IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF Predictions
Allsvenskan · Sweden
IF Elfsborg
Full Time
2 - 0
AI predicted 2 - 1
Degerfors IF
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: IF Elfsborg Win
Match Result
6.9/10Elfsborg Control Degerfors in 2-0 Home Victory
IF Elfsborg delivered a composed and controlled performance to secure a 2-0 win over Degerfors IF in the Allsvenskan. The home side struck early through their attacking midfield line and maintained dominance throughout, capping the result with a late second goal to seal all three points. Degerfors struggled to create clear chances, registering just a single shot on target, as Elfsborg’s midfield dictated the tempo and limited the visitors’ attacking threat. Elfsborg’s superiority was evident in both possession and attacking intent, boasting 60% of the ball and firing 13 shots, five of which tested Degerfors goalkeeper M. Igonen. The visitors, meanwhile, were forced to defend deep and resorted to physicality, picking up two yellow cards as frustration grew. Ultimately, Elfsborg’s patience and quality in key moments made the difference, while Degerfors never truly threatened a comeback.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
2 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
13' — Goal
J. Beck opens the scoring for Elfsborg, finishing a well-worked move to give the hosts an early lead.
55' — Yellow Card
Degerfors pick up their first yellow card as frustration mounts in midfield.
74' — Yellow Card
Second Degerfors player booked, highlighting their physical approach as they chase the game.
87' — Goal
L. Östman doubles Elfsborg's lead, finishing off a late counterattack to secure the points.
IF Elfsborg
Elfsborg asserted control from the outset, utilizing their 4-2-3-1 formation to dominate possession and dictate the pace. Their midfield trio orchestrated attacks with fluid passing and movement, resulting in an early breakthrough and sustained pressure throughout the match. Defensively, they remained organized and largely untroubled, conceding just one shot on target all game. The hosts’ patience was rewarded with a late second goal, reflecting their ability to manage the game and capitalize on Degerfors’ stretched defense. Eight corners and 13 total shots underscored their attacking intent, while discipline at the back ensured a clean sheet.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF struggled to gain a foothold against a well-drilled Elfsborg side. Their 4-1-3-2 setup failed to generate sustained attacking pressure, with just six shots and only one on target across 90 minutes. Forced to defend for long stretches, Degerfors relied on physicality—committing 12 fouls and collecting two yellow cards—as they attempted to disrupt Elfsborg’s rhythm. Despite some resilience in defense, Degerfors lacked creativity in midfield and rarely threatened on the break. Their best moments came from set pieces, but these failed to yield a breakthrough, and a late concession ended any slim hopes of a comeback.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Elfsborg’s 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dominate the midfield, with O. Nordvall and J. Magnússon providing a solid base for the creative trio ahead. Their full-backs pushed high, stretching Degerfors and creating overloads on the flanks, which led to numerous corners and sustained pressure. The hosts’ pressing forced Degerfors into rushed clearances, while their own transitions were quick and purposeful. Degerfors’ 4-1-3-2 setup left them outnumbered in central areas, and their attempts to play direct were easily contained by Elfsborg’s disciplined back four. As the match wore on, Degerfors became increasingly physical, but tactical substitutions and a late push for an equalizer left them exposed, leading to Elfsborg’s decisive second goal.
Turning Point
The opening goal by J. Beck in the 13th minute set the tone, forcing Degerfors to chase the game and play into Elfsborg’s hands.
Man of the Match
J. Beck
Scored the crucial opener and was instrumental in linking midfield and attack throughout Elfsborg's dominant display.
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF: Match Preview
Elfsborg arrive for this clash in their best form of the campaign, stringing together four consecutive wins across league and cup, including a 3-0 home victory over Vasteras and a gritty 1-0 away win at Mjallby. This surge has propelled them into the top five and reignited their push for European places. Degerfors, previously mired in a relegation scrap, have found life in August with three straight wins, including a 2-1 upset at Malmo and a 3-0 home triumph over IFK Goteborg, lifting them out of the bottom two and restoring belief.
The tactical battle will hinge on Elfsborg's high shot volume and early aggression—averaging 13.2 shots and seven first-half goals in their last five—against a Degerfors side that has been clinical but not prolific in creating chances. Degerfors' defence remains a concern, with just one clean sheet in five and 1.59 goals conceded per match on the season, but their recent attacking efficiency (ten goals in three matches) is a warning sign for any complacency. Both teams have shown a habit of fast starts, and set-piece situations could be decisive given their combined average of 7.4 corners per match recently.
The model expects Elfsborg's home advantage and defensive solidity to prove decisive, but Degerfors' momentum and knack for taking their chances mean a close contest is likely. A 2-1 home win is forecast, with Elfsborg's ability to control the early stages and Degerfors' counter-attacking threat shaping the narrative. The most plausible risk is Degerfors sustaining their clinical finishing and forcing another high-scoring draw, as seen in several recent H2H meetings.
How IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
IF Elfsborglast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Degerfors IFlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Elfsborg are in the midst of their hottest streak this season, winning four straight and outscoring opponents 11-1 in their last three matches. Degerfors have also found form after a dire July, stringing together three consecutive wins and scoring ten goals in that span, but their underlying numbers suggest this run may be fragile. Both sides are trending upwards, but Elfsborg's momentum is underpinned by stronger defensive metrics.
