of fight, especially after falling behind early, and managed to level the score in the 27th minute. However, conceding again just before halftime left them chasing the game for much of the second half. Despite their efforts, they struggled to break down Farnham's organized defense and lacked the cutting edge in the final third to force an equalizer. The hosts maintained discipline, picking up just one yellow card, and kept the game competitive until the final whistle, but ultimately could not convert their opportunities into points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Farnham Town
Farnham Town started brightly, taking the lead in the 16th minute and showing attacking intent throughout the first half. After being pegged back by Horsham, they responded well to restore their advantage before halftime. In the second half, Farnham focused on game management, absorbing pressure and using tactical fouls when necessary, as evidenced by their three yellow cards. Their ability to convert chances and defend their lead under pressure was key to their away victory, demonstrating both attacking efficiency and defensive solidity.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both teams' formations unavailable, the match's tactical narrative was shaped by Farnham Town's early attacking intent and subsequent defensive organization. After taking the lead, Farnham pressed high and looked to exploit spaces, but once ahead for the second time, they dropped deeper, focusing on structured defending and disrupting Horsham's rhythm with tactical fouls. Horsham, meanwhile, responded well to adversity, pushing forward after falling behind but struggled to penetrate Farnham's compact shape in the second half. Substitutions and formation changes are unclear, but the pattern of play suggests Farnham were content to cede possession and protect their lead after halftime, while Horsham pressed for an equalizer but lacked the incisiveness required in the final third.
Turning Point
Farnham Town's second goal in the 42nd minute, restoring their lead just before halftime, proved decisive and shifted the momentum firmly in their favor.
Man of the Match
Farnham Town Goalscorer (42')
Scored the match-winning goal and led the line with composure in a crucial moment.
Horsham vs Farnham Town: Match Preview
Horsham enter this fixture unbeaten in league play, sitting sixth with five points from three matches and a perfect defensive record at home. Farnham Town, by contrast, have struggled for consistency, losing two of their opening three and ranking 17th, with a solitary away win their only bright spot. The early table suggests a gap in both form and defensive reliability.
Statistically, the shape of this match is defined by Horsham's ability to shut out opponents at The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium—two clean sheets from two home games and just one goal conceded in total. Farnham Town's attack has yet to find rhythm, averaging just 0.67 goals per game and failing to score in one of three league outings. Both teams' matches have skewed heavily under 2.5 goals, with only one of six combined league games breaking that mark. No meaningful set-piece or shooting data is available, but the clean sheet rates and failed-to-score counts point to a contest likely decided by a single goal.
The model projects a low-scoring affair, with Horsham's defensive rates and home advantage tilting the probabilities in their favour. The most likely outcomes are 1-0 or 0-0, as Farnham Town's away attack faces a disciplined Horsham back line. The primary risk is that early-season small samples may understate attacking potential, but the underlying rates support a cautious, defence-first prediction.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 0.65
Over 2.5 Goals
27%
BTTS: Yes
33%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Horsham vs Farnham Town Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Horsham vs Farnham Town that most previews miss.
- 1Horsham's league games have averaged just 1.33 total goals, with none exceeding two goals.
- 2Farnham Town have scored only once before half-time in their three league matches.
- 3Across both teams' six league games, five have finished under 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: Horsham vs Farnham Town?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Horsham vs Farnham Town(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both sides combine for just 1.67 goals per game across their six league matches, with Horsham yet to see a game go over 2.5 and Farnham Town only once. Defensive solidity at home (Horsham: 0 conceded in two home games) and a lack of attacking punch from Farnham (0.67 scored per game) point to a low-scoring contest.
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Match Result: Horsham Win
Horsham are unbeaten in three league matches (W1 D2), have not conceded at home, and hold a 66.7% clean sheet rate. Farnham Town sit 17th, have lost two of three, and average just 1 goal per away game.
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BTTS: No
Horsham have kept clean sheets in two of three league games and have failed to score in three of their last five, while Farnham Town have scored just twice in three league outings. Only three of their combined six league games have seen both teams score.
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More National League - South Predictions
The Case For This Horsham vs Farnham Town Prediction
This fixture profiles as a low-scoring, tightly contested encounter, shaped by Horsham's defensive consistency and Farnham Town's modest attacking output. Horsham's home record and early-season defensive numbers set the statistical baseline, while Farnham's limited away threat and league position reinforce the model's conservative goal projection.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Horsham have not conceded a goal at home in league play (2 matches, 2 clean sheets).
- →Farnham Town average just 0.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per league match.
Match Context
- →Combined, these sides have seen under 2.5 goals in five of six league games this season.
How Horsham and Farnham Town Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Horsham vs Farnham Town Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Horshamlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Farnham Townlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Horsham are unbeaten in league competition, with a 'WDD' form string and a standout defensive record—just one goal conceded and two home clean sheets. Farnham Town have been less consistent, losing two of their three league matches and scoring only twice, though they did claim a recent away win at Slough Town.
Horsham vs Farnham Town — Last 5 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Horsham vs Farnham Town
The sole recent head-to-head saw Horsham win 2-0 at home in the FA Trophy, echoing the current statistical edge in their favour. No other recent meetings are on record, but that result aligns with Horsham's defensive home trend.
Horsham vs Farnham Town Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Horsham wins
0
Draws
1
Farnham Town wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Horsham vs Farnham Town
With bookmaker odds unavailable, explicit value edges cannot be calculated. However, the model's strong lean to under 2.5 goals (72%) and Horsham's defensive home bias would likely offer value if market prices implied a more open contest. The data-driven edge is clearest on low goal expectancy.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Horsham vs Farnham Town
- ⚠️Limited sample size: only three league matches per side, increasing variance in early-season rates.
- ⚠️No shots, possession, or set-piece data available; model relies on goal and result rates.
- ⚠️Absence of bookmaker odds prevents explicit value calculation.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Horsham 1–0 Farnham TownThe data points to a narrow Horsham win, most plausibly 1-0, underpinned by their 66.7% clean sheet rate and Farnham Town's limited attacking output. The strongest statistical anchor is Horsham's perfect defensive home record. The main risk is that early-season volatility or a single defensive lapse could swing the result or open the game up unexpectedly.
Horsham vs Farnham Town: Common Questions
Who will win Horsham vs Farnham Town?
Horsham are favoured, with the model assigning them a 47% chance of victory, compared to 20% for Farnham Town and a 33% probability of a draw. Horsham's unbeaten start and defensive home record underpin this edge.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Horsham vs Farnham Town?
The model gives a 72% probability to under 2.5 goals, based on both teams' league matches averaging fewer than 1.7 goals combined and only one of six games going over this line.
Will both teams score in Horsham vs Farnham Town?
Both teams to score is rated at just 29%, with 71% for 'No'. Horsham have kept two clean sheets in three league matches, and Farnham Town have failed to score in one of three, making a shutout likely.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Horsham vs Farnham Town: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.