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF that most previews miss.
- 1Elfsborg have scored seven of their last ten league goals in the first half, highlighting their fast-starting profile.
- 2Degerfors have failed to keep a clean sheet in six of their last eight away matches, conceding an average of 1.63 goals per game on the road.
- 3Four of the last six H2H meetings have seen both teams score, with three finishing level.
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Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
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The Case For This IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF Prediction
Elfsborg enter this fixture riding a four-game winning streak, their best run of the season, and have rediscovered both defensive stability and attacking sharpness at the perfect time. Degerfors, meanwhile, have shaken off a miserable July with three straight wins in all competitions, including a clinical cup performance and a surprise away victory at Malmo. The clash brings together two sides whose recent momentum belies their season-long records, setting up a contest defined by belief and renewed confidence. Statistically, Elfsborg's recent form is underpinned by an average of 13.2 shots and 2.2 goals per game in their last five, while conceding just 0.8. Their pressing and transitions have yielded early goals—seven in the first half over that stretch. Degerfors, though less dominant in the underlying numbers (7.6 shots, 2.6 on target per game last five), have been ruthlessly efficient in front of goal lately, with L. Fritzson and D. Vukojevic combining for five goals in their last two league outings. Both teams have shown a tendency to start quickly, with seven first-half goals apiece in their last five matches, suggesting an open first 45 minutes. Given Elfsborg's home advantage, sharper defensive record, and the consistency of their attack, the model expects them to edge a competitive match. Degerfors' recent resurgence can't be ignored, but their season-long away defensive frailties (13 conceded in 8) and lower shot volume point to Elfsborg having the upper hand—though a Degerfors goal looks likely given their current streak and H2H trends.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Elfsborg have won four consecutive matches, scoring 11 and conceding just one in their last three competitive outings.
- →Degerfors have also won three in a row, but average just 7.6 shots per game in that span and have kept only one clean sheet.
- →Elfsborg have kept three clean sheets in their last five, while Degerfors have conceded in six of their last eight away matches.
Where the Model Sees Value: IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: IF Elfsborg Win
Elfsborg have surged to four straight wins across all competitions, averaging 2.2 goals per game and keeping three clean sheets in their last five, while Degerfors—despite a three-match winning run—have struggled for consistency away, conceding 1.63 goals per away match this season.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have seen a recent uptick in attacking output, with Elfsborg and Degerfors combining for 4.2 goals per game over their last five matches; Degerfors' defensive record (1.59 goals conceded per game this season) further supports the likelihood of three or more goals.
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BTTS: Yes
Both sides have scored in four of the last six H2H meetings, and Degerfors have found the net in three consecutive matches, while Elfsborg have conceded in three of their last five league games.
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More Allsvenskan Predictions
🚩 IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for IF Elfsborg and 4.2 for Degerfors IF, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 36%.
What History Says: IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF
Elfsborg have dominated the recent head-to-head, unbeaten in nine of the last ten meetings, but draws have been common—five in that stretch. Both teams have scored in four of the last six encounters, and the most frequent result has been a score draw, reflecting the competitive nature of this fixture.
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
IF Elfsborg wins
4
Draws
1
Degerfors IF wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF
With bookmaker odds unavailable, the model cannot quantify specific value edges. However, the probability gap between Elfsborg's win chance (54%) and Degerfors' (18%) is wider than season averages would suggest, reflecting the model's heavy weighting of recent form. The over 2.5 goals and both teams to score markets also look attractive given the attacking momentum on both sides.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF
- ⚠️Both sides are on strong short-term streaks, so the model's emphasis on momentum increases variance.
- ⚠️Degerfors' recent attacking outburst may not be sustainable given their low shot volume and season-long away struggles.
- ⚠️No injury or suspension data is available, but recent lineups appear stable for both teams.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so value edges cannot be quantified.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
IF Elfsborg 2–1 Degerfors IFElfsborg's four-game winning streak, underpinned by a surge in attacking output and defensive discipline, is the single strongest signal in the data and tips the balance in their favour. The predicted 2-1 scoreline reflects both sides' current momentum and the likelihood of an open, competitive contest. The biggest risk to this call is Degerfors' recent clinical finishing continuing to outstrip their shot volume, potentially forcing a draw or even snatching a late result.
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF: Common Questions
Who will win IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
The model gives Elfsborg a 54% chance of victory, with Degerfors at 18% and a draw at 28%. Elfsborg's four-match winning streak and strong home record make them favourites, but Degerfors' recent resurgence means an upset can't be ruled out.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
There's a 54% probability of both teams scoring, supported by both sides' recent attacking form and a strong BTTS trend in recent head-to-head meetings (four of the last six).
Can Degerfors' winning run continue away at Elfsborg?
While Degerfors have won three on the bounce, their away defensive record (1.63 goals conceded per game) and low shot volume (7.6 per game last five) suggest their streak is at risk against an in-form Elfsborg side.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.